April 4-6 Severe Weather

[buckeyefan1]

It's rather disturbing of how this event is progged to occur around the time of the April 3-4 1974 Super Outbreak, though in this case I don't foresee a redux of that event happening with this setup but rather it will be severity of the storms themselves. I wasn't around during the time of that tornadic outbreak but I've heard that the damage was unimaginable across the OV and the SE. This year will mark the 37th Anniversary of that event.

For those of you not familiar with it, here's a link explaining why it occurred: http://www.april3197.../The_storm.html

I remember that day like it was yesterday. It's what started my addiction for weather I lived in the Arrowhead subdivision near the school. It wasn't long after school was out, and I was riding my bike when my Mom and Aunt called us inside. Channel 7, with the NEW doppler radar, was on tv and he was saying to take cover. The sun was shining as we entered the closet. What seemed like forever in that closet while the sun was still shining, my Mom and Aunt decided to take a look outside...and I followed...lol. When they opened the door and took a step outside, looking up just above the big oak tree in the front yard, was the blackest cloud I have ever seen and I remember it was sooo quiet all of a sudden. We ran back to the closet as the noise then started to grow louder. Our house stood, while damaged, but the houses all around us didn't stand a chance. It was a very long walk from our home to the other side of Xenia, near the IGA, where my Grandparents lived. Destruction was everywhere, it looked like something out of a war movie, only the sights, smells, and sounds were all to real. The only thing I have seen since then that matched the damage was Hugo, when we drove down to Manning the day after he made landfall. It was the dryer in the tree that did it... I still have the old 8mm movies my Dad took in the days after, a long time ago I had them converted to VHS, now I guess it's time to put them on a disk. One thing that I learned that day is that people are amazing when a disaster like this happens, and there will always be a special place in alot of hearts for the first responders

EDIT: Here is a good link with some stories from those that were in Arrowhead that day

http://www.xeniatornado.com/

[ATL_Militarypolice]

The 0Z GFS did what BMX was concerned about yesterday in their afternoon discussion.

ONE MORE CONSIDERATION THAT COULD BE A

GAME-CHANGER IN MANY WAYS IS EXACTLY HOW THE SOUTHERN STREAM

HANDLES THE SOUTHERN END OF TROF AXIS...IF IT SLOWS AND BREAKS

OFF...FORMING A NEW SOUTHEASTERN STATES SURFACE LOW. I`VE WATCHED

THIS WRINKLE CLOSELY...AND AM NOT READY TO EITHER BUY INTO IT NOR

TOSS IT ASIDE AT THIS POINT.

STILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE

THIS SECONDARY FRONTAL LOW...AS IF IT COMES TO PASS...THINGS COULD

GO DOWNHILL RATHER RAPIDLY. LOTS OF DETAIL TO WORK OUT THROUGH

NEXT MONDAY.

GFS developed a secondary low pressure over Arkansas. This would increase directional shear and pressure falls which

would greatly increasing the tornado risk.

[november rain]

Thanks for posting that link Buckeyefan and what really intrigued me was the face in the storm as I had forgotten all about it. Viewing it gave me a chill as what I see is the classic facial image of a gray alien and I really do not believe in such.

I hope I will never have to live a nightmare of reality such as that, the closest I have been to a tornado was the one that went through Newberry SC many years ago that caused a lot of damage

[nrgjeff]

Mon/Tue looking rough for the Tennessee Valley into the Deep South. ECWMF points to lots of heavy rain and a few HP supercells due to positive tilt of trough. GFS would include numerous HP supercells and a few classic supercells ahead of the line, still with heavy rain. GFS showing neutral to slight negative tilt. The neg tilt can be bittersweet, perhaps too much lift and junk convection. Chaser in me hoping for neutral.

Too early to hash out svr parameters or pinpoint mesoscale features. However I will concur with my optimistic Carolina friends. Two days of southwest flow should clear out any cooler air east of the Apps. Carolinas and Southeast Coast appear to be in play after the Tennessee Valley and Deep South get clobbered.

