Northeastah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 00z Euro has initialized...here we go. Bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzard24 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is a snowstorm for sne area i dont know why some people worry about every model run , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro already looks more amplified through 24h than 36h on the 12z run...this is likely going to be an ugly NW solution if nothing changes from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 NYC already skunked at 42h, and its not going to stop there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is a snowstorm for sne area i dont know why some people worry about every model run , It's become hard to consider the individual runs seriously after the last storm, when the models proved they couldn't handle an overrunning event 18 hours out. I honestly wonder if we often forecast too much based on what the "trends" are in computer models instead of just considering common sense and how the general H5 set-up has produced in the past. I'd be worried if the Euro was well west but it doesn't mean the storm can't drift back east; all the storms this winter have had large corrections, and usually to the SE. Boxing Day was the one exception and models figured out it wouldn't miss the coast by 250 miles about a day in advance of the storm...at that point you're almost looking at radar anyway. So lots of time for this to change around but obviously we know areas like the Poconos and Catskills have a history of doing well in these moisture-laden late-season systems like March '93, March '58, April '07, May '77, etc. These juicy cut-offs late in the season tend to hug the coast and crush these locales, but SNE is probably good for some snow as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0C 850mb line just S of the CT/MA border at 54h. But its snowing heavily north of that including BOS. But it looks like it will flip by 60h for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0C 850mb line just S of the CT/MA border at 54h. But its snowing heavily north of that including BOS. But it looks like it will flip by 60h for sure. Are we OK down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 0C 850mb line just S of the CT/MA border at 54h. But its snowing heavily north of that including BOS. But it looks like it will flip by 60h for sure. Kevin is going to jump into one of his death buckets with the chipmunks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WOW...kicker does enough work to collapse the 850 line SE at 60H....monster hit for interior SNE and even BOS might get away with it too. 850 0C line runs from about S Weymouth on the south shore to just N of PVD to skierinvermont's fanny near Old Lyme CT...with the -4C just NW of ORH to Litchfield county CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Are we OK down here? No you are skunked pretty bad...but it flips back to snow int he CCB, you might pick up some decent accumulation during that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm just going to keep the weenie hope alive...if the 12z runs tomorrow today come in as amped as tonight's 0z runs and as far NW then I'll toss in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Verbatim snow totals for Boston? No you are skunked pretty bad...but it flips back to snow int he CCB, you might pick up some decent accumulation during that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WOW...kicker does enough work to collapse the 850 line SE at 60H....monster hit for interior SNE and even BOS might get away with it too. 850 0C line runs from about S Weymouth on the south shore to just N of PVD to skierinvermont's fanny near Old Lyme CT...with the -4C just NW of ORH to Litchfield county CT. So I'm good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No you are skunked pretty bad...but it flips back to snow int he CCB, you might pick up some decent accumulation during that. Looks like 1-3 down to the city on the backend but the trend hasn't been good with this storm..... although it's pretty unusual to see the Euro east of the GFS-- usually, it's the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Best CCB is out toward ALB, but there is a hellecious WCB that crushes interior SNE and even toward BOS. Ekster's call of a sfc low over the canal was right. Looks like it tracks right over there. But it def tucked the 850 low enough to keep most areas from BOS and westward all or mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So I'm good? You change to rain by 54h...but probably back to snow. N of the pike is better off in avoiding rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Best CCB is out toward ALB, but there is a hellecious WCB that crushes interior SNE and even toward BOS. Ekster's call of a sfc low over the canal was right. Looks like it tracks right over there. But it def tucked the 850 low enough to keep most areas from BOS and westward all or mostly snow. Sounds pretty good up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Verbatim snow totals for Boston? BOS is a tough call this run...it might be like 6" at logan airport or something while its 10" in Jerry's backyard in Brookline. But those details really do