Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 He He heeee... here's what I suggest you do. It's [most likely] the last winter deal of this last winter season, now attempting to phoenix. So, roll the dice and throw all cred into a UKMENT/GFS/JMA blend and disregard all guidance that doesn't biblically impact from interior VA to D.E.M. It's party time! Shot hour! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 12Z GFS a fantastic run for the snow weenies here in the Berks. GFS suggests a nice moderate snowfall for Thursday night and Friday morning before the main show comes in Friday night and Saturday morning with a wind whipped blue snow bomb. A track just inside the BM or over CC is ideal for this area to be right in the comma head deformation zone. Best case scenario for this area would be a 3-6 or 4-8 deal with storm #1 and a slow moving April version of the 1/12/11 event for storm #2. I'm glad my snow blower's still sitting in the driveway...... Bit warmer today. 37.9/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 He He heeee... here's what I suggest you do. It's [most likely] the last winter deal of this last winter season, now attempting to phoenix. So, roll the dice and throw all cred into a UKMENT/GFS/JMA blend and disregard all guidance that doesn't biblically impact from interior VA to D.E.M. It's party time! The JMA cuts to Watertown...no thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The JMA cuts to Watertown...no thanks. That's why I said "blend" - lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 JMA at 72 looks uber amped: Does that have the 108 hour ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 No..but that seems like a low prob. If anything it might start as rain and go to snow Still enough to close the CT schools for three days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The Canadian ensembles look like they go across or perhaps just east of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The Canadian ensembles look like they go across or perhaps just east of the Cape. Scott, Do you have the euro ensembles yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 In the interest of whetting a weenie ... just noticed that I could use "wet" or "whet" and still say the same thing... anyway, anyone have QPF or any other fun from the 12z UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I want to see trees down, decks smashed and basketball hoops bent over from the weight of the snow. That would be a big hit AIT rain is way more concerning then a miss. Just like yesterday, I still think this will feature rain and snow IMBY. The question is which will be the main player. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Scott, Do you have the euro ensembles yet? Looks similar to the op. The low goes just se of the BM and slowly intensifies as it moves near Nova Scotia. Not bad of a solution, overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks similar to the op. The low goes just se of the BM and slowly intensifies as it moves near Nova Scotia. Not bad of a solution, overall. Eh....I'm disheartened by the fact that a relatively tame soloution apparently entails precip type issues and a stronger soloution would get warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Eh....I'm disheartened by the fact that a relatively tame soloution apparently entails precip type issues and a stronger soloution would get warmer. Euro is warm, huge shocker right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Eh....I'm disheartened by the fact that a relatively tame soloution apparently entails precip type issues and a stronger soloution would get warmer. Reasonable given what the gfs also shows. Bigger and wetter or smaller and sloppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Eh....I'm disheartened by the fact that a relatively tame soloution apparently entails precip type issues and a stronger soloution would get warmer. I wouldn't worry about any of that quite yet. Euro was a bit bizarre in how it handle one of the waves and its associated WAA....it just kind of kept warming the MLs in between the systems. It had not done this in any previous run and other guidance didn't do it. If we see a pretty strong system near the BM, you can be pretty confident the MLs won't be a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Euro is warm, huge shocker right there. Yea, but if the goal is to truely view this objectively, then one could alter that sarcastic jab into "too warm in April on the cp, huge shocker right there". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I wouldn't worry about any of that quite yet. Euro was a bit bizarre in how it handle one of the waves and its associated WAA....it just kind of kept warming the MLs in between the systems. It had not done this in any previous run and other guidance didn't do it. If we see a pretty strong system near the BM, you can be pretty confident the MLs won't be a problem. Yep Yea, but if the goal is to truely view this objectively, then one could alter that sarcastic jab into "too warm in April on the cp, huge shocker right there". see above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I wouldn't worry about any of that quite yet. Euro was a bit bizarre in how it handle one of the waves and its associated WAA....it just kind of kept warming the MLs in between the systems. It had not done this in any previous run and other guidance didn't do it. If we see a pretty strong system near the BM, you can be pretty confident the MLs won't be a problem. Ok...thx. I ordinarily wouldn't have put so much stock in that, but the way Scooter articulated his thoughts was alarming in that he indicated that that soloution was marginal, and a stronger soloution would be warmer. Not po pooing anything, but rather trying to keep it real; I feel better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Looks similar to the op. The low goes just se of the BM and slowly intensifies as it moves near Nova Scotia. Not bad of a solution, overall. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yep see above Again, that is my defualt thinking, as well.....but Scooter startled me and I usually defer to him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ok...thx. I ordinarily wouldn't have put so much stock in that, but the way Scooter articulated his thoughts was alarming in that he indicated that that soloution was marginal, and a stronger soloution would be warmer. Not po pooing anything, but rather trying to keep it real; I feel better now. I was actually just talking to him on the phone while out away from my comp a while ago...and we discussed the Euro solution in how it had marginal 850 temps at first but notice when the CCB backs into E MA and becomes more intense, they crash back below zero. Good lift would take care of it...and that was not even taking into account that we thought it was strange that it kept warming the 850s before that. We'll see, obviously it will become a concern if we keep seeing that exact problem on future guidance, but as of now, I wouldn't worry about it until there is a reason to worry about it....on the flip side, no reason to excited about big snow until there is a great reason to get excited. W'ere just starting to enter the range where models should begin converging more rapidly....but for the data assimilation fetishes, the strongest s/w doesn't even come ashore until about 12z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Anyone else find it ironic that after what we went through last March, we are now under a Red Flag warning....different year. Yet both have been essentially snowless for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Anyone else find it ironic that after what we went through last March, we are now under a Red Flag warning....different year. I'm surprised they included New London County and the Westerly area given how wet the ground still is from last year's flooding! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'm surprised they included New London County and the Westerly area given how wet the ground still is from last year's flooding! SW RI should be granted immunity from red flags!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I wish I could lock in the 12z GFS... love that track for the interior though. Blue snow bomb for the Berkshires, Greens, Whites, and Maine mountains. Hopefully that is what happens given the number of people who have been posting recently that snow in their backyards does nothing this time of year and they want to keep it in ski country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Again, that is my defualt thinking, as well.....but Scooter startled me and I usually defer to him Well we are at there mercy with limited access, just intuitively with antecedent conditions in the area and ECanada with HP in Quebec I would assume a tightly wound BM system this time of year with a climo cold ocean would yield a classic blue bomb. What I mean't and it was not sarcastic was the Euro has run warm with every coastal so it is no shocker. I do not expect things will clarify until Wed but the speculation is fun. Sure as hell is not a spring week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'm surprised they included New London County and the Westerly area given how wet the ground still is from last year's flooding! My thread is full of this but mockery had it's payback, I still have a piece of my snowless winter left in the shade. Good thing we had our massive fire pit Saturday night, but realistically the ground is pretty wet for red flag stuff in ECT anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 GYX's AFD certainly ran the gauntlet of all the possibilties for Fri-Sat with even a ensemble member having a 953 mb low around Portland.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Anyone else find it ironic that after what we went through last March, we are now under a Red Flag warning....different year. Yet both have been essentially snowless for me. Funny you mentioned this ... I wasn't thinking "ironic" so much earlier, as just a case in point that this is the 4th relative snow drought March in a row, and there isn't really a whole heck of a lot of similarity there between the respective occurrences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.