Back in my Great Plains homeland I would chase where outflow boundary(ies) OFB intersect the dry line. I prefer OFB to the synoptic warm front because you get the great localized helicity max without the risk of cool stable air on the other side. The South terrain does not offer such luxury for a chaser. I'd probably evaluate terrain as much as intersecting boundaries, and try to find the best terrain closest to the intersecting boundaries. Sunday night convection coming out of the southern Plains should leave OFBs across the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley east into Mississippi and western Tenn. Maybe throw out a target area this weekend, but too early attm. The midweek chase would be nice to avoid weekend warriors, but it would have to be on decent terrain.

Good forecasting!

[FoothillsNC]

still not sure how this ends up, since the tilt of the trough is going to mean everything. The model camps are everywhere from progressive and pretty fast (ECMWF and GFS sped up too) but the GGEM is still cutting it off late. Right now I side with the GFS.

[Lookout]

Going to be nice to not have a damn easterly flow/wedge screwing everything up for a change. That seems to happen the majority of the time.

[eyewall]

Timing looks terrible on the gfs for nc. It has the front in central nc by 12z Tuesday.

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[LithiaWx]

Just for comparison, the Super Outbreak of 1974 followed a very strong La Nina. I would not dare to suggest this event will be as severe but that is one similarity.

[gcashwell]

I am ready for the NAM to get well within range so the models can start to converge towards a common solution. I don't like this disagreement.

[ATL_Militarypolice]

So far today it looks like the GFS has sped up the arrival of the front. Both 12Z models are in decent agreement in bringing the front pushing into Central TN/Ky and into NW AL by 0Z on the 5th pushing into Georgia by 6Z and eventually the Carolinas by 12Z. Due to the speedier solution now it looks to me like the GFS has trended to a more phased solution similar to the Euro and just one main SLP by Monday instead of a more broad area of with two SLP. The secondary low on the 0Z GFS was helping to back winds and increase pressure falls increasing the overall tornado threat for MS/AL/GA. The American models have trended away from this idea, and more towards the Euro solution with forcing orientated closer to main frontal system rather than over a broad area of the warm sector. At this time I feel the worst of the severe weather may come in the form of damaging winds as a very potent scroll-line develops along the frontal boundary and races east. Of course can't rule out discrete cells out ahead of the main line...If we do get any discrete cells it won't take much for them to go tornadic quite easily. Also tornadoes within the line could be quite possible as well...I'm no expert by any-means so take it with a grain of salt...this is just based on what I have seen so far off models lately, but it's too early to really bet on this quite yet since models could very well trend back to their very ominous look they had earlier...Regardless don't let your guard down cause this could still be quite significant.

[downeastnc]

How do the current model runs look compared to the 1984 Carolina's outbreak? I know the LP was very deep over SC but the track seem close but I am on my phone so I details aren't so good.

[ryan1234]

How do the current model runs look compared to the 1984 Carolina's outbreak? I know the LP was very deep over SC but the track seem close but I am on my phone so I details aren't so good.

Models are showing more of a widespread wind threat, over a tornado threat atm. Hopefully things will change, as I would love to go on a chase!

[Gastonwxman]

With regard to instability and taking into account of the strong shear that would be available, QLCS appear to be available this go around but could be quite powerful and would definitely threaten certain areas with tornadic development given the highly dynamic setup. The characteristics of the trough and its behavior as it swings into the region looks to support a progressively deepening low pressure moving across the Southeast. The strength of the convection along the cold front is looking more and more likely to be on a severe level and would induce storms in which wind damage would be of great concern especially the area of storms that bow, and potential for large hail. The shear looks strong as well in the wind field, with the 0-3KM shear showing impressive wind speeds between 50-60 kts (58-69 mph).

