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Winter/Flooding Storm Threat April 3-5

baroclinic_instability

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

Gonna be costly. SV has the spag plots with all the members but they just give a idea about pressure. Then ofcourse have the ensemble mean at 6hr intervals with QPF etc. FWIW the ensemble mean has about .75 in your area. The ensembles are pretty widespread with tracks from across the northern Plains/Upper MW into the lakes to aas far south and east as central/Southern Plains to Ohio Valley/E.GL-se Canada/Toronto/The NE. The mean takes it e/ene from there to near Detroit into Canada.

Thanks Harry, i will check SV out & see how costly this will be.

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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euro mean at 120...sure would like to see some of those members...anyone know where i can shell out to get those?

Thanks Harry, i will check SV out & see how costly this will be.

I suggest just going with the freebie stuff from Euro. It shows the mean with normalized standard deviations and compares it to the op run. Good enough to get an idea what the other members are doing and where the discrepancies lie. And it is free :) Paying for the Euro for purposes of tracking weather as a hobby is a bit of an expensive proposition unless you are starting your own weather company.

post-999-0-10342600-1301529187.gif

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

Prins or anyone else have Euro precip for MN and Red River Valley?

BWP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   3.1 	1.3	1006  	72  	97	0.04 	551 	546	
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.3 	1.4 	999  	87  	90	0.29 	549 	550	
SUN 18Z 03-APR   3.0	-0.4 	996  	92  	93	0.16 	546 	549	
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.6	-1.7 	998  	97  	74	0.06 	543 	544	
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.5	-4.3	1002  	98  	82	0.02 	538 	536	
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.5	-5.0	1007  	95  	94	0.04 	533 	527	
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.1	-6.1	1011  	67  	49	0.01 	534 	525 

DLH

SUN 18Z 03-APR   0.7	-3.5	1005  	90 	100	0.17 	547 	543	
MON 00Z 04-APR   0.1	-3.8	1001  	97  	99	0.30 	544 	544	
MON 06Z 04-APR  -0.2	-3.9 	999  	98  	86	0.18 	542 	543	
MON 12Z 04-APR  -0.1	-5.3 	999  	94  	90	0.05 	536 	537	
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.5	-4.9	1000  	76  	93	0.07 	530 	530	
TUE 00Z 05-APR   2.4	-4.3	1002  	78  	87	0.08 	529 	527	
TUE 06Z 05-APR  -2.3	-5.7	1004  	88  	59	0.01 	527 	524   	

FAR

SUN 06Z 03-APR   2.6 	1.0	1006  	71  	96	0.01 	549 	544	
SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.6 	0.1	1001  	92  	98	0.46 	547 	547	
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.7	-2.2 	999  	95  	94	0.33 	544 	545	
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.2	-2.9 	999  	96  	81	0.12 	541 	542	
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.7	-4.9	1004  	97  	85	0.05 	536 	533	
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.5	-5.0	1008  	92  	91	0.05 	532 	526

GFK

SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.3	-3.2	1004  	95 	100	0.09 	545 	542	
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.3	-3.2	1001  	97  	94	0.42 	541 	540	
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.1	-4.7	1003  	98  	86	0.22 	538 	536	
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.6	-4.7	1007  	98  	92	0.15 	534 	529	
MON 12Z 04-APR  -0.6	-5.4	1010  	86  	87	0.05 	533 	525	

MSP

SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.6 	1.4	1005  	91  	93	0.26 	553 	549	
SUN 18Z 03-APR   5.5 	0.8 	998  	86  	73	0.13 	553 	555	
MON 00Z 04-APR   5.0 	3.6 	994  	95  	63	0.07 	549 	554	
MON 06Z 04-APR   2.9 	0.8 	996  	98  	39	0.03 	546 	549	
MON 12Z 04-APR   1.1	-3.6 	999  	98  	24	0.01 	539 	540	
MON 18Z 04-APR   6.2	-3.4	1001  	60  	91	0.03 	534 	533	
TUE 00Z 05-APR   5.4	-4.0	1004  	57  	90	0.04 	532 	529

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baroclinic_instability

baroclinic_instability

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BWP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   3.1 	1.3	1006  	72  	97	0.04 	551 	546	
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.3 	1.4 	999  	87  	90	0.29 	549 	550	
SUN 18Z 03-APR   3.0	-0.4 	996  	92  	93	0.16 	546 	549	
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.6	-1.7 	998  	97  	74	0.06 	543 	544	
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.5	-4.3	1002  	98  	82	0.02 	538 	536	
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.5	-5.0	1007  	95  	94	0.04 	533 	527	
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.1	-6.1	1011  	67  	49	0.01 	534 	525 

DLH

SUN 18Z 03-APR   0.7	-3.5	1005  	90 	100	0.17 	547 	543	
MON 00Z 04-APR   0.1	-3.8	1001  	97  	99	0.30 	544 	544	
MON 06Z 04-APR  -0.2	-3.9 	999  	98  	86	0.18 	542 	543	
MON 12Z 04-APR  -0.1	-5.3 	999  	94  	90	0.05 	536 	537	
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.5	-4.9	1000  	76  	93	0.07 	530 	530	
TUE 00Z 05-APR   2.4	-4.3	1002  	78  	87	0.08 	529 	527	
TUE 06Z 05-APR  -2.3	-5.7	1004  	88  	59	0.01 	527 	524   	

