Derek30 Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 This may make up for last week's storm that trended south late. Would be nice to get some nicer instability, though. Thundersnow is incredibly rare up here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 12z ukie hammers "cmichweather & mnweather"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 euro sucks with qpf...gets drier each run. BWP SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.3 4.3 1000 71 95 0.06 551 552 SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.9 4.5 993 90 67 0.06 548 553 SUN 18Z 03-APR 5.4 1.4 994 70 37 0.02 541 546 MON 00Z 04-APR 3.7 -3.4 995 77 53 0.00 531 535 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.7 -5.3 1003 85 57 0.02 530 527 DLH SUN 12Z 03-APR 0.8 -1.8 1003 91 100 0.18 548 546 SUN 18Z 03-APR 2.6 -0.9 995 88 89 0.21 545 549 MON 00Z 04-APR 3.9 0.5 991 87 37 0.04 538 546 MON 06Z 04-APR 1.6 -3.3 990 85 45 0.00 524 533 MON 12Z 04-APR 0.1 -5.6 995 85 76 0.02 523 528 FAR SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.5 2.8 1000 65 98 0.03 549 550 SUN 12Z 03-APR 3.3 3.0 993 89 71 0.06 545 551 SUN 18Z 03-APR 6.0 -0.1 993 64 19 0.02 538 544 MON 00Z 04-APR 3.8 -3.3 993 82 51 0.01 528 533 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.6 -5.6 1003 80 61 0.03 529 526 MON 12Z 04-APR -2.0 -7.3 1010 63 39 0.00 528 521 GFK SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.8 -0.2 994 91 68 0.07 542 547 SUN 18Z 03-APR 5.8 -1.7 991 72 11 0.01 533 541 MON 00Z 04-APR 2.3 -4.3 994 93 81 0.03 526 531 MON 06Z 04-APR -0.1 -6.2 1004 69 79 0.04 528 524 MON 12Z 04-APR -2.2 -7.5 1010 70 44 0.00 528 520 MSP SUN 06Z 03-APR 7.0 2.5 1007 53 89 0.01 554 548 SUN 12Z 03-APR 5.0 6.0 998 81 56 0.15 553 555 SUN 18Z 03-APR 15.1 5.4 991 61 59 0.00 550 558 MON 00Z 04-APR 8.3 2.1 994 59 34 0.03 544 549 MON 06Z 04-APR 3.0 -4.7 996 78 34 0.00 533 536 MON 12Z 04-APR 1.2 -6.2 1003 70 59 0.01 529 527 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 12z ukie hammers "cmichweather & mnweather"... huzzah!!!! We just had a briefing about this storm, i'm still gonna wait to get excited til tonights 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 GD, i shouldn't have even posted til i saw the euro and driving the best thermal advection and lift north of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 1, 2011 Author Share Posted April 1, 2011 euro sucks with qpf...gets drier each run. BWP SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.3 4.3 1000 71 95 0.06 551 552 SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.9 4.5 993 90 67 0.06 548 553 SUN 18Z 03-APR 5.4 1.4 994 70 37 0.02 541 546 MON 00Z 04-APR 3.7 -3.4 995 77 53 0.00 531 535 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.7 -5.3 1003 85 57 0.02 530 527 DLH SUN 12Z 03-APR 0.8 -1.8 1003 91 100 0.18 548 546 SUN 18Z 03-APR 2.6 -0.9 995 88 89 0.21 545 549 MON 00Z 04-APR 3.9 0.5 991 87 37 0.04 538 546 MON 06Z 04-APR 1.6 -3.3 990 85 45 0.00 524 533 MON 12Z 04-APR 0.1 -5.6 995 85 76 0.02 523 528 FAR SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.5 2.8 1000 65 98 0.03 549 550 SUN 12Z 03-APR 3.3 3.0 993 89 71 0.06 545 551 SUN 18Z 03-APR 6.0 -0.1 993 64 19 0.02 538 544 MON 00Z 04-APR 3.8 -3.3 993 82 51 0.01 528 533 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.6 -5.6 1003 80 61 0.03 529 526 MON 12Z 04-APR -2.0 -7.3 1010 63 39 0.00 528 521 GFK SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.8 -0.2 994 91 68 0.07 542 547 SUN 18Z 03-APR 5.8 -1.7 991 72 11 0.01 533 541 MON 00Z 04-APR 2.3 -4.3 994 93 81 0.03 526 531 MON 06Z 04-APR -0.1 -6.2 1004 69 79 0.04 528 524 MON 12Z 04-APR -2.2 -7.5 1010 70 44 0.00 528 520 MSP SUN 06Z 03-APR 7.0 2.5 1007 53 89 0.01 554 548 SUN 12Z 03-APR 5.0 6.0 998 81 56 0.15 553 555 SUN 18Z 03-APR 15.1 5.4 991 61 59 0.00 550 558 MON 00Z 04-APR 8.3 2.1 994 59 34 0.03 544 549 MON 06Z 04-APR 3.0 -4.7 996 78 34 0.00 533 536 MON 12Z 04-APR 1.2 -6.2 1003 70 59 0.01 529 527 huzzah!!!! We just had a briefing about this storm, i'm still gonna wait to get excited til tonights 