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Winter/Flooding Storm Threat April 3-5


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euro sucks with qpf...gets drier each run.

BWP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.3     4.3    1000      71      95    0.06     551     552    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.9     4.5     993      90      67    0.06     548     553    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   5.4     1.4     994      70      37    0.02     541     546    
MON 00Z 04-APR   3.7    -3.4     995      77      53    0.00     531     535    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.7    -5.3    1003      85      57    0.02     530     527    

DLH

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.8    -1.8    1003      91     100    0.18     548     546    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   2.6    -0.9     995      88      89    0.21     545     549    
MON 00Z 04-APR   3.9     0.5     991      87      37    0.04     538     546    
MON 06Z 04-APR   1.6    -3.3     990      85      45    0.00     524     533    
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.1    -5.6     995      85      76    0.02     523     528

FAR

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.5     2.8    1000      65      98    0.03     549     550    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   3.3     3.0     993      89      71    0.06     545     551    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   6.0    -0.1     993      64      19    0.02     538     544    
MON 00Z 04-APR   3.8    -3.3     993      82      51    0.01     528     533    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.6    -5.6    1003      80      61    0.03     529     526    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -2.0    -7.3    1010      63      39    0.00     528     521        

GFK

SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.8    -0.2     994      91      68    0.07     542     547    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   5.8    -1.7     991      72      11    0.01     533     541    
MON 00Z 04-APR   2.3    -4.3     994      93      81    0.03     526     531    
MON 06Z 04-APR  -0.1    -6.2    1004      69      79    0.04     528     524    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -2.2    -7.5    1010      70      44    0.00     528     520 

MSP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   7.0     2.5    1007      53      89    0.01     554     548    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   5.0     6.0     998      81      56    0.15     553     555    
SUN 18Z 03-APR  15.1     5.4     991      61      59    0.00     550     558    
MON 00Z 04-APR   8.3     2.1     994      59      34    0.03     544     549    
MON 06Z 04-APR   3.0    -4.7     996      78      34    0.00     533     536    
MON 12Z 04-APR   1.2    -6.2    1003      70      59    0.01     529     527

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euro sucks with qpf...gets drier each run.

BWP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.3 	4.3    1000      71      95    0.06 	551 	552    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.9 	4.5 	993      90      67    0.06 	548 	553    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   5.4 	1.4 	994      70      37    0.02 	541 	546    
MON 00Z 04-APR   3.7    -3.4 	995      77      53    0.00 	531 	535    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.7    -5.3    1003      85      57    0.02 	530 	527    

DLH

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.8    -1.8    1003      91 	100    0.18 	548 	546    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   2.6    -0.9 	995      88      89    0.21 	545 	549    
MON 00Z 04-APR   3.9 	0.5 	991      87      37    0.04 	538 	546    
MON 06Z 04-APR   1.6    -3.3 	990      85      45    0.00 	524 	533    
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.1    -5.6 	995      85      76    0.02 	523 	528

FAR

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.5 	2.8    1000      65      98    0.03 	549 	550    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   3.3 	3.0 	993      89      71    0.06 	545 	551    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   6.0    -0.1 	993      64      19    0.02 	538 	544    
MON 00Z 04-APR   3.8    -3.3 	993      82      51    0.01 	528 	533    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.6    -5.6    1003      80      61    0.03 	529 	526    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -2.0    -7.3    1010      63      39    0.00 	528 	521        

GFK

SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.8    -0.2 	994      91      68    0.07 	542 	547    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   5.8    -1.7 	991      72      11    0.01 	533 	541    
MON 00Z 04-APR   2.3    -4.3 	994      93      81    0.03 	526 	531    
MON 06Z 04-APR  -0.1    -6.2    1004      69      79    0.04 	528 	524    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -2.2    -7.5    1010      70      44    0.00 	528 	520 

MSP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   7.0 	2.5    1007      53      89    0.01 	554 	548    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   5.0 	6.0 	998      81      56    0.15 	553 	555    
SUN 18Z 03-APR  15.1 	5.4 	991      61      59    0.00 	550 	558    
MON 00Z 04-APR   8.3 	2.1 	994      59      34    0.03 	544 	549    
MON 06Z 04-APR   3.0    -4.7 	996      78      34    0.00 	533 	536    
MON 12Z 04-APR   1.2    -6.2    1003      70      59    0.01 	529 	527

huzzah!!!! We just had a briefing about this storm, i'm still gonna wait to get excited til tonights 00z.

You may need to tone down excitement as the GFS/NAM took huge steps towards a dominant leading impulse like the Euro. 12Z Euro has the leading wave well into CA with a large dryslot over much of ND.

