Cold Miser Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:17 PM, ORH_wxman said: My gut says snow-rain-snow there in NE CT...the rain part is the tough variable...how long does it switch to rain? Maybe we get lucky and have it SE enough that no rain is in the picture for you. Thanks for your thoughts. That would be a nice end to a rather dull mid-winter that of which followed an epic, early winter onslaught. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:11 PM, ORH_wxman said: Looks like 6" is only confined to N Windham county and maybe Union on that map...your closer to 4". But agreed on the 2nd part, we're probably not trending. That will be the key. If we see the Euro and 18z runs tick east I'll feel better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:07 PM, ORH_wxman said: Toaster in the tub for Kevin on the GFS clown map Lol, the gradient in CT is ridiculous. I can go from 2-3" IMBY to like 7 or 8 up in Litchfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 4:42 PM, Boston-winter08 said: 12z GEM is close to 00z What was it at 00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 I head into work 10 pm tmrw nite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Every little tick east is huge. It's not necessarily for temps in the lower levels, but it gets very close to tipping over, aloft. We want to get that 850 0C line off to the east, not overhead. I could see a few ticks east as well, but we better keep the dynamics because that is also trying all it can to not allow the warmth overtake us. Lift is key. I think it also really pays to know local climo..in these marginal storms..we know who snows at 32.2 and who rains at 33.0...Not saying tt happens this time..but it goes a long long way. Seeing the Ukie and GFS trickle east was huge today..and lends credence to the idea that the trend east some of us have been expecting is indeed starting to happen as models sense the 3rd s/w kicker. I have a feeling many of us are going to end up happy with the final result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 4:44 PM, CoastalWx said: Those areas in mass that get the snow...it might not be one of those events that dry out the snow in the middle of the storm. Looks like a blueberry snowcone for some with some power fails. Out this way, too, Scott? I was kinda hoping for a somewhat standard ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 WOW what a dream scenario...........everyone gets snow except for me!!! :thumbsup: Amen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 4:47 PM, nzucker said: Wow, that's just a sick storm at 180 as Tip mentioned. 946mb Aleutian low, looks like a classic -EPO/+PNA type block. Folks often question/dismiss the GFS at 42 hours out. Should 180 merit a mention? Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:19 PM, amarshall said: I've written this off in BOS. Hopefully I can take the cover off the boat on Sunday. We need about a 50 mile shift or a change in the intensity but congrats on announcing that you've given up. Agree that we are on the edge though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:24 PM, moneypitmike said: Out this way, too, Scott? I was kinda hoping for a somewhat standard ratio. I think it would be drier out there, but you look like you're in great shape man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 4:55 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Will and Scott are probably going to make fun of me for commenting on an event over D7 like this .... buuuuut, if those parametrics come together that way, you would be all snow - period, bank it. Done deal, with no exception. That's Meteorological correction talking. By the way folks, this current storm kind of has that appeal for me where the core of the precipitaiton shield is blue at Intellicast's p-type, but the edges... say 20-50 miles in is cold green rain. Couldn't you see that as a possible outcome? And ... whom ever is in that core would be getting some big huge hammer aggregates with occasional thunder! re: the D7 192hr GFS bible storm, I'm getting nervous about dryslot issues here in Boston metro... (joke) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:26 PM, mattb65 said: We need about a 50 mile shift or a change in the intensity but congrats on announcing that you've given up. Agree that we are on the edge though. We are living on the edge, but I wouldn't be shocked if we had a 5" paste bomb..esp just inland, based on the GFS soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 How far inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:35 PM, 8611Blizz said: How far inland? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Even the old NOGAPS is amped up, man the mountains are going to get smoked, my 14 for Pete might be on the light side :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Here's the Canadian on the better maps...really close call for BOS suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Wow, the GGEM is an absolute nail-biter for NYC suburbs as well. Both major cities are basically bisected by the 0C line...interesting to see it's that cold with the low well tucked into CT, showing the dynamics here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:31 PM, CoastalWx said: I think it would be drier out there, but you look like you're in great shape man. Thanks. Meanwhile, it's warn out there--46.7/21. Was out cutting wood for lunch, felt like spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Euro is starting.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 who's heading to Okemo on Friday besides me? $10 and 3 non-perishables! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 BOX decides to give Ray an electrical bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jconsor Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 One of the key differences on the GGEM vs. the 00z run is that the 700 mb and 850 mb lows trended about 50 miles east. On 3/30/2011 at 5:41 PM, nzucker said: Wow, the GGEM is an absolute nail-biter for NYC suburbs as well. Both major cities are basically bisected by the 0C line...interesting to see it's that cold with the low well tucked into CT, showing the dynamics here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Will why is the GGEm bad for CT? That looks like an isothermal interior snowbomb.. What am i missing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Man the tailpipe factor for my area is at an all-time high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 Makes me feel good that the EURO is significantly colder than the 12z GFS @ the surface, and the GFS still gave me 5"....12z EC pending ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:43 PM, jconsor said: One of the key differences on the GGEM vs. the 00z run is that the 700 mb and 850 mb lows trended about 50 miles east. It looks like the GEM wants to try to pass H7 a bit south of NYC compared to the GFS being farther north in the metro. That definitely implies a colder storm with the NW suburbs being on the cold side of the mid-level gradient. GEM also looks like it just thinks the GFS is too warm all around with the surface low being in a pretty similar spot. Hardcore nailbiter for NYC and BOS burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:41 PM, moneypitmike said: Thanks. Meanwhile, it's warn out there--46.7/21. Was out stroking wood for lunch, put a spring in my step. It's the God's Country way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: BOX decides to give Ray an electrical bath. Man, he thought the 3.5 inches I gave him was bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30, 2011 Share Posted March 30, 2011 On 3/30/2011 at 5:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: BOX decides to give Ray an electrical bath. Same map from yesterday; looks like 12z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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