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Tulip Trouncer Threat III - April Fool's Joke


Baroclinic Zone

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well i only have .6 inches for the whole month here so i am looking for a few more inches in the last inning...

i do not know if the lower valley is going to have an epic snowfall late thurs and fri but I do think that even climo would say that it is about time for at least a few inches of paste..perhaps as much as a half foot or a bit more even...

for feet of that down here....well the stars will all have to really align perfectly lol

March for you will finish with 0.6. Snow will start soon after midnight 4/1.

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Well you were wrong, a south trend did occur and most of us missed out on meaningful snow outside of the massachusetts alps. At least be intellectually honest you weren't talking about yby at the time, we were talking about an overall south trend in the storm which you outright mocked.

Better luck this time!

My mom, across the street from Narragansett Bay in Jamestown picked up 1-2" while I had an occasional flake at Wachusett and at home.... that storm was a bust for pretty much every met, hobbyist, and noose maker.

Not only did it go south, but it was destroyed by convection, PV, and Ray's methane production

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My mom, across the street from Narragansett Bay in Jamestown picked up 1-2" while I had an occasional flake at Wachusett and at home.... that storm was a bust for pretty much every met, hobbyist, and noose maker.

Not only did it go south, but it was destroyed by convection, PV, and Ray's methane production

All in all the point was let's not rule out anything. Many were very certain a week ago the models/they were right and we had a stack of reasons to boot. And that was at 24/36 hours!

We are always certain right up until we are not.

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The streak of sh*tty Marches continue. (although I did better this year than last)

Do you know if the months that SNE did ok in April if we had decent Marches?

And do you miss Bailey's Ice Cream?

Almost every big April has had a decent March...the one big exception was 1987. April 1987 actually had two snow events..it had the huge one on the 28th and 29th that gave 2 feet to your area, but there was a smaller one earlier in the month that gave 3-6"

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All in all the point was let's not rule out anything. Many were very certain a week ago the models/they were right and we had a stack of reasons to boot. And that was at 24/36 hours!

We are always certain right up until we are not.

Sallient point. Last week sucked. This one feels different. Folks were looking at this on March 20th as having possibilities. Of course, Tip's Dil might be in the wings... Let's hope for good data ingestion.

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Well you were wrong, a south trend did occur and most of us missed out on meaningful snow outside of the massachusetts alps. At least be intellectually honest you weren't talking about yby at the time, we were talking about an overall south trend in the storm which you outright mocked.

Better luck this time!

Scott, I'm kidding around. But, if you want to get into it, the reason I mocked (in a loving, nice way) you harping on the south trend was the fact that you called for OTS or SE tracks often this Winter and often that turned out to not be the case. I took note of this because, despite my ribbing, I feel you are knowledgeable and I read your posts closely. So imagine the unnecessary pain you inflicted on me when, erroneously, you called for the Boxing day storm to whiff NW areas. Fortunately, we were buried here but the emotional damage was done. Hopefully you won't be as reckless with your prognostications in the future.

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Almost every big April has had a decent March...the one big exception was 1987. April 1987 actually had two snow events..it had the huge one on the 28th and 29th that gave 2 feet to your area, but there was a smaller one earlier in the month that gave 3-6"

April 2003 might be the exception, the South Coast got good accumulations I believe, but March was really a quiet month in the otherwise prolific 02-03 winter.

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The streak of sh*tty Marches continue. (although I did better this year than last)

Do you know if the months that SNE did ok in April if we had decent Marches?

And do you miss Bailey's Ice Cream?

The big Aprils off hand are 1982, 1996, 1997, 2003.

1981-2 had a sub par Feb/March.

1995-6...well you know..

1996-7....strong comeback March/April from putrid Feb.

Other big ones...

1892-3: sub par March

1893-4: awful March, only a T at Boston...wasn't the current location back then but you get the drift.

So I guess it's variable.

I don't recall ever having Bailey's. I almost never eat ice cream...mostly frozen yogurt or soft serve.

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Almost every big April has had a decent March...the one big exception was 1987. April 1987 actually had two snow events..it had the huge one on the 28th and 29th that gave 2 feet to your area, but there was a smaller one earlier in the month that gave 3-6"

What about March 1982, Will? I remember Jan and April being really snowy that year, but not the other months.

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The big Aprils off hand are 1982, 1996, 1997, 2003.

1981-2 had a sub par Feb/March.

1995-6...well you know..

1996-7....strong comeback March/April from putrid Feb.

Other big ones...

1892-3: sub par March

1893-4: awful March, only a T at Boston...wasn't the current location back then but you get the drift.

So I guess it's variable.

I don't recall ever having Bailey's. I almost never eat ice cream...mostly frozen yogurt or soft serve.

April 1875, April 1915 and April 1924 were also really good, but offhand I can't remember what the previous Marches were like.

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April 2003 might be the exception, the South Coast got good accumulations I believe, but March was really a quiet month in the otherwise prolific 02-03 winter.

Mar 6, 2003 gave the south shore and CT/RI a very good event, so it was not a quiet month there.

snow030603.gif

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Almost every big April has had a decent March...the one big exception was 1987. April 1987 actually had two snow events..it had the huge one on the 28th and 29th that gave 2 feet to your area, but there was a smaller one earlier in the month that gave 3-6"

Will....go through the whole record back 118 years. Or perhaps determine what is decent for April?

