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Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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Yes, the only thing I really take from the UKMET is that:

1) The past 3 runs have seen a substantial eastward shift

2) The past 5 runs have all shown a bomb somewhere in the eastern US on Fri, though with different tracks. Though the UKMET tends to overdo bombogenesis, that type of consistency is intriguing.

Classic Ukie.

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Yes, the only thing I really take from the UKMET is that:

1) The past 3 runs have seen a substantial eastward shift

2) The past 5 runs have all shown a bomb somewhere in the eastern US on Fri, though with different tracks. Though the UKMET tends to overdo bombogenesis, that type of consistency is intriguing.

I could see the bombogenesis potential if we can have one nice consolidated s/w. But of course, we risk a massive rainstorm if that happens. It's a fine line here.

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We've definitely seen a convergence somewhat toward a large system for that main wave somewhere along the EC...which is good...however the spread certainly remains large enough that we can easily rain or still possibly see the perfect storm of wave interference to cause a disorganized whiff.

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