wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Models have changed a ton and improved significantly since 1997 so I'm not even sure the biases would be the same, either way. We've actually had two threats this year that trended southeast in the last 48 hours. The early February storm that hit NZucker hard and that system last week. It's not always a forgone conclusion that the models will trend northwest in the last 48 or 72 hours. thanks! my lay-impression has been that deeper low pressures tend to trend more NW / more easily overcome HP as we approach the event... i don't know the physics behind it. i think SE trends may have occurred more than NW trends this season, but I'd have to go systematically storm by storm to know for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just luv daylight savings time for model watching....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I didn't want to waste a post on this but it might be worth it for people to kill like 20-30 minutes before the models tonight... Matt Noyes has a pretty good video discussion on his website that was just recorded from 640-7 http://www.mattnoyes...ngland_weather/ Just scroll down to his tech discussion on Tuesday March 29. Also he has precip maps for Euro on there for us amateurs that dont pay for it. Also he says with no strong high its going to be very hard for towns to hold on to snow... talks about rain/snow line up to central NH maybe good watch and learn... Thanks, Not wasted on me - that was a good tutorial/explanation from Noyes about some of the dynamics that could be in play with this potential coastal storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It will be interesting to see what kind of latitudinal component, if at all, develops on that coastal front if this comes to pass. I would assume my job in Newburyport will probably do better than my place in Brookline but both are still on the CP. A guy at work told me he had 5" at his house in Amesbury but nothing at work. Where you in Brookline 4/1/97? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charlie Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 What do you guys think this storm is going to do for the Killington / Pico Area of Vermont ? Thank you for any info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Just luv daylight savings time for model watching....... I can't stand DST when there's a reason to watch the models. It really kills my schedule, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Where you in Brookline 4/1/97? Lol, I didn't even grow up here and I was 9. I actually grew up north of Philly. How did Brookline do in April 1997? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I can't stand DST when there's a reason to watch the models. It really kills my schedule, lol. I've been lobbying for DST to be adjusted to Late April to Late October, because a 6 month DST makes much more sense, especially since people use the time change to change their smoke detector and CO batteries. It makes no sense to have DST start in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I can't stand DST when there's a reason to watch the models. It really kills my schedule, lol. I know it kills mine, Your a night owl anyways........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 3/31-4/1 1997 Blizzard thanks... no doubt that 1025 High helped prevent a more inland track April 1, 1997 0Z UTC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I am totally perplexed, king op and ens look much more realistic to me, gfs ens and op are not even close to one another nor is the ggem. This looks like a huge snowbomb for the interior to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Hey I'm stealing someones internet here at my Aunt's development in Ocala. Pete it's looking better for GC I take it..... Nasty here ...muggy... makes me feel sleepy all the time. I'll be back northwest of DC by Friday afternoon so maybe catch the tail end there. Are you still on double secret probation? 5 posts a day? Geez powers that be, have a heart. LOL, Scott, sometimes the models actually do a good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I've been lobbying for DST to be adjusted to Late April to Late October, because a 6 month DST makes much more sense, especially since people use the time change to change their smoke detector and CO batteries. It makes no sense to have DST start in early March. Your right, Weekend of easter or the week before always worked fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z GFS clown map... for here...not quite as good for coast, but BOS still actually does decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Thanks, Not wasted on me - that was a good tutorial/explanation from Noyes about some of the dynamics that could be in play with this potential coastal storm. He does a great job in my opinion explaining this to about my level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z GFS clown map... for here...not quite as good for coast, but BOS still actually does decent. Makes sense Will as H5 closes off later compared to 12z, dramatic difference from the 12z clown map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Are you still on double secret probation? 5 posts a day? Geez powers that be, have a heart. LOL, Scott, sometimes the models actually do a good job. It was at about this point last threat when you ripped me about my comment suggesting a south trend. In fairness you were totally wrong, the storm mostly whiffed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Unfortunately they have been making it longer and longer. Maybe people in the South like it. I felt it was kinda surreal the other day when I was out in 28F, wind chills like single digits and daylight at 7 PM. Then dark at 6:30 AM when I had to go outside and do chores. I've been lobbying for DST to be adjusted to Late April to Late October, because a 6 month DST makes much more sense, especially since people use the time change to change their smoke detector and CO batteries. It makes no sense to have DST start in early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I am totally perplexed, king op and ens look much more realistic to me, gfs ens and op are not even close to one another nor is the ggem. This looks like a huge snowbomb for the interior to me. When in doubt, Side with the Euro, That looks reasonable right now, Until the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z GFS clown map... for here...not quite as good for coast, but BOS still actually does decent. Well, that would beat my Jan 12 amount Too bad it is the Insane Clown Product (ICP you Juggalos!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 18z GFS clown map... for here...not quite as good for coast, but BOS still actually does decent. AWT on those totals after that run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 It was at about this point last threat when you ripped me about my comment suggesting a south trend. In fairness you were totally wrong, the storm mostly whiffed. Pretty much everyone was wrong on that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 3/31-4/1 1997 Blizzard The text listing of snow is off. Much more snow in some places and BOS even got 25+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 wow, been a while since i've been on here guys (early Feb?) good to see everyone back, and i'm wrapping up my senior year at school. in terms of Friday's event, I don't think we should discount the NAM just yet based on its good performance with last Friday's event (until it choked 24 hours out)...still a pretty good hit for april standards anyway i'm in for the long haul tonight...EURO at 2am? (fook daylight savings) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Well, that would beat my Jan 12 amount Too bad it is the Insane Clown Product (ICP you Juggalos!) I have a feeling this one might be yours...I somehow managed to beat you in the 1/12 and 1/27 storms by several inches with the banding just S of you....but I'm starting to think that your area might be close to ground zero for this one. I'd like to see 00z models come in favorable though...still uneasy at 60 hours out right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 thanks! my lay-impression has been that deeper low pressures tend to trend more NW / more easily overcome HP as we approach the event... i don't know the physics behind it. i think SE trends may have occurred more than NW trends this season, but I'd have to go systematically storm by storm to know for sure. Norm MacDonald, the old school tv met used to say "The big storms hug the coast". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I've been lobbying for DST to be adjusted to Late April to Late October, because a 6 month DST makes much more sense, especially since people use the time change to change their smoke detector and CO batteries. It makes no sense to have DST start in early March. Good luck with that--I'd say we're stuck with this new 8 month schedule.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 He does a great job in my opinion explaining this to about my level. Even at that I was rewinding parts of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I have a feeling this one might be yours...I somehow managed to beat you in the 1/12 and 1/27 storms by several inches with the banding just S of you....but I'm starting to think that your area might be close to ground zero for this one. I'd like to see 00z models come in favorable though...still uneasy at 60 hours out right now. Lots of runs left. My wife is pissed, but what ya gonna do! Also, Wachusett closes at 4PM Sunday so to ski that day I have to buy a $10 pass. Scrooges! This will be a late night for many. Tips data should start coming in soon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I have a feeling this one might be yours...I somehow managed to beat you in the 1/12 and 1/27 storms by several inches with the banding just S of you....but I'm starting to think that your area might be close to ground zero for this one. I'd like to see 00z models come in favorable though...still uneasy at 60 hours out right now. Even with some relatively low elevations around here everything I've seen model wise today points to a good hit for all of Franklin Co. an N. Orh Co. Although I'm sure if I get 5"-10" Mike, Pete and Dave will all have double that. 1000'+ will do that. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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