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Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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What is Bostons biggest April snowfall? I was suprised to see that NYC was only 10.2"

They had 25.4" on Mar 31-Apr 1, 1997...22.4" of that fell after midnight on April 1st, so technically for April that is the biggest snow.

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I am surprised you guys in ME haven't hit 100" on the season yet...

Jut out of curiosity, I looked at the NOWData on the GYX site and Eustis, near Sugarloaf is at 149" and nearby Rangely is at 166". Of course those are both in the mountains.

I used to live near Eustis actually when I worked at Sugarloaf. Definitely a snowy area over there....

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GYX is out with this Haz statement......

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE EAST COAST ON

FRIDAY...BRINGING MOSTLY SNOW TO NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. MODERATE TO

HEAVY ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN

MAINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

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22.4". On 4/1/97. ST 25.4" in that one, at Logan.

Thanks Scooter, I need to look up top 5, it seems at least on the coastal plain that history and climo maybe a more uselful tool than mid winter, I wonder how much the nws offices will be using climo in there forecasts for this particular storm closer to the coast.

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Welp, the JMA has arrived at it has gone SE over previous runs and pretty much sits pegged on the consensus position at 84 hours.

With the exception of the NAM this is all of them at this point.

Every run going forward over the next 3 or 4 cycles will be interesting as more and more dynamics start punching inland out west.

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Jut out of curiosity, I looked at the NOWData on the GYX site and Eustis, near Sugarloaf is at 149" and nearby Rangely is at 166". Of course those are both in the mountains.

I used to live near Eustis actually when I worked at Sugarloaf. Definitely a snowy area over there....

Thats right, The foothills and mountains should be over the 100" mark, Its us flatlanders that are close......

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There was a few storms we tainted on, And a few we whiffed on, I am at 91.25" for the season, So its acheivable, We shall see, I am more optimistic today but will wait out a few more runs before i get all giddy..

I think you're golden... but I hear ya on getting giddy too early. Just my gut but there's pretty good consensus that eastern New England gets hit pretty hard... I really, really doubt this gets any further west than today's ECM and UKMET. Each model run up to now there's been one or two models (or ensemble members) that have a far westward solution like up the Hudson Valley... but now not even the wrapped up ensemble members have that sort of track. Everything has definitely been pushed solidly eastward over the past 24-48 hours of model runs and I don't see what that shouldn't continue over the next 24-48 hours.

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Welp, the JMA has arrived at it has gone SE over previous runs and pretty much sits pegged on the consensus position at 84 hours.

With the exception of the NAM this is all of them at this point.

Every run going forward over the next 3 or 4 cycles will be interesting as more and more dynamics start punching inland out west.

Tip, do you expect the Nam to come west ( actually have a storm) 18z or 00z with this new data coming in off the west coast? Also, I remember back to 1/12 when you said that the Nam will nail this one cause its a more dynamic and higher res

model. Why wouldn't the Nam be good here And the lower Res models be good? What's different. Between this storm and 1/12 where the Nam nailed it and the globals and gfs sucked?

No golf til may..locked

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Jut out of curiosity, I looked at the NOWData on the GYX site and Eustis, near Sugarloaf is at 149" and nearby Rangely is at 166". Of course those are both in the mountains.

I used to live near Eustis actually when I worked at Sugarloaf. Definitely a snowy area over there....

Yeah that's more in line with what's up this way... those areas must also get some snow on NW-flow or something because that's a 70" difference between Dryslot and Rangely. That can't all be synoptic differences.

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Yeah that's more in line with what's up this way... those areas must also get some snow on NW-flow or something because that's a 70" difference between Dryslot and Rangely. That can't all be synoptic differences.

They do, I ride that area a lot and they have a lot of upslope snowshowers as you guys do as well..

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Can any met give any insight on the maximum potential this storm has to deliver to Southern New England?

no offense, but spend some time reading the thread before you ask. there is a ton of info in this thread that would answer that question.

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man, I really dont think anywhere SE of BOS-BDL-DXR hs much of a chance with VERY warm BL temps...maybe the Litchfield hills/Berks and northern Worcester hills do well (6+) but i really cannot see coastal areas seriously in this discussion regardless of what the gfs says.

That will all depend on where the storm tracks.

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