not matter still 48+ hours out. I think the main concern is getting the NW trend to stabilize and hopefully tick back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What is CCB? These acronyms kill me, and I usually figure them out like 3 days later. Sounds pretty good up here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 You change to rain by 54h...but probably back to snow. N of the pike is better off in avoiding rain. Oh well this isn't too bad...just as long as we don't continue seeing a NW jog on the next series of model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah, I was a big fan of the 12+ prophesied by the NAM BOS is a tough call this run...it might be like 6" at logan airport or something while its 10" in Jerry's backyard in Brookline. But those details really do not matter still 48+ hours out. I think the main concern is getting the NW trend to stabilize and hopefully tick back SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 No you are skunked pretty bad...but it flips back to snow int he CCB, you might pick up some decent accumulation during that. The ECM always has a huge warm bias though; I remember it showed the 1/27 storm as rain for NYC even with a track near the benchmark and Central Park ended up with 19". I feel like this could be a decent snowfall here if we take about 1C off the 850s for the bias, although it will have trouble accumulating on warm and wet ground. NYC is probably going to be too warm for this storm, as the trend has been towards closing off a little later and further inland, but they're not out of the game yet in my opinion. It's interesting to see such a wide spread in the models at Day 2 with the NAM still favoring a single storm that re-intensifies extremely late, the GFS being so far west with the coastal, and then the ECM having a compromise. Best CCB is out toward ALB, but there is a hellecious WCB that crushes interior SNE and even toward BOS. Ekster's call of a sfc low over the canal was right. Looks like it tracks right over there. But it def tucked the 850 low enough to keep most areas from BOS and westward all or mostly snow. Who gets the maximum QPF as snow? In other words, where does one chase this storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 whats the qpf on the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GooGoo Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What is CCB? These acronyms kill me, and I usually figure them out like 3 days later. Cold Conveyor Belt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Not nearly as bad as the GFS then.. I would love to see some snow at the end of this thing and Euro is keeping my hope alive. I find these rain--> snow changeovers in intense CCBs to be pretty exciting. Otherwise a trip to VT may be in store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Not nearly as bad as the GFS then.. I would love to see some snow at the end of this thing and Euro is keeping my hope alive. I find these rain--> snow changeovers in intense CCBs to be pretty exciting It's not anything like the GFS, it's pretty far east but the low just doesn't develop early enough for us. If it bombed you could pick up a significant snowfall. It's going to be hard to stay all snow at your house though....Wagons north to the Greens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 whats the qpf on the euro? BOS is about 1.1" mostly snow? They are tough...I'd be conservative there on this run. ORH is 1.35" or so all snow. Your BY is probably 1.1 or so mostly/all snow, though you get a bit iffy for a brief period around 54h as the 0C 850 line goes from like 20 miles S of BOS to BDL. The storm occludes pretty fast though and the amounts decrease as you go north...not sure if that will be the case in reality. I would have figured VT would get more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's not anything like the GFS, it's pretty far east but the low just doesn't develop early enough for us. If it bombed you could pick up a significant snowfall. It's going to be hard to stay all snow at your house though....Wagons north to the Greens! Doesn't matter how hard it bombed .. I'm not seeing significant snowfall on a CC canal track in April in coastal SE CT. I'd need a BM bomb, maybe ACK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Doesn't matter how hard it bombed .. I'm not seeing significant snowfall on a CC track in April in coastal SE CT Yeah you are skunked on this track...we need to hope it wobbles SE again...I'd feel a lot better for most of SNE, including the interior hills, if it did. Euro was a nice sign though that it didn't go crazy and try and track it up inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 BOS is about 1.1" mostly snow? They are tough...I'd be conservative there on this run. ORH is 1.35" or so all snow. Your BY is probably 1.1 or so mostly/all snow, though you get a bit iffy for a brief period around 54h as the 0C 850 line goes from like 20 miles S of BOS to BDL. The storm occludes pretty fast though and the amounts decrease as you go north...not sure if that will be the case in reality. I would have figured VT would get more. East Slope of Berks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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