00z. You may need to tone down excitement as the GFS/NAM took huge steps towards a dominant leading impulse like the Euro. 12Z Euro has the leading wave well into CA with a large dryslot over much of ND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 You may need to tone down excitement as the GFS/NAM took huge steps towards a dominant leading impulse like the Euro. 12Z Euro has the leading wave well into CA with a large dryslot over much of ND. Ya, i've tempered my excitement. It'll be tough with the mountains but we'll need to see how our thermal pattern shapes up as this comes on shore, but the stronger lead wave being further north sure is the trend right now. 00z will make or break this, I mean gfs,nam,ukmet,ggem all hammer gfk with ecmwf north but the trend is not our friend so i'll give it another run or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 1, 2011 Share Posted April 1, 2011 Ya, i've tempered my excitement. It'll be tough with the mountains but we'll need to see how our thermal pattern shapes up as this comes on shore, but the stronger lead wave being further north sure is the trend right now. 00z will make or break this, I mean gfs,nam,ukmet,ggem all hammer gfk with ecmwf north but the trend is not our friend so i'll give it another run or 2. I ran the ukie text output for the hell of it and ukie says, april fools or congrats. DLH 1.32 FAR 1.02 GFK 1.47 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 0z ukie staying consistent...36 - 60hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 0z ukie staying consistent...36 - 60hr I think it shifted a bit north, but still 36 hours out unless the euro comes south a huge spread, everything but the ecmwf has trended north so we'll have to see I just got back from a bar with penny beers so i'm useless anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 I think it shifted a bit north, but still 36 hours out unless the euro comes south a huge spread, everything but the ecmwf has trended north so we'll have to see I just got back from a bar with penny beers so i'm useless anyways. yeah it shifted n a tad but gfk qpf is 1.38 on the ukie...the model has me at 61 for a high on sunday before temps crash but doubt that with still snowcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 I think it shifted a bit north, but still 36 hours out unless the euro comes south a huge spread, everything but the ecmwf has trended north so we'll have to see I just got back from a bar with penny beers so i'm useless anyways. Haha--good ole Grand Forks. I never did that thank goodness--I can only imagine the pain the next day after downing a few crap beers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 yeah it shifted n a tad but gfk qpf is 1.38 on the ukie...the model has me at 61 for a high on sunday before temps crash but doubt that with still snowcover. Are you an all-season weather lover or do you take a break come summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Are you an all-season weather lover or do you take a break come summer? never take a break, not a true weather nut if you do but thats my opinion. Got my boltek lightning detector the other day so getting excited for severe wx season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 never take a break, not a true weather nut if you do but thats my opinion. Got my boltek lightning detector the other day so getting excited for severe wx season. Good to hear. Although should I have to choose spring is typically the most exciting imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Haha--good ole Grand Forks. I never did that thank goodness--I can only imagine the pain the next day after downing a few crap beers. lol penny beers from 8-10 Borrowed Bucks Bud, Bud Light, Miller Light and Pabst. Its not crap beer it's a great deal they just get you in and get you drunk then raise prices at 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Good to hear. Although should I have to choose spring is typically the most exciting imo. Well for "our" neck of the woods late spring and the end of summer is the prime time for up here we usually get that july crap fest with the ridge expanding across the plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 yeah it shifted n a tad but gfk qpf is 1.38 on the ukie...the model has me at 61 for a high on sunday before temps crash but doubt that with still snowcover. really 1.38? interesting, Mark (baro learned his synoptic from him) wasn't quite sure the euro was correct and thought that the euro might be a bit to far north, we'll see tomorrow way to many things that can lead to a positive feedback further north track i'd think we don't have that much room to shift back south though. I'd say maybe a 25-50 mile south shift vs a possible 100 mile north shift in regards to the ukmet,rgem stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 really 1.38? interesting, Mark (baro learned his synoptic from him) wasn't quite sure the euro was correct and thought that the euro might be a bit to far north, we'll see tomorrow way to many things that can lead to a positive feedback further north track i'd think we don't have that much room to shift back south though. I'd say maybe a 25-50 mile south shift vs a possible 100 mile north shift in regards to the ukmet,rgem stuff. Mark said that? I would love to talk weather with Askelson again someday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 really 1.38? interesting, Mark (baro learned his synoptic from him) wasn't quite sure the euro was correct and thought that the euro might be a bit to far north, we'll see tomorrow way to many things that can lead to a positive feedback further north track i'd think we don't have that much room to shift back south though. I'd say maybe a 25-50 mile south shift vs a possible 100 mile north shift in regards to the ukmet,rgem stuff. yep, 1.38 via ukie...ggem for gfk 0.86...was 0.94 on the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Mark said that? I would love to talk weather with Askelson again someday! lol ya he was looking for isentropic forecast charts and the earl barker stuff seemed messed up and then i brought up your ipv stuff and i thought you used the washington met stuff but wasn't sure. We started up 12:30 weather briefings everyday this was mark's first briefing in forever but he did awesome ( you know him he got way too technical for a briefing) but it was awesome. Alot of QG equation forcing function and stuff but great briefing he still thinks that things wont be sure until we get a decent view of how the thermo pattern sets up and how our advection schemes are but just looking at those long range ruc 18 hr forecasts it just looks like a warm shower crap fest down here. We'll see though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 yep, 1.38 via ukie...ggem for gfk 0.86...was 0.94 on the 12z run. still HUGE model differences, gfk was like .2 on the euro something has to bust. Euro was the first global to pick up on the gfk dry air battle and dropped qpf significantly 24 hours in advance of the storm and I didn't wanna believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 lol ya he was looking for isentropic forecast charts and the earl barker stuff seemed messed up and then i brought up your ipv stuff and i thought you used the washington met stuff but wasn't sure. We started up 12:30 weather briefings everyday this was mark's first briefing in forever but he did awesome ( you know him he got way too technical for a briefing) but it was awesome. Alot of QG equation forcing function and stuff but great briefing he still thinks that things wont be sure until we get a decent view of how the thermo pattern sets up and how our advection schemes are but just looking at those long range ruc 18 hr forecasts it just looks like a warm shower crap fest down here. We'll see though. U of Utah has nice DT maps. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=NH&d=DT SUNY Albany has nice DT maps as well. http://www.atmos.alb...els/gfs_dt.html http://www.atmos.alb...ex.php?d=wx_nwp U of Wash has a couple hemispheric maps at the very bottom of the page: http://www.atmos.was...u/~ovens/loops/ I just made a killer 4 panel AWIPS DT map with 1.5 PVU/pressure, 250 winds, 925 theta, SLP/Winds mainly to track moist latent heat release potential and feedback/self development. When Askelson says something I always listen, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 U of Utah has nice DT maps. http://weather.utah....fs004&r=NH&d=DT SUNY Albany has nice DT maps as well. http://www.atmos.alb...els/gfs_dt.html http://www.atmos.alb...ex.php?d=wx_nwp U of Wash has a couple hemispheric maps at the very bottom of the page: http://www.atmos.was...u/~ovens/loops/ I just made a killer 4 panel AWIPS DT map with 1.5 PVU/pressure, 250 winds, 925 theta, SLP/Winds mainly to track potential moist latent heat release potential. When Askelson says something I always listen, haha. Nice maps, but do you know of somewhere to plot certain isentropic surfaces to look at isentropic lift. Like a place for example you could put a 295k surface and winds or the montgomery stream function to look at rising air as it is lifted north. Earl Barkers site was messed up we had westerly winds and downward motion at 48 hours on his plots for the next storm. I know you do the DT stuff but I was wondering if you knew a good place to plot the different kelvin surfaces with winds plots of M. stream functions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Nice maps, but do you know of somewhere to plot certain isentropic surfaces to look at isentropic lift. Like a place for example you could put a 295k surface and winds or the montgomery stream function to look at rising air as it is lifted north. Earl Barkers site was messed up we had westerly winds and downward motion at 48 hours on his plots for the next storm. I know you do the DT stuff but I was wondering if you knew a good place to plot the different kelvin surfaces with winds plots of M. stream functions. I honestly don't use Isentropic charts much--maybe I should--but their usability breaks down fast once things are no longer adiabatic. One thing that always turned me off from isentropic charts is they are not a "reason" for why things are happening--just a way at looking at the why--if that makes sense. Similar to looking at VV maps alone--it is dependent on the dynamical equations (of course the model parametrizations, etc as well) to come to those VV fields. IPV/QG explains the why dynamically/thermodynamically. That said--I know of very few isentropic charts. They are hard to find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 0z euro qpf BWP SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.1 3.5 1001 70 86 0.04 552 552 SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.5 4.9 995 88 70 0.12 549 554 SUN 18Z 03-APR 4.2 3.4 996 88 84 0.02 546 549 MON 00Z 04-APR 3.2 -2.3 1000 92 14 0.01 543 543 MON 06Z 04-APR 1.1 -5.1 1007 95 71 0.02 538 533 DLH SUN 12Z 03-APR 0.3 -2.9 1005 91 100 0.18 549 544 SUN 18Z 03-APR 2.4 -2.3 999 84 89 0.16 547 548 MON 00Z 04-APR 1.3 0.0 997 94 94 0.05 544 547 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.5 -3.4 999 93 40 0.02 540 541 MON 12Z 04-APR 0.5 -5.7 1004 89 86 0.01 535 532 MON 18Z 04-APR 4.8 -5.7 1007 57 45 0.01 532 526 FAR SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.0 2.1 1002 72 93 0.05 550 549 SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.4 1.5 997 87 82 0.15 547 550 SUN 18Z 03-APR 5.3 0.5 996 81 75 0.02 544 547 MON 00Z 04-APR 2.9 -3.4 1001 94 25 0.02 541 540 MON 06Z 04-APR 1.1 -4.9 1008 93 84 0.03 536 529 GFK SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.3 -0.8 1004 75 97 0.02 547 544 SUN 12Z 03-APR 1.9 -2.2 999 94 98 0.09 544 545 SUN 18Z 03-APR 3.2 -2.6 999 90 56 0.05 540 542 MON 00Z 04-APR 1.5 -4.5 1004 98 78 0.10 536 533 MON 06Z 04-APR -0.8 -5.1 1011 78 93 0.05 534 526 MSP SUN 06Z 03-APR 6.2 2.2 1007 58 94 0.02 554 548 SUN 12Z 03-APR 4.7 5.5 999 78 54 0.09 555 555 SUN 18Z 03-APR 16.4 5.8 991 55 46 0.00 554 561 MON 00Z 04-APR 13.4 6.9 992 75 78 0.02 550 557 MON 06Z 04-APR 3.9 -0.8 999 92 39 0.05 545 546 MON 12Z 04-APR 2.0 -5.9 1004 86 56 0.01 540 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 6z NAM went to town with the evap. cooling induced snowfall along the warm front My take is that it'll likely be a smattering of sleet before it changes over to rain. Time of year & time of day ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 cmichweather does well with qpf from the 12z nam & rgem GFK NAM 0.99 RGEM 1.