eyewall Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Dr. Tim Coleman's new post on ABC 33/40's weather blog: No one ever said meteorology is easy. A squall line that was pushing rapidly SE 2 hours ago had a low pressure area develop along it, allowing the northern part of the line to move on ahead, but the southern part to slow down. Pressures are falling very rapidly now in central Alabama, indicating that low pressure area is headed our way. The low causes winds at the surface to back around to the SE, increasing helicity for storm rotation. Interestingly, the air got so warm today (low 80s) that we mixed a little dry air down from aloft, and dewpoints have dropped slightly since 3 pm, to near 60. However, with the sun going down, moisture from the ground, and south winds, dewpoints will rise again, into the lower 60s by 7 pm. With the low pressure area and still unstable air, any storms in the squall line may produce tornadoes. This is still a dangerous storm situation, and I think the worst of it may be coming in the next 3 hours. Sent from my Droid using Tapatalk That developing low is something to watch for sure. It certainly presents an increased TOR risk and perhaps a fly in the ointment for the overnight hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 The RUC is definitely behind the current radar trends and does not maintain the secondary low unless that is just the resolution of the map I am seeing as it appears to be there somewhat on the simulated reflectivity. The low would of course slow things up a bit I think. Anyway it is something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Looks like we have to give the Euro its props for recognizing that secondary surface low development that it had. I thought something was up when it was the only model among the GFS, NAM, and itself that had it on there for today. Wouldn't surprise me if LEWP tornadoes developed for some areas of the Southeast associated with that low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 SPC is now on to the mesolow and issued an MD on an enhanced TOR threat with it. ...INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES /POSSIBLY STRONG/ THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS CNTRL/SRN AL AND SERN MS.... 23Z MESOANALYSIS PLACES A MESOLOW OVER ECNTRL MS WITH PERSISTENT PRESSURE FALL AXIS NEWD INTO CNTRL/NERN AL. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF PRE-QLCS TSTMS HAVE ERUPTED AHEAD OF THE MESOLOW IN SERN MS...PRESUMABLY GIVEN ACCELERATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT. THESE MORE DISCRETE CELLS SHOULD PERSIST/ADVANCE ENE INTO CNTRL/SRN AL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TORNADOES IN AN 80 MILE CORRIDOR CENTERED 30SSE OF PINE BELT MS-SELMA AL-25W ANNISTON AL. BMX VWP SUGGESTS THE 0-1KM FLOW HAS BACKED AND ACCELERATED WITH 0-1KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 350 M2/S2 NOW. CONCERN IS THAT AS THE DISCRETE CELLS MOVE INTO THAT AREA AND/OR INTERACT WITH THE QLCS...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE. OTHERWISE...BOWS/LEWPS WITHIN THE LINE WILL POSE AN ADDED DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..RACY.. 04/04/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Birmingham about to get hit hard. Marker for 1.25-1.75" hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Anyone think this mesolow could enhance the overnight severe threat into the carolinas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Atlanta will be next in line to take the beating within the next couple of hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 From SPC at 1z: FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...THE SQUALL-LINE HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE LINE MAY ALSO HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND REGENERATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PA...WV AND VA. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE LIKELY BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE. NC is right on the line now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 From SPC at 1z: FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS...THE SQUALL-LINE HAS WEAKENED SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THIS IS PRIMARILY DUE TO THE WEAK INSTABILITY IN PLACE. THE LINE MAY ALSO HAVE BEEN IMPACTED BY THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND REGENERATION DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN CREST. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE REMOVED THE SLIGHT RISK ACROSS PA...WV AND VA. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL STILL BE LIKELY BUT THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUB-SEVERE. NC is right on the line now. NC isn't really on the line as my area, the southern piedmont looks fine in terms of severe weather. Towards the VA border, yes they are more on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 NC isn't really on the line as my area, the southern piedmont looks fine in terms of severe weather. Towards the VA border, yes they are more on the line. Yeah I am in the more favored area as well but it will be close. Basically the convection in GA/AL will have to sneak under the apps and into our part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raysum Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Looks like the Western Carolina's are going to get a watch.... Edit...Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0355 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0832 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN NC AND UPSTATE SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 050132Z - 050230Z WW WILL BE NEEDED SOON...GREATER THAN 90 PERCENT CHANCE OF ISSUANCE FOR PARTS OF WRN NC AND UPSTATE SC. MAIN THREATS...DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. SQUALL LINE OVER NCNTRL GA IS EXTRAPOLATED TO THE GA/NC/SC BORDER REGION 0245-03Z. BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM WAS MOISTENING RAPIDLY AND REMAINING WARM/BUOYANT AND WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN CREST INTO WRN NC/SC THROUGH LATE EVENING. ..RACY.. 04/05/2011 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...RNK...GSP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 SPC just issued a watch. Dew points have really come up in the last couple of hours. Up to 57 here now. If we can get up to near 60 we should be able to sustain the squall line as it move east tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I'm watching one line of storms in particular crossing extreme northern GA at the moment near Blairsville. If that manages to stay intact, I believe a good chunk of Upstate SC and Southern NC will be getting in on the action later on. Still can't rule out an isolated tornado or two to affect someone in these areas though. More details regarding the Severe Thunderstorm Watch: The Nws Storm Prediction Center Has Issued A Severe Thunderstorm Watch For Portions Of Northeast Georgia Western North Carolina Western South Carolina Effective This Monday Night And Tuesday Morning From 945 PM Until 300 AM EDT. Hail To 1 Inch In Diameter... Thunderstorm Wind Gusts To 70 Mph... And Dangerous Lightning Are Possible In These Areas. Winds being progged to gust up to that speed have me worried the most since I've recently had a lot of the tree branches fall form the previous windy event. Combining that with damaging hail just makes matters worse... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 1.42 inches of rain here and it is still coming down pretty hard. There was some damage in the area from the storms, but not as widespread as the late Feb. system. Weirdly, radar is indicating 2.5 inches+ right over me, but I haven't seen anywhere near that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Gametime here! Severe Thunderstorm Warning in effect until 10:45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0905 PM CDT MON APR 04 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SC MIDLANDS SWWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN GA AND THE CNTRL FL PNHDL CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 050205Z - 050300Z A NEW TORNADO WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE ABOVE HIGHLIGHTED REGIONS BY 03Z. SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD INTO NCNTRL GA AND ERN/SRN AL AT MID-EVENING. RADAR SUGGESTS AN INFLECTION POINT...LIKELY A MESOLOW...CONTINUED TO MIGRATE ENE INTO ECNTRL AL ALONG CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST PRESSURE FALLS. ENHANCED SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDUCED BY THIS FEATURE WAS TRANSPORTING MID-UPPER 60S DEW POINTS INTO CNTRL GA AND ECNTRL AL AHEAD OF THE LINE AND ENHANCING THE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING BUOYANT AND STRENGTH OF THE APPROACHING LARGE-SCALE TROUGH...EXPECT THAT A STRONG SQUALL LINE WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE LINE WILL DISCRETELY PROPAGATE AS NEW CELLS FORM IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE COLD POOL. AS CELLS MERGE...BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF THE LINE WILL OCCUR...INCREASING RISKS FOR MICROBURSTS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS STRONG ENOUGH FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS TO ALSO THRIVE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS CNTRL/SWRN GA...SERN AL AND THE FL PNHDL. STORMS SHOULD BE ALIGNED ALONG ERN EDGE OF TORNADO WATCHES 95/96 BETWEEN 04-05Z. ..RACY.. 04/05/2011 ATTN...WFO...CAE...FFC...TAE...BMX... LAT...LON 30508630 33258424 33798357 33878266 33788182 33508180 32878218 31778308 29688475 30508630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Line in moving thru MBY....max gust is 40mph so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Czar Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Its really coming down here, hope the power stays on, gotta catch the 2nd half of the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 