TalcottWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 By 2:15 Oh, definite bed time. Cya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Prob around 2:00-2:15 I'm already past bed time. Only the beer and potential snow storm keeping me going. G'nite all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GGEM is tucked in closer than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GGEM is SE of other guidance, but def NW of its 12z run...has ptype issues probably to about 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will, what do you think of the Day 8-9 system? Can that get sheared by the impressive confluence and form a second wave in the Mid-Atlantic that hits us? Temps look plenty cold at that point, -10C 850s get down to NYC after the system. We just need to avoid too much WAA and have the primary further south like the 12z GGEM, not over the Dakotas like 0z GFS. Still seems like the +PNA may be in place at that juncture. That's probably the last chance-- if that has any chance. After 4/10 accumulating snowfall chances decrease exponentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GGEM is SE of other guidance, but def NW of its 12z run...has ptype issues probably to about 495. I'm gonna stand my ground and expect an evenutal apex to this trend, which I think is near. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ensembles came west from 12z and take the low just a smidge east of the benchmark.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I'm gonna stand my ground and expect an evenutal apex to this trend, which I think is near. I hope it stops and ticks back SE...but I'm starting to think we are in trouble. This is a bigger jump NW than I envisioned in one model run. We'll get snow out of this, I have no doubt, but we may be in for an ugly rain on top of the front end stuff. I really hope that doesn't happen, but it just might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I hope it stops and ticks back SE...but I'm starting to think we are in trouble. This is a bigger jump NW than I envisioned in one model run. We'll get snow out of this, I have no doubt, but we may be in for an ugly rain on top of the front end stuff. I really hope that doesn't happen, but it just might. I'm not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ensembles came west from 12z and take to low just a smidge east of the benchmark.. GFS ensemble mean is a huge weenie solution for most of SNE...but I think they are still too far east...I hope the Euro can come in a bit tamer than some of these 00z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I hope it stops and ticks back SE...but I'm starting to think we are in trouble. This is a bigger jump NW than I envisioned in one model run. We'll get snow out of this, I have no doubt, but we may be in for an ugly rain on top of the front end stuff. I really hope that doesn't happen, but it just might. Might turn into a hit for your alma mater, Will. Right now Logan11 will get creamed if the GFS verifies, too bad he's down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is ours and remember that I said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I kind of love this edge of the seat type stuff...could see something like 8-16'' of snow here or 1-3'' of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS ensemble mean is a huge weenie solution for most of SNE...but I think they are still too far east...I hope the Euro can come in a bit tamer than some of these 00z runs. It is for you guys, But it took a pretty big jump west from 12z, A couple ticks west from there would still be a great track for most here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 This is ours and remember that I said that. I hope you are right...the only good thing is its not doing this 24h out...so it has time to wobble back SE a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I hope you are right...the only good thing is its not doing this 24h out...so it has time to wobble back SE a bit. GFS is the only bad model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Yeah people have been speaking in generalities about April snows versus March and years where little fell in March..... But you really should probably group them historically as like late March/early April events. The sun angle and seasonal warm up is so rapid after April 1st that a major event on April 15th is several times tougher to pull off. That's probably the last chance-- if that has any chance. After 4/10 accumulating snowfall chances decrease exponentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The thing that worrys me about this is the more amped this becomes the more west or inland it will want to track, And it does not have to be much further west to create problems for most on here, The ensembles get this down to 984 mb just outside the GOM, And the op has it at 972 mb over Easport Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 GFS is the only bad model. Ukie is close to being ugly...its not the verbatim solutions that bother me so much (aside from OP GFS), its the large jump NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What's making the GFS so amped here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Ukie is close to being ugly...its not the verbatim solutions that bother me so much (aside from OP GFS), its the large jump NW. Txt me a euro update and I'm sure I will awaken, but for now...GN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What's making the GFS so amped here? Yeah I saw Ray Martin say that the whole GFS run is like 3 degrees warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will have to wait until the morning to see the Euro, Hopefully it holds serve or is SE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Only another 30 min or so until the Euro puts the dagger into this threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 00z 3/30 runs are not going to decide anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I don't think the Euro will lurch NW, big hit for WNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 00z 3/30 runs are not going to decide anything. The old saying "you can't win the game in the first 6 innings but you can lose it" might ring true here. We'll def need to see a wobble back SE to feel good in SNE...not impossible, but its tough with such a big jump NW at 00z. Hopefully the models over trended a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The old saying "you can't win the game in the first 6 innings but you can lose it" might ring true here. We'll def need to see a wobble back SE to feel good in SNE...not impossible, but its tough with such a big jump NW at 00z. Hopefully the models over trended a bit. What do you think the models are seeing that's causing the NW trend? Also, could the GFS just be on crack given the ENS are so unsupportive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What do you think the models are seeing that's causing the NW trend? Also, could the GFS just be on crack given the ENS are so unsupportive? They are really focusing on that 2nd s/w now...its just going nuts on the 00z runs. The Hudson Bay psuedo block just isn't providing as much resistance. The hope is that we see it change a bit tomorrow at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 00z Euro has initialized...here we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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