FAR

SUN 06Z 03-APR   2.6 	1.0	1006  	71  	96	0.01 	549 	544	
SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.6 	0.1	1001  	92  	98	0.46 	547 	547	
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.7	-2.2 	999  	95  	94	0.33 	544 	545	
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.2	-2.9 	999  	96  	81	0.12 	541 	542	
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.7	-4.9	1004  	97  	85	0.05 	536 	533	
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.5	-5.0	1008  	92  	91	0.05 	532 	526

GFK

SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.3	-3.2	1004  	95 	100	0.09 	545 	542	
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.3	-3.2	1001  	97  	94	0.42 	541 	540	
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.1	-4.7	1003  	98  	86	0.22 	538 	536	
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.6	-4.7	1007  	98  	92	0.15 	534 	529	
MON 12Z 04-APR  -0.6	-5.4	1010  	86  	87	0.05 	533 	525	

MSP

SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.6 	1.4	1005  	91  	93	0.26 	553 	549	
SUN 18Z 03-APR   5.5 	0.8 	998  	86  	73	0.13 	553 	555	
MON 00Z 04-APR   5.0 	3.6 	994  	95  	63	0.07 	549 	554	
MON 06Z 04-APR   2.9 	0.8 	996  	98  	39	0.03 	546 	549	
MON 12Z 04-APR   1.1	-3.6 	999  	98  	24	0.01 	539 	540	
MON 18Z 04-APR   6.2	-3.4	1001  	60  	91	0.03 	534 	533	
TUE 00Z 05-APR   5.4	-4.0	1004  	57  	90	0.04 	532 	529

Thanks! Wow--an odd run here. The Euro is really dry over MSP and has a much stronger lead S/W passing through the Dakotas. High frequency variability at its best...or worse.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
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I hate asking for it every model run but if anyone has it could someone list the bwp,far,gfk euro qpf from the 12z whenever they get a chance.

BWP

SUN 06Z 03-APR   3.4     1.6    1005      67      98    0.03     551     547    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   2.2     1.1     998      86      87    0.25     549     550    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   3.2     0.8     995      90      95    0.08     545     549    
MON 00Z 04-APR   2.1    -1.5     996      95      59    0.06     540     543    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.4    -3.4     998      99      68    0.02     531     533    
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.4    -5.1    1003      94      91    0.07     529     527    
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.5    -6.2    1010      66      54    0.02     533     525    

DLH

SUN 12Z 03-APR  -0.3    -2.1    1008      78      72    0.01     548     541    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   0.6    -3.0    1004      94      99    0.34     548     545    
MON 00Z 04-APR   0.2    -3.4     999      98     100    0.25     544     545    
MON 06Z 04-APR  -0.3    -3.3     996      98      87    0.18     540     543    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -0.4    -4.7     995      96      82    0.04     531     534    
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.0    -5.3     998      74      91    0.12     526     528    
TUE 00Z 05-APR   1.8    -5.1    1003      77      82    0.07     528     526    

FAR

SUN 06Z 03-APR   3.3     1.0    1006      62      97    0.01     549     545    
SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.5    -1.3    1000      92      97    0.38     547     547    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.7    -1.6     997      96      99    0.12     543     546    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.5    -2.4     997      96      81    0.10     539     541    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.6    -4.4     999      98      88    0.04     530     531    
MON 12Z 04-APR   0.4    -5.0    1004      92      94    0.10     529     526    
MON 18Z 04-APR   2.6    -6.6    1010      63      38    0.02     533     524    

GFK

SUN 12Z 03-APR   1.1    -2.7    1003      98      99    0.19     544     542    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   1.4    -3.1     999      98      89    0.30     540     541    
MON 00Z 04-APR   1.1    -4.3     999      98      93    0.20     536     536    
MON 06Z 04-APR   0.7    -5.1    1001      98      87    0.18     530     529    
MON 12Z 04-APR  -0.2    -5.3    1007      84      89    0.09     531     525    

MSP

SUN 12Z 03-APR   3.4     1.5    1004      80      98    0.14     554     550    
SUN 18Z 03-APR   6.0     0.5     997      81      95    0.31     552     555    
MON 00Z 04-APR   5.6     3.4     994      97      94    0.08     547     553    
MON 06Z 04-APR   3.6     0.6     995      98      41    0.04     542     547    
MON 12Z 04-APR   1.8    -2.8     997      97      41    0.01     534     536    
MON 18Z 04-APR   5.3    -4.0    1000      66      97    0.05     529     529    
TUE 00Z 05-APR   4.8    -4.4    1005      59      84    0.08     532     528

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Harry

Harry

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Posted

My money would be on the euro and this is not saying much either. Reason being is models typically try to break down blocking patterns too quick. We have already seen this happening starting with the system now crossing the country/tomorrow/Wed as well which the models at one point tried to weaken the block enough for the system to track up this way. Same with the weekend system. The GFS has been struggling big time with this pattern too and has been wanting to warm things up much too quickly via the breaking down of the blocking. I suspect the MJO had a bit to do with this as it has briefly come out of the circle of death and gained a little momentum but that has ceased again and thus headed back to the circle of death as i like to call it. Whenever that happens models tend to go belly up for whatever reason.