From SPC:...DAMAGiNG WINDS LIKELY...POSSIBLE TORNADOES IN ATLANTA METRO AREA 0145-0300Z... Pretty strong wording from SPC, especially since we haven't had a tornado warning out of the northern half of this line all night. Everyone in ATL better batten down the hatches in the next hour, it's gonna get real bumpy. This looks like one of the strongest squall lines we've had in awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Just to my south The midlands didn't make the cut...lol URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 98 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1030 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ALABAMA CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 1030 PM UNTIL 500 AM EDT. TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF AUGUSTA GEORGIA TO 55 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 95...WW 96...WW 97... DISCUSSION...SQUALL LINE WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD ACROSS AL. THESE STORMS WILL AFFECT WATCH AREA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF A FEW TORNADOES. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040. ...HART Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Thunder and lightning is not all that bad up here. Max gust was 40mph and now it's just heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Surely that's a mis-print on the storm movement, lol. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1042 PM EDT MON APR 4 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BUNCOMBE COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... HAYWOOD COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... MADISON COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... NORTHEASTERN SWAIN COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA... * UNTIL 1145 PM EDT * AT 1039 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF WATERVILLE TO 26 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SUNBURST...OR ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 17 MILES SOUTH OF NEWPORT TO 5 MILES EAST OF FRANKLIN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 115 MPH. * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO MAGGIE VALLEY...COVE CREEK...WAYNESVILLE...LAKE JUNALUSKA... CLYDE...SPRING CREEK...LUCK...HOT SPRINGS...CANTON...ALLENSTAND... CRUSO...WALNUT...CANTO...WHITEROCK...MARSHALL...LEICESTER... CANDLER...BENT CREEK...AVERY CREEK...I-26 AT I-40...MARS HILL... WOODFIN...FAUST...WEAVERVILLE...SKYLAND...UNC ASHEVILLE...BILTMORE FOREST...DOWNTOWN ASHEVILLE...ASHEVILLE MALL...BARNARDSVILLE... FAIRVIEW...SWANNANOA...BLACK MOUNTAIN AND MONTREAT PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ALERT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. TO REPORT DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...OR FLOODING...THROUGH OUR AUTOMATED REPORTING SYSTEM...CALL OUR TOLL FREE NUMBER... 1 8 7 7...6 3 3...6 7 7 2. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Line coming through shortly for Cobb County. I'm ready for some good winds, maybe I can get a nasty gust around 60+ Edit : Pretty sure the gust front just came through..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Had some gusts about 30-35. Waiting on more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 I don't have a way to measure wind other than judging it. I just had gust from the outflow at least 40 could have been near 50. Looks like that very well may be the worst I get. The radar returns are not too impressive over my area despite the warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Huge crack of thunder! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Wow! I am really impressed this thing seems to be really holding together better than most lines when they hit the mnts. The thunder is growing louder & louder. Lightning has the sky lit up. Not to bad on the wind yet. Looks like about 15 min. it's game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Had a quick 10-second burst of pea sized hail. Nothing all that impressive as far as wind goes. Maybe a few gusts to 35 mph? Impressive lightning as I type. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Things are nuts in Macon and Jackson Counties right now. Several VFDs are dealing with downed trees, downed power lines and a couple of houses are reported on fire from lightning strikes. I saw lightning hit a neighbors house and take out his transformer. I had everything unplugged when the storm went through. I'll have to check the video to see if I caught any strikes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted April 5, 2011 Share Posted April 5, 2011 Kinda worried that no reports have come out from areas just west of Asheville...that line looks nasty on radar. They just issued a warning for my area, storms moving 65 mph. Level 3 radar shows that nasty wind right over Downtown Asheville as we speak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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