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Will....go through the whole record back 118 years. Or perhaps determine what is decent for April?

Will doesn't need to go through the record book; he IS the record book.

This March was a lot better down here than March 2010 or 2008, had 3.75" snowfall, still way below average however. It's amazing that most of us average more snow in March than December, yet it seems we're so much more inclined to get early-season snowfalls than late-season events in recent years. We've had a lot of classic December like '02, '09 (esp SE CT), and '10 (Boxing Day and 12/19), but March has really been lacking. During the 1950s, March was actually the snowiest month down here.

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Will doesn't need to go through the record book; he IS the record book.

This March was a lot better down here than March 2010 or 2008, had 3.75" snowfall, still way below average however. It's amazing that most of us average more snow in March than December, yet it seems we're so much more inclined to get early-season snowfalls than late-season events in recent years. We've had a lot of classic December like '02, '09 (esp SE CT), and '10 (Boxing Day and 12/19), but March has really been lacking. During the 1950s, March was actually the snowiest month down here.

Dec 2008 and Dec 2007 are in Boston's top 5 snowiest Decembers...its been a good run.

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Kev Lemanowicz just tweeted: klemanowicz Kevin Lemanowicz So, we have this model we use in-house. It showed some snow for us earlier. This last run has NOTHING. Doesn't mean it won't happen, though.

Snowman.gif

Always have been on board for this storm, just needed the models to agree with me for some confidence. And we're almost there.

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Dec 2008 and Dec 2007 are in Boston's top 5 snowiest Decembers...its been a good run.

I was in Poughkeepsie for December '07 doing some education coursework at Vassar, we had a huge storm early that month, dumped like 8-10" in the area. I remember it being quite cold when I came home for Christmas vacation, including one night that flirted with single digits, unusual for mid-December in the NYC suburbs. We had a bunch of mixed events in Dobbs that probably buried you; I know you had an incredible snowpack in early January which was wiped out by the torch mid-month.

December '08 was great down here...I was home for XMAS, got nuked by the 12/19 event with 8" and 35-40dbz over Westchester; that was actually one of the heaviest snows I'd seen here until the Snowicane in terms of brief, intense banding. That was a SW flow event but had some great dynamics it seemed, I remember it tracked over the Mid Atlantic and there was a sharp gradient between advisory level snows in NYC and a warning event in the suburbs where I live. We had like 3" more on 12/21 before changing to sleet and freezing drizzle, but Middlebury recorded its second 10" storm in three days with that event. We managed to get a white Christmas in Westchester but just barely, as it was 50F and raining that day.

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Will doesn't need to go through the record book; he IS the record book.

This March was a lot better down here than March 2010 or 2008, had 3.75" snowfall, still way below average however. It's amazing that most of us average more snow in March than December, yet it seems we're so much more inclined to get early-season snowfalls than late-season events in recent years. We've had a lot of classic December like '02, '09 (esp SE CT), and '10 (Boxing Day and 12/19), but March has really been lacking. During the 1950s, March was actually the snowiest month down here.

Damn Will is money. Added up all Aprils with 4+ and the average March for Boston is 9.3.

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Will doesn't need to go through the record book; he IS the record book.

This March was a lot better down here than March 2010 or 2008, had 3.75" snowfall, still way below average however. It's amazing that most of us average more snow in March than December, yet it seems we're so much more inclined to get early-season snowfalls than late-season events in recent years. We've had a lot of classic December like '02, '09 (esp SE CT), and '10 (Boxing Day and 12/19), but March has really been lacking. During the 1950s, March was actually the snowiest month down here.

It's weird because it seems like when we were in our less snowy phase in the 70s, 80s and 90s, March was more snowier than December. This was also the case back in the 50s. The 60s were actually a time period when both December and March were snowy so it didn't fit the pattern.

The 00s have been awesome for early season snowfalls-- December specifically-- although we batted a total zero for November!

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I was in Poughkeepsie for December '07 doing some education coursework at Vassar, we had a huge storm early that month, dumped like 8-10" in the area. I remember it being quite cold when I came home for Christmas vacation, including one night that flirted with single digits, unusual for mid-December in the NYC suburbs. We had a bunch of mixed events in Dobbs that probably buried you; I know you had an incredible snowpack in early January which was wiped out by the torch mid-month.

December '08 was great down here...I was home for XMAS, got nuked by the 12/19 event with 8" and 35-40dbz over Westchester; that was actually one of the heaviest snows I'd seen here until the Snowicane in terms of brief, intense banding. That was a SW flow event but had some great dynamics it seemed, I remember it tracked over the Mid Atlantic and there was a sharp gradient between advisory level snows in NYC and a warning event in the suburbs where I live. We had like 3" more on 12/21 before changing to sleet and freezing drizzle, but Middlebury recorded its second 10" storm in three days with that event. We managed to get a white Christmas in Westchester but just barely, as it was 50F and raining that day.

My two favorite Decembers were 03 and 09. Well that was before this past December lol.

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It's pretty nuts that the GFS ensembles is 6 mb deeper with that lead shortwave at 48 hours compared to the Op run...998mb vs. 1004mb and 350 miles further ENE.

hmmm that is weird-- aren't the ensembles usually less deep than the OP because you're taking a mean?

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