Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April

[powderfreak]

If this all plays out to what it appears it may be barring a major travisty in the next few runs, A lot of folks will crack the century mark on yearly totals..

I'm hoping to crack 150" here... and if the ski resort gets any snow at all out of this we'll crack the century mark on yearly totals on the ground.

[stormtracker]

Catch a flight up to Portland. Crash with the Ekster.

Sure, but

1) Timing..is that during the height..or will it be...with the models keep moving the timing around..eh

2) Pretty good chance some airports will be shut anyway

Ugh..why can't you all schedule this say 3 am Saturday morning.

[TalcottWx]

Still, I wonder if I can fly to PWM on Friday after work and get to somewhere decent?

If you fly to PWM head N right up 302... about an hour of driving on that and you will be golden. Sunday river and shawnee peak are right up here. Its called the lake region area and its the western maine interior.

[Organizing Low]

I'm guessing its the NW corner of New England that doesn't?

all of VT sees at least 0.7 and only the NW corner sees less than 1

i get about 0.3 but at this time of year, that will result in no real accumulation.

[tamarack]

I'm guessing its the NW corner of New England that doesn't?

Just being mean....

Think of last year, when you got buried in late March while NNE locations to the east went hungry.

GFS clown map seemed a bit odd, with ORH and HUL at 15" and many places in between getting half that. 12z run also has a good hit early next week, though that's still at fantasy range.

[weatherMA]

Joe Joyce threw this out in his blog when mentioning the euro from last night. Time for the public to freak out.

Potential for a foot of snow inland away from the coast.

[dryslot]

I'm hoping to crack 150" here... and if the ski resort gets any snow at all out of this we'll crack the century mark on yearly totals on the ground.

That is a forgone conclussion for you guys, But for some of us coastal plain folk, It will make for a decent winter, And my snowpack will be whatever we get.........lol

[powderfreak]

And Tim Kelley was mentioning it back on MARCH 20! I suggested he was smoking something...

Tim has been dead on, IMO, since late February. At Stowe he called our early March dump (27-28") like a week out, and also the one that came 72 hours later and dumped 10".

Then again, he's a skier and snow lover, so he'll usually be a bit more "pro-snow" than some other on-air mets.

[dryslot]

If you fly to PWM head N right up 302... about an hour of driving on that and you will be golden. Sunday river and shawnee peak are right up here. Its called the lake region area and its the western maine interior.

Foothills will be the place to be..

[Arnold214]

Catch a flight up to Portland. Crash with the Ekster.

Air tran has direct flights from BWI to PWM for pretty cheap. In fact, I think that's the way I'm getting to the conf.

[CoastalWx]

Foothills will be the place to be..

Bridgton will somehow win again, like they always do.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Average model error at 3 days I think was around 75-100 miles from some paper I just read. Given the track, temps and other parameters being so tight for a lot of you/us....it will be a thrilling next 48 model hourszz

My choices are rain. Colder heavier rain or a dryslot. Be fun watching regardless. I'd almost cleaned the house windows too, will be a salty mess by sunday

[moneypitmike]

Joe Joyce threw this out in his blog when mentioning the euro from last night. Time for the public to freak out.

Potential for a foot of snow inland away from the coast.

Redundant, eh?

36.5/17. If it does snow, at least we don't have to worry about clearing it too much. The April sun will make quick work even with cool temps. Why tire oneself out?

[dryslot]

Bridgton will somehow win again, like they always do.

Yes, That whole area thru KRUM will score big..

[DomNH]

Holy sh*t. There's my analysis.

[powderfreak]

That is a forgone conclussion for you guys, But for some of us coastal plain folk, It will make for a decent winter, And my snowpack will be whatever we get.........lol

I am surprised you guys in ME haven't hit 100" on the season yet... you guys had the same snow cover as us at its maximum (MaineJayHawk posted a pic once of his backyard that was absolutely buried, looked like 3-4 feet) and you guys had more snow on the ground than BTV all winter, yet BTV is up to 127.1" on the season. Guess its all that fluffy, meso-scale snowfall that adds the seasonal total but doesn't add up in terms of snowpack?

