WNCwx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 It looks like the people living in Tennessee and far western North Carolina still could get a piece of this, Morristown issued a special weather statement early this morning... I'll be in town (Franklin) covering a Town Board meeting, so if this storm will oblige, I might get lucky around 9pm or so tomorrow night and get to set up a camera and see what happens. Source for statement http://is.gd/zv00VG SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN Locations... CHEROKEE-CLAY-SCOTT TN-CAMPBELL-CLAIBORNE-HANCOCK-HAWKINS-SULLIVAN-JOHNSON-MORGAN-ANDERSON-UNION-GRAINGER-HAMBLEN-NORTHWEST COCKE-COCKE SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTHWEST GREENE-SOUTHEAST GREENE-WASHINGTON TN-UNICOI-NORTHWEST CARTER-SOUTHEAST CARTER-ROANE-LOUDON-KNOX-JEFFERSON-NW BLOUNT-BLOUNT SMOKY MOUNTAINS-NORTH SEVIER-SEVIER SMOKY MOUNTAINS-SEQUATCHIE-BLEDSOE-RHEA-MEIGS-MCMINN-NORTHWEST MONROE-SOUTHEAST MONROE-MARION-HAMILTON-BRADLEY-WEST POLK-EAST POLK-LEE-WISE-SCOTT-RUSSELL-WASHINGTON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MURPHY...HAYESVILLE...ONEIDA...LA FOLLETTE...TAZEWELL...SNEEDVILLE...ROGERSVILLE...KINGSPORT...BRISTOL...MOUNTAIN CITY...WARTBURG...CLINTON...OAK RIDGE...MAYNARDVILLE...RUTLEDGE...MORRISTOWN...NEWPORT...COSBY...GREENEVILLE...CEDAR CREEK...JOHNSON CITY...ERWIN...ELIZABETHTON...ROAN MOUNTAIN...KINGSTON...LENOIR CITY...KNOXVILLE...DANDRIDGE...MARYVILLE...CADES COVE...SEVIERVILLE...GATLINBURG...DUNLAP...PIKEVILLE...DAYTON...DECATUR...ATHENS...MADISONVILLE...COKER CREEK...JASPER...CHATTANOOGA...CLEVELAND...BENTON...DUCKTOWN...JONESVILLE...WISE...NORTON...GATE CITY...LEBANON...ABINGDON Information... 423 AM EDT SUN APR 3 2011 /323 AM CDT SUN APR 3 2011/...AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTOMONDAY NIGHT...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYSMONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A LARGE OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMSOVER TENNESSEE...KENTUCKY AND THE NORTHERN GULF COAST STATES MONDAYAFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST INTO PLATEAUCOUNTIES BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THE REST OF EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA...AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF NORTH CAROLINAMONDAY NIGHT.DUE TO THE VERY STRONG WINDS AND COLD AIR ALOFT...DAMAGING STRAIGHTLINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN...MAINLY ACROSS THEPLATEAU AND SOUTHERN HALF OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. SOME OF THETHUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF TWOINCHES...WHICH MAY PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.THE EXACT TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM SYSTEM REMAIN UNCERTAIN.RESIDENTS ACROSS THE AREA NEED TO KEEP ABREAST OF THE POTENTIALSEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FOR LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Not too much change with the 12Z models- still looks like primarily a squall line, will probably move through GA at about midnight. The GFS forecast soundings around the MS/AL area at about 21Z are impressive with high 0-1KM SRH values, there could be a few tornadoes before the massive squall line sets in- but even with that there could be some pretty widespread wind damage reports and a few more tornadoes of the QLCS variety given the strong mid-upper dynamics. Timing does look bad for the Carolinas, but the severe weather could last all the way into the overnight and early morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNCwx Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 The GSP AFD does mention QLCS (I had to google it to find out what it meant) http://wdtb.noaa.gov/courses/awoc/documentation/screen/Supplemental_Lessons/ICSvr3-III-G_QLCStornadoes.pdf Here is GSP says... AS FOR SEVERE WEATHER...THE SLOWER TIMING IS A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE...BUT SHEARSHOULD BE OUTSTANDING. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTOR LOOKS TO BENEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SO A LINEAR MODE IS EXPECTED. IN THESESITUATIONS WE USUALLY MANAGE TO EKE OUT SOME MARGINAL BUOYANCY AHEADOF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. THAT WILL PROVIDE US WITH A HIGH SHEAR LOWCAPE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF A QUASI LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WHICHOFTEN SPELLS SOME DIFFICULTY. OF NOTE IS THE RECENT DAY2 CONVECTIVEOUTLOOK WHICH FEATURES A SLIGHT RISK NUDGED EAST INTO THE WRN PARTOF THE FCST AREA. HAVE A FEELING THAT A QLCS WILL FORM TO OUR WESTAND CROSS THE REGION IN THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SO THEEASTERN ZONES SHOULD NOT BE WRITTEN OFF YET. OT: The link above led me to the Advanced Warning Operations Course, so I'll be working my way through that over the course of the next few months. Of course, I realize that if I want to see a real storm, I'll have to leave the mountains of western North Carolina. Is there any plan to tutor those of us who are rank amateurs at this stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Not too much change with the 12Z models- still looks like primarily a squall line, will