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 12 euro qpf BWP SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.1 3.6 1000 73 97 0.05 552 552 SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.2 4.5 994 90 58 0.07 549 554 SUN 18Z 03-APR 4.7 2.0 996 87 55 0.01 545 548 MON 00Z 04-APR 2.4 -3.2 1000 95 28 0.01 541 541 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.8 -5.0 1008 92 85 0.03 535 528 DLH SUN 12Z 03-APR 0.2 -2.6 1005 93 99 0.23 548 545 SUN 18Z 03-APR 1.9 -2.2 998 87 89 0.23 546 547 MON 00Z 04-APR 1.2 -0.4 997 93 67 0.06 543 545 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.4 -4.3 999 93 70 0.03 537 538 MON 12Z 04-APR 0.7 -5.5 1004 89 86 0.03 530 527 MON 18Z 04-APR 4.5 -6.3 1007 54 33 0.01 530 525 FAR SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.1 1.8 1001 70 99 0.07 550 549 SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.5 1.2 996 90 81 0.12 547 550 SUN 18Z 03-APR 4.2 -0.2 996 88 39 0.02 543 546 MON 00Z 04-APR 1.7 -4.3 1001 98 73 0.03 538 537 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.5 -4.9 1009 86 91 0.04 534 527 GFK SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.8 -1.0 1003 68 100 0.03 547 544 SUN 12Z 03-APR 1.2 -2.2 999 97 97 0.27 544 544 SUN 18Z 03-APR 1.8 -3.5 999 97 79 0.09 539 540 MON 00Z 04-APR 1.4 -4.6 1004 98 89 0.13 534 530 MON 06Z 04-APR -1.2 -5.5 1011 69 73 0.04 533 524 MSP SUN 06Z 03-APR 7.0 2.9 1006 53 98 0.01 554 549 SUN 12Z 03-APR 5.1 5.8 998 73 52 0.11 555 557 SUN 18Z 03-APR 17.2 6.2 991 57 54 0.00 552 560 MON 00Z 04-APR 11.9 5.2 993 77 70 0.03 548 554 MON 06Z 04-APR 4.0 -2.2 999 86 14 0.03 543 544 MON 12Z 04-APR 2.1 -5.6 1005 85 74 0.01 536 531 MON 18Z 04-APR 7.1 -5.3 1010 44 47 0.03 534 526 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 12 euro qpf BWP SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.1 3.6 1000 73 97 0.05 552 552 SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.2 4.5 994 90 58 0.07 549 554 SUN 18Z 03-APR 4.7 2.0 996 87 55 0.01 545 548 MON 00Z 04-APR 2.4 -3.2 1000 95 28 0.01 541 541 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.8 -5.0 1008 92 85 0.03 535 528 DLH SUN 12Z 03-APR 0.2 -2.6 1005 93 99 0.23 548 545 SUN 18Z 03-APR 1.9 -2.2 998 87 89 0.23 546 547 MON 00Z 04-APR 1.2 -0.4 997 93 67 0.06 543 545 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.4 -4.3 999 93 70 0.03 537 538 MON 12Z 04-APR 0.7 -5.5 1004 89 86 0.03 530 527 MON 18Z 04-APR 4.5 -6.3 1007 54 33 0.01 530 525 FAR SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.1 1.8 1001 70 99 0.07 550 549 SUN 12Z 03-APR 2.5 1.2 996 90 81 0.12 547 550 SUN 18Z 03-APR 4.2 -0.2 996 88 39 0.02 543 546 MON 00Z 04-APR 1.7 -4.3 1001 98 73 0.03 538 537 MON 06Z 04-APR 0.5 -4.9 1009 86 91 0.04 534 527 GFK SUN 06Z 03-APR 4.8 -1.0 1003 68 100 0.03 547 544 SUN 12Z 03-APR 1.2 -2.2 999 97 97 0.27 544 544 SUN 18Z 03-APR 1.8 -3.5 999 97 79 0.09 539 540 MON 00Z 04-APR 1.4 -4.6 1004 98 89 0.13 534 530 MON 06Z 04-APR -1.2 -5.5 1011 69 73 0.04 533 524 MSP SUN 06Z 03-APR 7.0 2.9 1006 53 98 0.01 554 549 SUN 12Z 03-APR 5.1 5.8 998 73 52 0.11 555 557 SUN 18Z 03-APR 17.2 6.2 991 57 54 0.00 552 560 MON 00Z 04-APR 11.9 5.2 993 77 70 0.03 548 554 MON 06Z 04-APR 4.0 -2.2 999 86 14 0.03 543 544 MON 12Z 04-APR 2.1 -5.6 1005 85 74 0.01 536 531 MON 18Z 04-APR 7.1 -5.3 1010 44 47 0.03 534 526 Thanks for the numbers. I still have no clue about this storm lot of things can go wrong in gfk or we could get clobbered like the 12z NMM run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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