Yeah, my feelings on this one are that its an eastern New England deal... over here in Vermont I think we get fringed.

I'd definitely be feeling pretty confident if I lived from Tolland-ORH-Dryslot corridor. For the western/interior areas like Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires, Greens... it'll be a battle with the SNE coastal plain folks, lol. If they get significant snow, we won't get much of anything... if its raining in the SNE coastal plain, snows a coming.

[Typhoon Tip]

Ahhhh.... I knew he had to post about it!

We need the western data to come in still, though, correct?

Yeah, the full relay is always better - interesting that if you look at the 12z initializations the jet was just starting to come in and almost instantly we have this sudden convergence - that's not an accident or chance imo.

[weatherMA]

This is looking so good right now it makes me nervous. I hope this doesn't trend too far west tonight at 00z, with the tv mets starting to outline snow possibilities. I want the public to be mad because it snowed, not because the mets hyped the storm too much and it rained.

Euro ensembles should be interesting.

[CoastalWx]

Average model error at 3 days I think was around 75-100 miles from some paper I just read. Given the track, temps and other parameters being so tight for a lot of you/us....it will be a thrilling next 48 model hourszz

My choices are rain. Colder heavier rain or a dryslot. Be fun watching regardless. I'd almost cleaned the house windows too, will be a salty mess by sunday

Even the euro would have you end as snow.

[powderfreak]

Foothills will be the place to be..

Rumford or Farmington would be my picks... Farmington always seems to get crushed on a deep easterly fetch into the foothills.

[H2Otown_WX]

This is looking so good right now it makes me nervous. I hope this doesn't trend too far west tonight at 00z, with the tv mets starting to outline snow possibilities. I want the public to be mad because it snowed, not because the mets hyped the storm too much and it rained.

Euro ensembles should be interesting.

That's the best, when the general public doesn't even see it coming.

[tamarack]

Foothills will be the place to be..

3-4 storms this year have been forecast that way. hasn't happened yet, but it's never too late!

I am surprised you guys in ME haven't hit 100" on the season yet... you guys had the same snow cover as us at its maximum (MaineJayHawk posted a pic once of his backyard that was absolutely buried, looked like 3-4 feet) and you guys had more snow on the ground than BTV all winter, yet BTV is up to 127.1" on the season. Guess its all that fluffy, meso-scale snowfall that adds the seasonal total but doesn't add up in terms of snowpack?

Had some pretty dense stuff come down, with most storms running ratios 9-10 to 1. What really has kept my snowpack safe was the 1.5" LE/2.0" accum of IP/ZR on 3/7. Even the near-60 temp midmonth could only take 2-3 inches, and that mainly by settling the under-layer. I think my current 16" (might've lost an inch today with temp up to 40) would carry a trotting moose, at least early in the day.

[DomNH]

This is looking so good right now it makes me nervous. I hope this doesn't trend too far west tonight at 00z, with the tv mets starting to outline snow possibilities. I want the public to be mad because it snowed, not because the mets hyped the storm too much and it rained.

Euro ensembles should be interesting.

A snowstorm and Opening Day...what is more perfect?

[Mr Torchey]

What is Bostons biggest April snowfall? I was suprised to see that NYC was only 10.2"

[wxsniss]

Also, antecedent conditions are actually better vs 97.

This is true, and I was thinking just about that very same aspect at lunch...

In 1997, the high temperature 4 days before the storm was 58F up at the University (UML). 3 days prior, 61. 2 days prior, 64F. It was a Saturday, with light tepid breezes in hot March 30th sun as I ambled across the bridge in route to Fox Tower for brunch. Across all those days the models were slowly converging on a -3 or -4SD closure ideally positioned S-SE of LI, and I really recall thinking how oblivious the campus was as to what would undoubtedly unfold. Girls, the 20-year old nubile kind, were laying out on blankets in swim suits, where they untie the back part? Frizbies zoomed around over head. Dorm room windows were all up with curtains gently flitting out of them. It was just as epically gorgeous out as the implication was on those weather charts.