probably move through GA at about midnight. The GFS forecast soundings around the MS/AL area at about 21Z are impressive with high 0-1KM SRH values, there could be a few tornadoes before the massive squall line sets in- but even with that there could be some pretty widespread wind damage reports and a few more tornadoes of the QLCS variety given the strong mid-upper dynamics. Timing does look bad for the Carolinas, but the severe weather could last all the way into the overnight and early morning. When you say soundings are impressive in MS/AL are you talking mainly West or Northwest AL or are you also talking about areas along the GA border in East AL ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 When you say soundings are impressive in MS/AL are you talking mainly West or Northwest AL or are you also talking about areas along the GA border in East AL ? At 21Z the best helicities are from NC AL to WC AL to southern/central MS. eastern AL and western GA have pretty good values but after dark and the whole thing weakens overnight as it moves east, but think there is a chance of some overnight severe in GA and the western Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 I've been up in Washington DC all week, so I haven't had any time to check this out. Just got back yesterday! Sounds like its gonna be a squall line instead of supercells like last weekend. Should be fun tracking it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 So do you guys think we see a moderate risk somewhere in MS/AL/GA tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 So do you guys think we see a moderate risk somewhere in MS/AL/GA tomorrow? Based on the info we have right now, I'd say no. If we can get that secondary low pressure to form further south as the EURO has shown, that could change things in that direction, but if it stays a QLCS type event, probably not. Obviously things can change in a hurry tomorrow once everything gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Based off of what I have seen from the modeling, there is agreement in regard to how the cold front will progress through the SE but still, timing remains to be an issue if you're looking for what the earlier solutions had, especially by the Euro's data which is showing the slowest progression than that of the GFS and the NAM. It's also strange how it seems to be the only one amongst the 3 of the models that develops a surface low which could aid in more supercell development but with short longevity for the duration of the event. It still looks to be a late night to morning kind of time period for when the storms move in for places further east such as the Carolinas and parts of eastern GA and TN. We still manage to keep a good chance for severe weather nonetheless but the tornado risk, as a few others have said, is not as high as previously but still that remains a threat with the low CAPE/high shear setup that's expected to evolve along with the QLCS development. I'd look for the wind damage to be the primary threat associated with any of the severe cells that erupt with a few reaching the super status in the more favorable environments. The 0-6km shear still looks to be quite strong and would support the QLCS idea. Best chance for the more powerful storms will be further west into places like MS, western and central TN, and perhaps parts of AL since the front will push through during the heating of the day while still experiencing a strong moist inflow from the Gulf but capping could be an issue as a few models are indicating with the CIN values. Could get some storms to fire off out ahead of the main line before the frontal passage and those that do also stand the chance to gain a bit of an attitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 like many rain events, this looks much bigger from the Apps and west of the Apps, with much less in the Carolinas. Nam and GFS look similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Base reflectivity south of Kansas City right now looks crazy! I know none of these are producing tornadoes, but at a glance, about every one of those cells shows a reflectivity 'hook' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Base reflectivity south of Kansas City right now looks crazy! I know none of these are producing tornadoes, but at a glance, about every one of those cells shows a reflectivity 'hook' Already you can see the power of that cold front as it continues to materialize and produce more storms through the Central Plains region. Lots of severe thunderstorm watches and warnings lined up along one another, and tornado watches for parts of IL, IA, and MO. I'd expect the front to ramp up some more throughout Monday and spin up a few tornadoes out that way. MS seems to be on the rise of being one of the areas to receive a harder punch from the front the more I look at how things are evolving over there. Just my thinking here but it's definitely possible. Thought I post this right quick. It's from the SREF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx2688 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 1st time posting here. How are things looking presently for western Ga? I am reading differing thoughts on tomorrow nights weather event. It got up to 82 today at my house, and I suspect we will get up to atleast 82 this afternoon if not warmer. I use weather underground, and I am thinking the thing is completely wrong with the dew points it is putting out for my area. Stating high of 81 with a dew point of 35? No way that can be right for Monday???? If there is a better site for me to look at my local weather other than Atlanta news sites, please let me know. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gastonwxman Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 1st time posting here. How are things looking presently for western Ga? I am reading differing thoughts on tomorrow nights weather event. It got up to 82 today at my house, and I suspect we will get up to at least 82 this afternoon if not warmer. I use weather underground, and I am thinking the thing is completely wrong with the dew points it is putting out for my area. Stating high of 81 with a dew point of 35? No way that can be right for Monday???? If there is a better site for me to look at my local weather other than Atlanta news sites, please let me know. Thanks. Welcome to the forum GaWx2688. Glad to have another SE member onboard here. Actually from what I see on Wunderground, it states your DP gets at least into the mid 50s throughout the afternoon between 12pm-6pm, which is reasonable but could also see near 60° readings. Temp is about right, though it could get into the mid 80s. You can also get readings for your area from intellicast.com or by this link here (linked to Bremen, GA): http://forecast.weat...d2=-85.1523&e=0 For future reference, visit this link here for posting etiquette. We like to keep things in order here for everyone's comfort. This especially applies to new folks during the winter season. Happy posting! http://www.americanw...ting-etiquette/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Well I see this and I think hey thats better than "see text" then I read it and meh timing is terrible for the most part, that last little bit did get my attention if there was only some way to get some good sun in the morning..... ...SERN GA/ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA... LIMITED SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TUESDAY MORNING... GIVEN PROXIMITY TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND MODEST LAPSE RATES /6.5-7 C PER KM/ SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY. DESPITE THIS NEGATIVE FACTOR...STRONG HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE TRACK OF A BASAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD MAINTAIN AN ONGOING ORGANIZED LINE OF STORMS SPREADING EWD. THE STRENGTH OF THE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL /SSWLY/ WIND FIELDS /50-60 KT AT 850 MB AND 60-70 KT AT 700 MB/ AND STRONG EFFECTIVE LOW LEVEL SRH /300-400 M2 PER S2/ SUGGESTS A DAMAGING WIND AND TORNADO THREAT THROUGH THE MORNING ACROSS THIS REGION. TIMING/SPEED OF THE COLD FRONT AND ATTENDANT SQUALL LINE IN THE MODELS SUGGESTS THE THREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE SERN GA/ERN SC BY LATE MORNING...WHILE CONTINUING TO AFFECT ERN NC/SERN VA THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 late tonight and overnight is going to get interesting east of the mountains. The NAM and GFS both have strong wind fields from the surface and up, and really strong just off the surface at 975 to 950mb , so any thunderstorm lines can easily bring these winds to the surface. Its already a windy morning just after sunrise, and the forecast is for 40mph gusts today, the models maintain and increase the speeds overnight, pretty much throughout the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 At least it's coming in a little later in the evening here, a little less instability but still some pretty good shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 late tonight and overnight is going to get interesting east of the mountains. The NAM and GFS both have strong wind fields from the surface and up, and really strong just off the surface at 975 to 950mb , so any thunderstorm lines can easily bring these winds to the surface. Its already a windy morning just after sunrise, and the forecast is for 40mph gusts today, the models maintain and increase the speeds overnight, pretty much throughout the Carolinas. It looks interesting for sure and RAH is pointing to the the idea of a QLCS surviving overnight. Too bad the timing is terrible but perhaps i can shoot some lightning if these cells produce any. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 It looks interesting for sure and RAH is pointing to the the idea of a QLCS surviving overnight. Too bad the timing is terrible but perhaps i can shoot some lightning if these cells produce any. What a squall line blasting through in the wee hrs in NC how surprising.......... All kidding aside it does seem that eastern NC might actually get into the game AFTER sunup tommorrow which is a small step in the right direction. I would much rather have them hit at 9 am vs 4 am lol. Especially since technically I am east of RAH "east" CWA. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE 2A-9A IN THE WRN CWA AND 5A-1P IN THE ERN CWA. SEVERE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAIN POSSIBLE... ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE FROM FOCUSED DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 sort of funny to think about storms and 100% chance when its so nice out and not a cloud in the sky lol. i would love to see some good storms, but as long as we can keep getting rain as we move through spring and summer i will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Just walked through our botanical gardens nearby, and I must say it is gorgeous out there. Really starting to heat up! Currently 77oF with a dewpoint of 58oF. It's also pretty windy with some gusts over 25 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kennedy Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Wonder when the watches/warnings are going to start ? It is extremely warm here today kind of balmy even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryan1234 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Wow, these storms are moving along fast! 80mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oconeexman Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Tupelo Miss about to get thrashed upon ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 sort of funny to think about storms and 100% chance when its so nice out and not a cloud in the sky lol. i would love to see some good storms, but as long as we can keep getting rain as we move through spring and summer i will be happy Was thinking the same thing a little while ago. It's nice and warm but it just doesn't feel like storms are on the way. A little bit dissappointed and confused with the wind today. Not getting many significant gusts here, despite the fact that athens, atlanta, and everywhere else are showing gusts into the 25 to 35 range. Atlanta had a gust to 38 mph at noon. Not sure why in the world I'm not seeing these winds. Not a big fan of squall lines since most of the time they are only ho hum by the time they get here or I go through the only hole in the entire line. Starting to see some isolated convection forming ahead of the line and am hoping that happens here because chances are atlanta will weaken that line. Indeed, this could be a good example of a line of storms weakening after they pass atlanta. Normally it's either almost immediate or it happens by the time it hits athens. However, maybe the speed of this line will not allow much weakening by the time it gets here. I hope anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Not a big fan of squall lines since most of the time they are only ho hum by the time they get here or I go through the only hole in the entire line. Starting to see some isolated convection forming ahead of the line and am hoping that happens here because chances are atlanta will weaken that line. I will say at least we don't have an annoying 49 degree wedge nosing down waiting to kill any convection. That along with some possible isolated pre frontal development later on early this evening is keeping me interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
audioguy3107 Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Some of the higher lifted index values are just starting to push into western Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 If ATL over to AHN can hold onto the daytime heating it might be fireworks in Georgia. If that Low ever develops in the next 3-6 hours it will be on like donkey kong. For some reason I just think this will be mostly straight line winds in my area due to the sun being down by the time the line arives. While the storms are moving at 60-80MPH they are moving in a NEwardly fashion and the march is not so impressive to the East. (meaning ahead of schedule) Of note though, 81.8° IMBY. Whoa Nelly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HWY316wx Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Huntsville is up on the wheel with their foot on the floor board. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL 122 PM CDT MON APR 4 2011 ...SEVERE WEATHER THREAT RAPIDLY INCREASING ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... CONVECTIVE INITIATION WELL UNDERWAY NOW ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA AS LOW LVL CAP HAS BROKEN AND MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG INTERACT WITH INCREASING BULK SHEAR. A TORNADO WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE NORTH ALABAMA/SRN MIDDLE TENNESSEE UNTIL 6 PM CDT. LEADING EDGE OF MAIN SQUALL LINE THAT HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...IS NOW RACING ACROSS NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI /PRENTISS AND ALCORN COUNTIES/ AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE QUICKLY E/NE...MOVING INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF LAUDERDALE/COLBERT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES BETWEEN 145 AND 215 PM CDT. THERE HAVE BEEN LOCATIONS OF LOW LVL ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LINE...THUS IN ADDITION TO DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS...GRADIENT WIND IS REALLY PICKING UP WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40-45 MPH SEEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. NADLER.83 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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