weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 well i only have .6 inches for the whole month here so i am looking for a few more inches in the last inning... i do not know if the lower valley is going to have an epic snowfall late thurs and fri but I do think that even climo would say that it is about time for at least a few inches of paste..perhaps as much as a half foot or a bit more even... for feet of that down here....well the stars will all have to really align perfectly lol March for you will finish with 0.6. Snow will start soon after midnight 4/1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well you were wrong, a south trend did occur and most of us missed out on meaningful snow outside of the massachusetts alps. At least be intellectually honest you weren't talking about yby at the time, we were talking about an overall south trend in the storm which you outright mocked. Better luck this time! My mom, across the street from Narragansett Bay in Jamestown picked up 1-2" while I had an occasional flake at Wachusett and at home.... that storm was a bust for pretty much every met, hobbyist, and noose maker. Not only did it go south, but it was destroyed by convection, PV, and Ray's methane production Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man, Sam, you're going balls to the wall. I'm not even ready to get anywhere near excited yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Enjoy your 90/75 wx Possible thunder here next week? I've got a FL vacation booked for Aug 1st Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 March for you will finish with 0.6. Snow will start soon after midnight 4/1. The streak of sh*tty Marches continue. (although I did better this year than last) Do you know if the months that SNE did ok in April if we had decent Marches? And do you miss Bailey's Ice Cream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 My mom, across the street from Narragansett Bay in Jamestown picked up 1-2" while I had an occasional flake at Wachusett and at home.... that storm was a bust for pretty much every met, hobbyist, and noose maker. Not only did it go south, but it was destroyed by convection, PV, and Ray's methane production All in all the point was let's not rule out anything. Many were very certain a week ago the models/they were right and we had a stack of reasons to boot. And that was at 24/36 hours! We are always certain right up until we are not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The streak of sh*tty Marches continue. (although I did better this year than last) Do you know if the months that SNE did ok in April if we had decent Marches? And do you miss Bailey's Ice Cream? Almost every big April has had a decent March...the one big exception was 1987. April 1987 actually had two snow events..it had the huge one on the 28th and 29th that gave 2 feet to your area, but there was a smaller one earlier in the month that gave 3-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 All in all the point was let's not rule out anything. Many were very certain a week ago the models/they were right and we had a stack of reasons to boot. And that was at 24/36 hours! We are always certain right up until we are not. Sallient point. Last week sucked. This one feels different. Folks were looking at this on March 20th as having possibilities. Of course, Tip's Dil might be in the wings... Let's hope for good data ingestion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well you were wrong, a south trend did occur and most of us missed out on meaningful snow outside of the massachusetts alps. At least be intellectually honest you weren't talking about yby at the time, we were talking about an overall south trend in the storm which you outright mocked. Better luck this time! Scott, I'm kidding around. But, if you want to get into it, the reason I mocked (in a loving, nice way) you harping on the south trend was the fact that you called for OTS or SE tracks often this Winter and often that turned out to not be the case. I took note of this because, despite my ribbing, I feel you are knowledgeable and I read your posts closely. So imagine the unnecessary pain you inflicted on me when, erroneously, you called for the Boxing day storm to whiff NW areas. Fortunately, we were buried here but the emotional damage was done. Hopefully you won't be as reckless with your prognostications in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So if the NAM looks like the GFS and the Euro can we lock it in? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Almost every big April has had a decent March...the one big exception was 1987. April 1987 actually had two snow events..it had the huge one on the 28th and 29th that gave 2 feet to your area, but there was a smaller one earlier in the month that gave 3-6" April 2003 might be the exception, the South Coast got good accumulations I believe, but March was really a quiet month in the otherwise prolific 02-03 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 So if the NAM looks like the GFS and the Euro can we lock it in? lol That seems unlikely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The streak of sh*tty Marches continue. (although I did better this year than last) Do you know if the months that SNE did ok in April if we had decent Marches? And do you miss Bailey's Ice Cream? The big Aprils off hand are 1982, 1996, 1997, 2003. 