The morning before the storm day, the high was in the low 40s - and I think it was at midnight. That day I recall big huge rain drops falling sparsely - it was an eerie vibe kind of. They were like giant jungle drop thunderstorm wads of water that fell like one ever square meter much of the morning. Light rain, but heavy if one pelted you. The rain went normal looking, steady, and flipped to snow late in that afternoon, and then of course over night all hell broke loose. We only received 18" - only, ha - up at the college. My buddy in Wayland Mass had almost double that. He phoned me the next morning to tell me that there was like 8 or 9 straight hours of occasional lightning with very loud booming thunder, with whiteout conditions. Chokingly, suffogatingly heavy snow.

This time, we are not going to get that. However, we are not as warm. We won't see anything close to 60F, and with the nights being below freezing regionally, it's a better bet that the soil is still well enough prepped for accumulation.

March 30, 1997 KBOS:

Max 63 F

Min 45 F

DPs 40s

While antecedent conditions are better, I'm concerned with timing... in 97 the CCB and bulk qpf occurred after sunset... may not matter if it's ballistic outside, hard to say.

Models have trended to an earlier timeframe from yesterday, moving the heaviest qpf from Fri night - Sat am to daytime Friday, but we'll see how things settle as we approach yaakov's 72hr model hurdle #1.

[Clinch Leatherwood]

Yeah, the full relay is always better - interesting that if you look at the 12z initializations the jet was just starting to come in and almost instantly we have this sudden convergence - that's not an accident or chance imo.

I made the mistake of reading one of the papers I'd found on data ass. from the pac. If I understood correctly it's a compounded effect so it's actually more pronounced in subsequent runs such as tonight's. Ie will probably see more convergence this evening/trend towards the final solution.

Arguably a key piece of energy isn't even on continent for 36-42 more hours....the piece that loads into the back of the trough at 48/60.

Besides this year a much greater impact has been realized when the key s/w clears the Rockies moreso than the coast

[powderfreak]

I find it interesting how BTV has already gone with 80-90% POPs across the board for snow on Friday and Friday night... while down in SNE where precipitation is much more likely, BOX has 60-70% POPs.

Given the out-to-sea chances or the chance for this to be just an eastern New England storm, I find 90% chance of snow a bit high this far out.

Thursday Night: A chance of snow, mainly after 5am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 17. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Friday: Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 27. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Friday Night: Snow. Low around 16. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[weatherMA]

That's the best, when the general public doesn't even see it coming.

Yeah, I'd almost rather it be downplayed right now for this reason.

A snowstorm and Opening Day...what is more perfect?

Yes.

Could be interesting in NYC for the yankees opener. The gfs gets precip in by 00z to 3z there, but its rain/mix before the flip to snow later that night.

[powderfreak]

What is Bostons biggest April snowfall? I was suprised to see that NYC was only 10.2"

I would have to imagine April 1997 lol

[dryslot]

I am surprised you guys in ME haven't hit 100" on the season yet... you guys had the same snow cover as us at its maximum (MaineJayHawk posted a pic once of his backyard that was absolutely buried, looked like 3-4 feet) and you guys had more snow on the ground than BTV all winter, yet BTV is up to 127.1" on the season. Guess its all that fluffy, meso-scale snowfall that adds the seasonal total but doesn't add up in terms of snowpack?

Yeah, my feelings on this one are that its an eastern New England deal... over here in Vermont I think we get fringed.

I'd definitely be feeling pretty confident if I lived from Tolland-ORH-Dryslot corridor. For the western/interior areas like Catskills, Taconics, Berkshires, Greens... it'll be a battle with the SNE coastal plain folks, lol. If they get significant snow, we won't get much of anything... if its raining in the SNE coastal plain, snows a coming.

There was a few storms we tainted on, And a few we whiffed on, I am at 91.25" for the season, So its acheivable, We shall see, I am more optimistic today but will wait out a few more runs before i get all giddy..