Ger Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 My bet is that they'll keep mentioning the threat of PCPN for the storm until tomorrow evening at the earliest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 everyone will stay pretty wimpy on it for now im sure. even last yr it was tough to get anyone to be bullish after we'd already been buried once or twice. in this case it would be hard to be too bullish at least now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 everyone will stay pretty wimpy on it for now im sure. even last yr it was tough to get anyone to be bullish after we'd already been buried once or twice. in this case it would be hard to be too bullish at least now. Yeah, after the early February blizzard tho they kinda went gung-ho on the 9/10 event: I think I remember them calling for 20-30 inches area-wide in the WSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Partly sunny and cold in LWX's zones right now for the weekend. Don't see the afternoon AFD yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Partly sunny and cold in LWX's zones right now for the weekend. Don't see the afternoon AFD yet. the zones are from 12:30PM. The AFD will probably have a mention... but the usual too far out to tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Maybe they're angry about the pay freeze and don't feel like doing too much work LOL j/k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I think they should be cautious...afterall, this is DC. I'd make passing mention of it, but nothing really great yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 No mention of snow in the digital forecast in the 3 PM update and the AFD doesn't mention it at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ger Posted November 29, 2010 Author Share Posted November 29, 2010 Can anyone explain what accounts for the lack of sleet in our recent snowstorms (going all the way back to 3/1/09) other than the obvious explanation: plenty cold air? In our big ones we usually battle the sleet line...if you extrapolate both the possible storms on 12/5 and 12/9-10 neither one, right now, looks like we'd have to worry about any mixed PCPN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Can anyone explain what accounts for the lack of sleet in our recent snowstorms (going all the way back to 3/1/09) other than the obvious explanation: plenty cold air? In our big ones we usually battle the sleet line...if you extrapolate both the possible storms on 12/5 and 12/9-10 neither one, right now, looks like we'd have to worry about any mixed PCPN Plenty of cold air and being on the western side of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 This is all that LWX is saying... A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM COULD CAUSE SOME LIGHT PCPN SATNIGHT/SUN. WILL KEEP CONFINED TO FAR WRN HIGHER ELEVATIONS ATTM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Can anyone explain what accounts for the lack of sleet in our recent snowstorms (going all the way back to 3/1/09) other than the obvious explanation: plenty cold air? In our big ones we usually battle the sleet line...if you extrapolate both the possible storms on 12/5 and 12/9-10 neither one, right now, looks like we'd have to worry about any mixed PCPN The blocking ... significant sleet events around here are usually caused by the upper level energy going up into the Ohio Valley, but enough cold air remains banked against the mountains closer to the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Can anyone explain what accounts for the lack of sleet in our recent snowstorms (going all the way back to 3/1/09) other than the obvious explanation: plenty cold air? In our big ones we usually battle the sleet line...if you extrapolate both the possible storms on 12/5 and 12/9-10 neither one, right now, looks like we'd have to worry about any mixed PCPN It's about the temperatures and dynamics in the atmosphere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I think it is a little silly to expect snow calls based on one model run almost 7 days out. All it should garner is mention that a storm will possibly form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 NBC 12 here in Richmond, VA has 30 percent of rain on Sunday with High of 48 and says snow north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SeanVA Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 NBC 12 here in Richmond, VA has 30 percent of rain on Sunday with High of 48 and says snow north That's bullish for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 I think it is a little silly to expect snow calls based on one model run almost 7 days out. All it should garner is mention that a storm will possibly form. Violently Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarolineWx Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 That's bullish for them Yes and Ros Runner from NBC12 on Twitter is already talking about snow being possible on Sunday, He says snow is possible with highest chance north of Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JMU2004 Posted November 29, 2010 Share Posted November 29, 2010 Yes and Ros Runner from NBC12 on Twitter is already talking about snow being possible on Sunday, He says snow is possible with highest chance north of Richmond. NBC 12 has always been overly conservative in their forecasts....while 6 and 8 are usually the first to mention even the slightest chance of a flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I don't think there's a need to hype anything up at this point. It's at the far end of the long-range forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 I don't think there's a need to hype anything up at this point. It's at the far end of the long-range forecast. I agree with this. Its still a week away, at earliest and things could change. I think they're being prudent and smart. Especially around here. One word of snow and people tend to go crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 NBC 12 has always been overly conservative in their forecasts....while 6 and 8 are usually the first to mention even the slightest chance of a flake. Yep....just like they predicted 3-6" for January 30-31 the day prior while DT was screaming 10-15" all over WRVA.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Mention what? It is a chance for some slop a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 New guy on NBC 4 DC at 11 p.m. had chance of snow Sunday in his extended forecast.. I think forums like this, weather blogs, accuweather, etc, are forcing T.V. mets to take greater risks in mentioning snow chances than they would have before. Earlier today, on some D.C. blog, they were talking about how the Washington Post local site was already teasing a chance of snow for the weekend.. I think t.v. mets are seeing this, and under pressure from their station managers to also step up and be a tad bolder, even though in years past they would have waited much longer to mention the possibility. Despite the new media paradim, LWX should be under no similar pressure to toss out the "snow" word this early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ioke09 Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 If you want to see a conservative forecast check out ABC7's forecast; they just say mostly sunny skies for the weekend. It's not unusual to see ABC7 jump in later than the other stations. I also don't think the new guy at NBC4 is quite as conservative as Bob Ryan was; maybe he liked something from the latest model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Tony Pann on WBAL just mentioned possible rain/snow for Saturday into Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Looks like they were wise not to get too excited about the dec 5 threat as the euro and its ensembles have backed off on it and now have the cold air overwhelming everything. The euro also got rid of its goofy super strong closed low that the 12Z 240 hour forecast had near LA. It's still got a southern stream shortwave but a much weaker one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Looks like they were wise not to get too excited about the dec 5 threat as the euro and its ensembles have backed off on it and now have the cold air overwhelming everything. The euro also got rid of its goofy super strong closed low that the 12Z 240 hour forecast had near LA. It's still got a southern stream shortwave but a much weaker one. looks like the threats are over..just like that. Enjoy your cold and snowless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 looks like the threats are over..just like that. Enjoy your cold and snowless Models are all over the place right now, can't say it's over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted November 30, 2010 Share Posted November 30, 2010 Models are all over the place right now, can't say it's over yet. It's to be expected with Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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