1981-2 had a sub par Feb/March. 1995-6...well you know.. 1996-7....strong comeback March/April from putrid Feb. Other big ones... 1892-3: sub par March 1893-4: awful March, only a T at Boston...wasn't the current location back then but you get the drift. So I guess it's variable. I don't recall ever having Bailey's. I almost never eat ice cream...mostly frozen yogurt or soft serve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Almost every big April has had a decent March...the one big exception was 1987. April 1987 actually had two snow events..it had the huge one on the 28th and 29th that gave 2 feet to your area, but there was a smaller one earlier in the month that gave 3-6" What about March 1982, Will? I remember Jan and April being really snowy that year, but not the other months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 The big Aprils off hand are 1982, 1996, 1997, 2003. 1981-2 had a sub par Feb/March. 1995-6...well you know.. 1996-7....strong comeback March/April from putrid Feb. Other big ones... 1892-3: sub par March 1893-4: awful March, only a T at Boston...wasn't the current location back then but you get the drift. So I guess it's variable. I don't recall ever having Bailey's. I almost never eat ice cream...mostly frozen yogurt or soft serve. April 1875, April 1915 and April 1924 were also really good, but offhand I can't remember what the previous Marches were like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 April 2003 might be the exception, the South Coast got good accumulations I believe, but March was really a quiet month in the otherwise prolific 02-03 winter. Mar 6, 2003 gave the south shore and CT/RI a very good event, so it was not a quiet month there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Almost every big April has had a decent March...the one big exception was 1987. April 1987 actually had two snow events..it had the huge one on the 28th and 29th that gave 2 feet to your area, but there was a smaller one earlier in the month that gave 3-6" Will....go through the whole record back 118 years. Or perhaps determine what is decent for April? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Did not mean to hijack the thread... just will be weird if we get hammered on April 1st after a light March and for many a light Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will....go through the whole record back 118 years. Or perhaps determine what is decent for April? Will doesn't need to go through the record book; he IS the record book. This March was a lot better down here than March 2010 or 2008, had 3.75" snowfall, still way below average however. It's amazing that most of us average more snow in March than December, yet it seems we're so much more inclined to get early-season snowfalls than late-season events in recent years. We've had a lot of classic December like '02, '09 (esp SE CT), and '10 (Boxing Day and 12/19), but March has really been lacking. During the 1950s, March was actually the snowiest month down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will doesn't need to go through the record book; he IS the record book. This March was a lot better down here than March 2010 or 2008, had 3.75" snowfall, still way below average however. It's amazing that most of us average more snow in March than December, yet it seems we're so much more inclined to get early-season snowfalls than late-season events in recent years. We've had a lot of classic December like '02, '09 (esp SE CT), and '10 (Boxing Day and 12/19), but March has really been lacking. During the 1950s, March was actually the snowiest month down here. Dec 2008 and Dec 2007 are in Boston's top 5 snowiest Decembers...its been a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man, Sam, you're going balls to the wall. I'm not even ready to get anywhere near excited yet. Always have been on board for this storm, just needed the models to agree with me for some confidence. And we're almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Always have been on board for this storm, just needed the models to agree with me for some confidence. And we're almost there. You sniffed this out ... 