Not saying their wont be a storm but i would not get too caught up in the details such as track/rn vs sn etc just yet. I suspect like many ( nearly all ) systems we are not even close to seeing the final track of this thing which will shift and probably by alot of miles. Keep in mind it is starting to look like there is really nothing to push and or to shake things up with the pattern from the pacific into N.America etc which we can somewhat thank the MJO crapping back out for. At this moment in time ( for several months except briefly ) the way it is progressing is by following the cold signals. Right now it is in phase 5 where it looks to go into that circle of death. In winter ( say Dec-Jan ) that typically results in westcoast trough with ridge in the east while at THIS point in the year it is a cold/trough signal in the midwest/GL/ne. As we move along so do the phase numbers and at this moment in time some modeling has it poking back out into phase 7 which by then will be a cold signal and thus suggests storms tracking farther s/e. The euro weeklies etc have been advertising the colder pattern holding on as well through most of April. That does not bode well for systems tracking from the Rockies to the upper MW/N.Plains/N.GL. The weeklies were the first to hit on the current cold we have as well but still they are not the end all either. Point is other then the GFS/CMC there is not much else to suggest that kind of pattern change to bring the storm track etc those models are suggesting. Ofcourse with weaker signals things can change in a hurry as we saw late last Feb into March last year and despite the -NAO/-AO holding on ( as it had all winter ) things warmed up quickly and we were torching by this point. My belief is the -AO helped to drain all the cold air and thus we lacked a decent cold air source by the time March rolled around and thus things moderated quickly. Why too people need not get caught up in a -NAO/-AO equals cold and +NAO/+AO or whatever always equals warm because it just does not work like that. When the AO is + that means we have a cold air source to work with as the PV tends to hang up north which allows the cold to build and a little blocking or say epo ridge can be enough to send it our way and pretty cold at that ( it is a fresh supply ) as we are currently seeing.

Truthfully this is a explosive pattern if we can ever get the right ingredients to come together and thus some decent warmth/moisture from a now above normal GOM to clash with some of that decent cold to the north. March 93 had this with a GOM that had gotten pretty warm ( above normal ) and we still had a decent supply of cold to the north which decided to pay a visit and well you know the rest of that story. The QBO etc is nearly the same as well. Thus a few reasons to watch this thing ( and or this period over the next few weeks ) either way. This basically as good as it is ever gonna get for big bomb potential.

Hopefully i made that easy to understand for all as well. Trying to not get too technical as i know we have a number of people who don't understand the terms etc. If i did botch anything feel free to mention it as i have done it before when i try to not be too technical.

In short don't get too caught up in modeling. They have been struggling a bit lately especially beyond 72-96+hrs and beyond.

Amazing how quick things can change but as mentioned with the models struggling it will be possible to see quick changes.

You all ready for this? :lol:

I was doing some peaking around and before i even begin i will say not to get too excited yet.

In short the models are busting BIG TIME with the MJO progression to start with. It is out of the circle of death and it just crossed into phase 6 and more importantly ( remember what i said about keeping excitement in check ) the models have it making it to phase 8. Both phase 6 and 8 are the warmer signals. Phase 7 cold which yeah i find odd too but thats what the MJO climo for this time of year says. Anyways none of them have a strong blocking ( -NAO ) signature and right on time the NAO has begun to rise. That increases the odd's of our system being able to stay on a more ne/ene track vs getting shunted east/ese as it approaches the GL/this region. Thus we could see the severe threat make it's way farther north into the S.Lakes anyways. Only way the S.Lakes ( S.WI/S.MI etc ) sees any snow is if we get something like the 18z GFS shows.

Again just keep in mind of how quick things can change because well in short THE MODELS are total suckage right now.

If we can make phase 8 then the chances are good we go into a warmer regime. How long that lasts will depend on what happens farther out with the MJO etc.

Here is the climo for MJO Phase in April..

Here is temps.

combined_image.png

Precip. Kinda matches what the models are showing with this next big system. Thus see phase 6.

combined_image.png

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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Posted

A month ago this may have been a nice front-end thump type system. However, the magnitude of the antecedent "arctic" (use that word loosely) airmass leaves a lot to be desired. 6z NAM/GFS BUFKIT have YYZ starting as a bit of snow (~1"), but with sfc temps around 33-33.5. Considering these profiles tend to a have a slightly cold bias, it's not exactly a slam dunk.

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prinsburg_wx

prinsburg_wx

Posted
Posted

Unless the models are playing an April Fools joke on us with the 0z/06z runs this storm is going down the crapper as far as significant snows are concerned unless you live in far n MN or ND. The threat of heavy precip around here is becoming less likely and thats good news with the current flooding situation.

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