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You may need to tone down excitement as the GFS/NAM took huge steps towards a dominant leading impulse like the Euro. 12Z Euro has the leading wave well into CA with a large dryslot over much of ND.

Ya, i've tempered my excitement. It'll be tough with the mountains but we'll need to see how our thermal pattern shapes up as this comes on shore, but the stronger lead wave being further north sure is the trend right now. 00z will make or break this, I mean gfs,nam,ukmet,ggem all hammer gfk with ecmwf north but the trend is not our friend so i'll give it another run or 2.

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Ya, i've tempered my excitement. It'll be tough with the mountains but we'll need to see how our thermal pattern shapes up as this comes on shore, but the stronger lead wave being further north sure is the trend right now. 00z will make or break this, I mean gfs,nam,ukmet,ggem all hammer gfk with ecmwf north but the trend is not our friend so i'll give it another run or 2.

I ran the ukie text output for the hell of it and ukie says, april fools or congrats.

DLH 1.32

FAR 1.02

GFK 1.47

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I think it shifted a bit north, but still 36 hours out unless the euro comes south a huge spread, everything but the ecmwf has trended north so we'll have to see I just got back from a bar with penny beers so i'm useless anyways.

yeah it shifted n a tad but gfk qpf is 1.38 on the ukie...the model has me at 61 for a high on sunday before temps crash but doubt that with still snowcover.

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I think it shifted a bit north, but still 36 hours out unless the euro comes south a huge spread, everything but the ecmwf has trended north so we'll have to see I just got back from a bar with penny beers so i'm useless anyways.

Haha--good ole Grand Forks. I never did that thank goodness--I can only imagine the pain the next day after downing a few crap beers.

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Haha--good ole Grand Forks. I never did that thank goodness--I can only imagine the pain the next day after downing a few crap beers.

lol penny beers from 8-10 Borrowed Bucks Bud, Bud Light, Miller Light and Pabst. Its not crap beer it's a great deal they just get you in and get you drunk then raise prices at 10.

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yeah it shifted n a tad but gfk qpf is 1.38 on the ukie...the model has me at 61 for a high on sunday before temps crash but doubt that with still snowcover.

really 1.38? interesting, Mark (baro learned his synoptic from him) wasn't quite sure the euro was correct and thought that the euro might be a bit to far north, we'll see tomorrow way to many things that can lead to a positive feedback further north track i'd think we don't have that much room to shift back south though. I'd say maybe a 25-50 mile south shift vs a possible 100 mile north shift in regards to the ukmet,rgem stuff.

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really 1.38? interesting, Mark (baro learned his synoptic from him) wasn't quite sure the euro was correct and thought that the euro might be a bit to far north, we'll see tomorrow way to many things that can lead to a positive feedback further north track i'd think we don't have that much room to shift back south though. I'd say maybe a 25-50 mile south shift vs a possible 100 mile north shift in regards to the ukmet,rgem stuff.

Mark said that? I would love to talk weather with Askelson again someday!

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really 1.38? interesting, Mark (baro learned his synoptic from him) wasn't quite sure the euro was correct and thought that the euro might be a bit to far north, we'll see tomorrow way to many things that can lead to a positive feedback further north track i'd think we don't have that much room to shift back south though. I'd say maybe a 25-50 mile south shift vs a possible 100 mile north shift in regards to the ukmet,rgem stuff.

yep, 1.38 via ukie...ggem for gfk 0.86...was 0.94 on the 12z run.

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Mark said that? I would love to talk weather with Askelson again someday!

lol ya he was looking for isentropic forecast charts and the earl barker stuff seemed messed up and then i brought up your ipv stuff and i thought you used the washington met stuff but wasn't sure. We started up 12:30 weather briefings everyday this was mark's first briefing in forever but he did awesome ( you know him he got way too technical for a briefing) but it was awesome. Alot of QG equation forcing function and stuff but great briefing he still thinks that things wont be sure until we get a decent view of how the thermo pattern sets up and how our advection schemes are but just looking at those long range ruc 18 hr forecasts it just looks like a warm shower crap fest down here. We'll see though.

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yep, 1.38 via ukie...ggem for gfk 0.86...was 0.94 on the 12z run.

still HUGE model differences, gfk was like .2 on the euro something has to bust. Euro was the first global to pick up on the gfk dry air battle and dropped qpf significantly 24 hours in advance of the storm and I didn't wanna believe it.