10 days ago? It was a while ago for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Kev Lemanowicz just tweeted: klemanowicz Kevin Lemanowicz So, we have this model we use in-house. It showed some snow for us earlier. This last run has NOTHING. Doesn't mean it won't happen, though. Always have been on board for this storm, just needed the models to agree with me for some confidence. And we're almost there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Dec 2008 and Dec 2007 are in Boston's top 5 snowiest Decembers...its been a good run. I was in Poughkeepsie for December '07 doing some education coursework at Vassar, we had a huge storm early that month, dumped like 8-10" in the area. I remember it being quite cold when I came home for Christmas vacation, including one night that flirted with single digits, unusual for mid-December in the NYC suburbs. We had a bunch of mixed events in Dobbs that probably buried you; I know you had an incredible snowpack in early January which was wiped out by the torch mid-month. December '08 was great down here...I was home for XMAS, got nuked by the 12/19 event with 8" and 35-40dbz over Westchester; that was actually one of the heaviest snows I'd seen here until the Snowicane in terms of brief, intense banding. That was a SW flow event but had some great dynamics it seemed, I remember it tracked over the Mid Atlantic and there was a sharp gradient between advisory level snows in NYC and a warning event in the suburbs where I live. We had like 3" more on 12/21 before changing to sleet and freezing drizzle, but Middlebury recorded its second 10" storm in three days with that event. We managed to get a white Christmas in Westchester but just barely, as it was 50F and raining that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will doesn't need to go through the record book; he IS the record book. This March was a lot better down here than March 2010 or 2008, had 3.75" snowfall, still way below average however. It's amazing that most of us average more snow in March than December, yet it seems we're so much more inclined to get early-season snowfalls than late-season events in recent years. We've had a lot of classic December like '02, '09 (esp SE CT), and '10 (Boxing Day and 12/19), but March has really been lacking. During the 1950s, March was actually the snowiest month down here. Damn Will is money. Added up all Aprils with 4+ and the average March for Boston is 9.3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will doesn't need to go through the record book; he IS the record book. This March was a lot better down here than March 2010 or 2008, had 3.75" snowfall, still way below average however. It's amazing that most of us average more snow in March than December, yet it seems we're so much more inclined to get early-season snowfalls than late-season events in recent years. We've had a lot of classic December like '02, '09 (esp SE CT), and '10 (Boxing Day and 12/19), but March has really been lacking. During the 1950s, March was actually the snowiest month down here. It's weird because it seems like when we were in our less snowy phase in the 70s, 80s and 90s, March was more snowier than December. This was also the case back in the 50s. The 60s were actually a time period when both December and March were snowy so it didn't fit the pattern. The 00s have been awesome for early season snowfalls-- December specifically-- although we batted a total zero for November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I was in Poughkeepsie for December '07 doing some education coursework at Vassar, we had a huge storm early that month, dumped like 8-10" in the area. I remember it being quite cold when I came home for Christmas vacation, including one night that flirted with single digits, unusual for mid-December in the NYC suburbs. We had a bunch of mixed events in Dobbs that probably buried you; I know you had an incredible snowpack in early January which was wiped out by the torch mid-month. December '08 was great down here...I was home for XMAS, got nuked by the 12/19 event with 8" and 35-40dbz over Westchester; that was actually one of the heaviest snows I'd seen here until the Snowicane in terms of brief, intense banding. That was a SW flow event but had some great dynamics it seemed, I remember it tracked over the Mid Atlantic and there was a sharp gradient between advisory level snows in NYC and a warning event in the suburbs where I live. We had like 3" more on 12/21 before changing to sleet and freezing drizzle, but Middlebury recorded its second 10" storm in three days with that event. We managed to get a white Christmas in Westchester but just barely, as it was 50F and raining that day. My two favorite Decembers were 03 and 09. Well that was before this past December lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's pretty nuts that the GFS ensembles is 6 mb deeper with that lead shortwave at 48 hours compared to the Op run...998mb vs. 1004mb and 350 miles further ENE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It's pretty nuts that the GFS ensembles is 6 mb deeper with that lead shortwave at 48 hours compared to the Op run...998mb vs. 1004mb and 350 miles further ENE. hmmm that is weird-- aren't the ensembles usually less deep than the OP because you're taking a mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 hmmm that is weird-- aren't the ensembles usually less deep than the OP because you're taking a mean? usually...if you want get yourself nervous...that 18z GFS ensembles are actually fairly similar to the 18z NAM lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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