[ryan1234]

With regard to instability and taking into account of the strong shear that would be available, QLCS appear to be available this go around but could be quite powerful and would definitely threaten certain areas with tornadic development given the highly dynamic setup. The characteristics of the trough and its behavior as it swings into the region looks to support a progressively deepening low pressure moving across the Southeast. The strength of the convection along the cold front is looking more and more likely to be on a severe level and would induce storms in which wind damage would be of great concern especially the area of storms that bow, and potential for large hail. The shear looks strong as well in the wind field, with the 0-3KM shear showing impressive wind speeds between 50-60 kts (58-69 mph).

Any chance the models could go back to how they were on Weds and Thursday? That was some pretty ominous stuff.

[Gastonwxman]

Any chance the models could go back to how they were on Weds and Thursday? That was some pretty ominous stuff.

Certainly possible. The chance for a major severe weather outbreak is legit and models can just as easily adjust to their earlier solutions for this situation. There's no definite, of course, on their part but I would keep my eye on the new data that comes in. Like I've stated earlier, I'm curious of how well the verification of the modeling will fair versus that of reality for this event. We shall see.

[ryan1234]

Certainly possible. The chance for a major severe weather outbreak is legit and models can just as easily adjust to their earlier solutions for this situation. There's no definite, of course, on their part but I would keep my eye on the new data that comes in. Like I've stated earlier, I'm curious of how well the verification of the modeling will fair versus that of reality for this event. We shall see.

Thanks for the information! Seems that models tend to go back to earlier solutions, at least it was that way this winter. Like you said it's a wait and see situation.

[weatherman566]

I think the biggest question is the location of low pressure. If a secondary low develops in the SE, that will definitely increase the tornado threat as instability/helicity values grow. As of the 18z runs, we have a strong area of low pressure developing and moving towards Canada. In that run, as stated in previous posts, would likely become a line of severe storms.

Timing is the biggest question mark in my opinion. If this system slows down, then the threat of severe weather could increase as well....especially for the Carolinas (system pushing through around 18z instead of 12z)

Where's the popcorn? It's situations like this where you hate to see a significant outbreak, but would love to see it evolve (for the science/research aspect of it)

If you don't have a weather radio, now's a great time to invest in one.

[ryan1234]

I think the biggest question is the location of low pressure. If a secondary low develops in the SE, that will definitely increase the tornado threat as instability/helicity values grow. As of the 18z runs, we have a strong area of low pressure developing and moving towards Canada. In that run, as stated in previous posts, would likely become a line of severe storms.

Timing is the biggest question mark in my opinion. If this system slows down, then the threat of severe weather could increase as well....especially for the Carolinas (system pushing through around 18z instead of 12z)

Where's the popcorn? It's situations like this where you hate to see a significant outbreak, but would love to see it evolve (for the science/research aspect of it)

If you don't have a weather radio, now's a great time to invest in one.

ITA agree with everything you just stated. I too would like to see a severe weather outbreak for the science/research aspect. But as we know with that comes loss of properties and injuries. And everyone should have a weather radio! It's worth the money!

[eyewall]

FAIL for NC in terms of something big as per SPC. We would be day 4 but it is now back to "predictability too low".

[Ellinwood]

FAIL for NC in terms of something big as per SPC. We would be day 4 but it is now back to "predictability too low".

A day 4 threat would probably be just along the immediate coast... without the secondary developing the storms are more free to just whip across the region and exit off the coast before Tuesday afternoon.

[eyewall]

Yeah this is true. It would be nice to have one decent shot this spring after last year's pos severe season. I have not seen the morning runs to see if they are still quick with the front like yesterday.

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[UNCCmetgrad]

Yeah this is true. It would be nice to have one decent shot this spring after last year's pos severe season. I have not seen the morning runs to see if they are still quick with the front like yesterday.