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lol ya he was looking for isentropic forecast charts and the earl barker stuff seemed messed up and then i brought up your ipv stuff and i thought you used the washington met stuff but wasn't sure. We started up 12:30 weather briefings everyday this was mark's first briefing in forever but he did awesome ( you know him he got way too technical for a briefing) but it was awesome. Alot of QG equation forcing function and stuff but great briefing he still thinks that things wont be sure until we get a decent view of how the thermo pattern sets up and how our advection schemes are but just looking at those long range ruc 18 hr forecasts it just looks like a warm shower crap fest down here. We'll see though.

U of Utah has nice DT maps.

http://weather.utah....fs004&r=NH&d=DT

SUNY Albany has nice DT maps as well.

http://www.atmos.alb...els/gfs_dt.html

http://www.atmos.alb...ex.php?d=wx_nwp

U of Wash has a couple hemispheric maps at the very bottom of the page:

http://www.atmos.was...u/~ovens/loops/

I just made a killer 4 panel AWIPS DT map with 1.5 PVU/pressure, 250 winds, 925 theta, SLP/Winds mainly to track moist latent heat release potential and feedback/self development.

When Askelson says something I always listen, haha.

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U of Utah has nice DT maps.

http://weather.utah....fs004&r=NH&d=DT

SUNY Albany has nice DT maps as well.

http://www.atmos.alb...els/gfs_dt.html

http://www.atmos.alb...ex.php?d=wx_nwp

U of Wash has a couple hemispheric maps at the very bottom of the page:

http://www.atmos.was...u/~ovens/loops/

I just made a killer 4 panel AWIPS DT map with 1.5 PVU/pressure, 250 winds, 925 theta, SLP/Winds mainly to track potential moist latent heat release potential.

When Askelson says something I always listen, haha.

Nice maps, but do you know of somewhere to plot certain isentropic surfaces to look at isentropic lift. Like a place for example you could put a 295k surface and winds or the montgomery stream function to look at rising air as it is lifted north. Earl Barkers site was messed up we had westerly winds and downward motion at 48 hours on his plots for the next storm. I know you do the DT stuff but I was wondering if you knew a good place to plot the different kelvin surfaces with winds plots of M. stream functions.

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Nice maps, but do you know of somewhere to plot certain isentropic surfaces to look at isentropic lift. Like a place for example you could put a 295k surface and winds or the montgomery stream function to look at rising air as it is lifted north. Earl Barkers site was messed up we had westerly winds and downward motion at 48 hours on his plots for the next storm. I know you do the DT stuff but I was wondering if you knew a good place to plot the different kelvin surfaces with winds plots of M. stream functions.

I honestly don't use Isentropic charts much--maybe I should--but their usability breaks down fast once things are no longer adiabatic. One thing that always turned me off from isentropic charts is they are not a "reason" for why things are happening--just a way at looking at the why--if that makes sense. Similar to looking at VV maps alone--it is dependent on the dynamical equations (of course the model parametrizations, etc as well) to come to those VV fields. IPV/QG explains the why dynamically/thermodynamically. That said--I know of very few isentropic charts. They are hard to find.

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0z euro qpf

BWP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.1     3.5    1001      70      86    0.04     552     552    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.5     4.9     995      88      70    0.12     549     554    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   4.2     3.4     996      88      84    0.02     546     549    
MON 00Z 04-APR   3.2    -2.3    1000      92      14    0.01     543     543    
MON 06Z 04-APR   1.1    -5.1    1007      95      71    0.02     538     533    

DLH

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.3    -2.9    1005      91     100    0.18     549     544    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   2.4    -2.3     999      84      89    0.16     547     548    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.3     0.0     997      94      94    0.05     544     547    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.5    -3.4     999      93      40    0.02     540     541    
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.5    -5.7    1004      89      86    0.01     535     532    
MON 18Z 04-APR   4.8    -5.7    1007      57      45    0.01     532     526    

FAR

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.0     2.1    1002      72      93    0.05     550     549    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.4     1.5     997      87      82    0.15     547     550    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   5.3     0.5     996      81      75    0.02     544     547    
MON 00Z 04-APR   2.9    -3.4    1001      94      25    0.02     541     540    
MON 06Z 04-APR   1.1    -4.9    1008      93      84    0.03     536     529    

GFK

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.3    -0.8    1004      75      97    0.02     547     544    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.9    -2.2     999      94      98    0.09     544     545    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   3.2    -2.6     999      90      56    0.05     540     542    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.5    -4.5    1004      98      78    0.10     536     533    
MON 06Z 04-APR  -0.8    -5.1    1011      78      93    0.05     534     526    

MSP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   6.2     2.2    1007      58      94    0.02     554     548    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   4.7     5.5     999      78      54    0.09     555     555    
SUN 18Z 03-APR  16.4     5.8     991      55      46    0.00     554     561    
MON 00Z 04-APR  13.4     6.9     992      75      78    0.02     550     557    
MON 06Z 04-APR   3.9    -0.8     999      92      39    0.05     545     546    
MON 12Z 04-APR   2.0    -5.9    1004      86      56    0.01     540     536    