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Looks like crappy timing for the Carolinas right now as the front is move through in the middle of the night. GFS still brings the front and attendant squall line the quickest as it would move into the mountains around 9pm Monday night and into the piedmont by around midnight. The NAM is about 3-4 hours slower. The EURO right now looks like the worst solution as far as severe weather chances as of moves the any squall line would move through the foothills and piedmont of North Carolina right around or just after sunrise Tuesday morning. It also does a Carolina split as it looks to weaken the line as it passes over the mountains of North Carolina. By far the best looking solution if you want severe weather is the NAM. Dynamics and shear are quite impressive. It also has the best instability as BUFKIT soundings show CAPE of about 500J/kg. This may be a little overdone however. The NAM also has the best tornadic threat with favorable helicity (around 300) values in both the 1km and 3km range. Its just a matter of getting enough lift to tap into this rotation.

[FoothillsNC]

timing couldn't be worse in the Carolinas, after dark and midnight most likely or early morning for everybody. The models really dropped the idea of a deep trough, it doesn't dig nearly as far south as they all had earlier this week. Atleast on the NAM there is a strong temp. gradient. Its 0 just west of AVL and near +12 at CLT Tue at 66 hour so thats a pretty tight front.

[eyewall]

Yeah I agree this sucks. Looks like a FAIL all around for NC on this one. I should have known this would be the case when it looked good early on.

[ryan1234]

I would wait another day before we all scream FAIL. As we all know things can and will change.

[iceman]

Yeah I agree this sucks. Looks like a FAIL all around for NC on this one. I should have known this would be the case when it looked good early on.

Dude, you are the most pessimistic cat I have ever seen.

[downeastnc]

Yeah I agree this sucks. Looks like a FAIL all around for NC on this one. I should have known this would be the case when it looked good early on.

Maybe its just my personal perception of things but it seems that central and eastern NC has lots of timing issues IRT severe weather events during the spring and fall. Its like there is a natural law that states all squall lines must hit our part of NC between the hrs of 10pm to 6 am. Sadly this leads to NC leading the nation in nighttime deaths during tornados. I cant remember the last time we had a severe threat for the middle of the day in the eastern part of NC, during spring or fall.

The last time I can remember several days of good daytime severe storms were May 2009 when central and eastern NC had several days of tornadic supes on a stalled out warm front. Its the only time I successfully intercepted a tornado on a chase and I havent really chased another good looking discrete supe with a hook since.

Oh well still plenty of chasing days left May and June are usually the best months around here anyways.

[LithiaWx]

I would wait another day before we all scream FAIL. As we all know things can and will change.

Not really, things are looking like it's going to be a big squall line. The LP will be way to the north. I'd like to see it hundreds of miles further south, this is not just a timing issue. I don't see many tornadoes, more of a wind event for most in the southeast. I think Mississippi has a better chance than anyone else in the southeast and they still won't have it that good. There will be storms and there will be tornadoes but no big outbreak that's pretty certain imo. We will see Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado warnings in the southeast but what we won't see is a memorable outbreak.

[eyewall]

Not really, things are looking like it's going to be a big squall line. The LP will be way to the north. I'd like to see it hundreds of miles further south, this is not just a timing issue. I don't see many tornadoes, more of a wind event for most in the southeast. I think Mississippi has a better chance than anyone else in the southeast and they still won't have it that good. There will be storms and there will be tornadoes but no big outbreak that's pretty certain imo. We will see Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and Tornado warnings in the southeast but what we won't see is a memorable outbreak.

This is true we would really need the LP much farther south or some sort of secondary development in addition to the timing. Ideally a triple point crossing the piedmont at peak heating or supercells crossing a warm front would be nice

[eyewall]

Dude, you are the most pessimistic cat I have ever seen.

No just a realist. When something shows up in a model so far out it usually isn't going to verify. IE if the timing is good in the models at that time it is likely to shift in future runs. There are rare cases where the models nail something big early on and lock in but this isn't one of those situations.