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12 euro qpf

BWP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.1     3.6    1000      73      97    0.05     552     552    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.2     4.5     994      90      58    0.07     549     554    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   4.7     2.0     996      87      55    0.01     545     548    
MON 00Z 04-APR   2.4    -3.2    1000      95      28    0.01     541     541    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.8    -5.0    1008      92      85    0.03     535     528    

DLH

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.2    -2.6    1005      93      99    0.23     548     545    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.9    -2.2     998      87      89    0.23     546     547    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.2    -0.4     997      93      67    0.06     543     545    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.4    -4.3     999      93      70    0.03     537     538    
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.7    -5.5    1004      89      86    0.03     530     527    
MON 18Z 04-APR   4.5    -6.3    1007      54      33    0.01     530     525    

FAR

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.1     1.8    1001      70      99    0.07     550     549    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.5     1.2     996      90      81    0.12     547     550    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   4.2    -0.2     996      88      39    0.02     543     546    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.7    -4.3    1001      98      73    0.03     538     537    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.5    -4.9    1009      86      91    0.04     534     527    

GFK

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.8    -1.0    1003      68     100    0.03     547     544    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.2    -2.2     999      97      97    0.27     544     544    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.8    -3.5     999      97      79    0.09     539     540    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.4    -4.6    1004      98      89    0.13     534     530    
MON 06Z 04-APR  -1.2    -5.5    1011      69      73    0.04     533     524  

MSP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   7.0     2.9    1006      53      98    0.01     554     549    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   5.1     5.8     998      73      52    0.11     555     557    
SUN 18Z 03-APR  17.2     6.2     991      57      54    0.00     552     560    
MON 00Z 04-APR  11.9     5.2     993      77      70    0.03     548     554    
MON 06Z 04-APR   4.0    -2.2     999      86      14    0.03     543     544    
MON 12Z 04-APR   2.1    -5.6    1005      85      74    0.01     536     531    
MON 18Z 04-APR   7.1    -5.3    1010      44      47    0.03     534     526      

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12 euro qpf

BWP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.1 	3.6    1000      73      97    0.05 	552 	552    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.2 	4.5 	994      90      58    0.07 	549 	554    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   4.7 	2.0 	996      87      55    0.01 	545 	548    
MON 00Z 04-APR   2.4    -3.2    1000      95      28    0.01 	541 	541    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.8    -5.0    1008      92      85    0.03 	535 	528    

DLH

SUN 12Z 03-APR   0.2    -2.6    1005      93      99    0.23 	548 	545    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.9    -2.2 	998      87      89    0.23 	546 	547    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.2    -0.4 	997      93      67    0.06 	543 	545    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.4    -4.3 	999      93      70    0.03 	537 	538    
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.7    -5.5    1004      89      86    0.03 	530 	527    
MON 18Z 04-APR   4.5    -6.3    1007      54      33    0.01 	530 	525    

FAR

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.1 	1.8    1001      70      99    0.07 	550 	549    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.5 	1.2 	996      90      81    0.12 	547 	550    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   4.2    -0.2 	996      88      39    0.02 	543 	546    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.7    -4.3    1001      98      73    0.03 	538 	537    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.5    -4.9    1009      86      91    0.04 	534 	527    

GFK

SUN 06Z 03-APR   4.8    -1.0    1003      68 	100    0.03 	547 	544    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.2    -2.2 	999      97      97    0.27 	544 	544    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.8    -3.5 	999      97      79    0.09 	539 	540    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.4    -4.6    1004      98      89    0.13 	534 	530    
MON 06Z 04-APR  -1.2    -5.5    1011      69      73    0.04 	533 	524  

MSP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   7.0 	2.9    1006      53      98    0.01 	554 	549    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   5.1 	5.8 	998      73      52    0.11 	555 	557    
SUN 18Z 03-APR  17.2 	6.2 	991      57      54    0.00 	552 	560    
MON 00Z 04-APR  11.9 	5.2 	993      77      70    0.03 	548 	554    
MON 06Z 04-APR   4.0    -2.2 	999      86      14    0.03 	543 	544    
MON 12Z 04-APR   2.1    -5.6    1005      85      74    0.01 	536 	531    
MON 18Z 04-APR   7.1    -5.3    1010      44      47    0.03 	534 	526      

Thanks for the numbers. I still have no clue about this storm lot of things can go wrong in gfk or we could get clobbered like the 12z NMM run.

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