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Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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I would start mentioning the possibility of significant snow here...even if we change to rain (starting to look less likely). I wouldn't throw around huge amounts to the public yet, but I would at least mention the possibility of plowable snow.

Yeah I agree. No need to throw out 8-16" totals or something...not sure the public would even believe it...it is 4/1 after all. Just say that snow and rain is likely with possibility of 6+ where it stays all snow, most likely in the interior. That's what I'd say at least.

Do you have the 12z euro start time? I know the gfs was around 9z or so.

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Yeah I agree. No need to throw out 8-16" totals or something...not sure the public would even believe it...it is 4/1 after all. Just snow and rain likely with possibility of 6+ where it stays all snow more likely in the interior. That's what I'd say at least.

Do you have the 12z euro start time? I know the gfs was around 9z or so.

Euro is probably similar in start time. No 3 hour increments, but between 06z and 12z we get about 0.40" of qpf and it looks like it would be close to a 09z start time...perhaps an hour earlier.

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Danielle Niles at NECN:

But that's all going to change late in the week- big time. A complex area of low pressure will consolidate over the southeast late Thursday then track up the east coast on Friday. Yes, I am well aware of the date, but it's no joke! We're talking about a late season Nor'easter with the potential for significant snowfall over parts of New England. As usual, track means everything- if the low hugs the shore, western and northern New England will pick up the heaviest snowfall with a quick change to rain south and east. If the low stays offshore the rain/snow line will be closer to the coast.

Don't try and twist my arm for an accumulation forecast this far out- there is NO way to guess correctly. I will say this- there is plenty of Atlantic moisture available to be tapped and the polar high over southern Canada is in a perfect position to supply cold air. As long as everything comes together in time, someone is going to get a lot of snow.

In any event, we'll clear things out for the weekend but don't expect a warm up any time soon- we're stuck in this winter like pattern for the foreseeable future.

(from 11:30 or so this morning)

She is a member of the RevKev fan club (100" or bust!)

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Can a 72-96 hour prog be a perfect prog? Please? This is like my dream april fetish storm.

Shove this 30 miles east, and I'm ecstatic..lol. I have to keep reminding myself we probably have 48 hrs of model wiggles and oscillations that will be vital for some of the area..esp near the coast. I think I would feel optimistic for the Kev and Will corridor out to God's country and up into your hood, but obviously the details are to be determined.

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9z is 5am now...so if it starts 3-4am that's perfect. 3" down my daylight without sun angle then the majority of the storm during the morning so people can be up to enjoy it.

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves though. Long way to go.

It will be key to get it to start overnight Thursday ..Don't want a start later than dawn for accumulation purposes

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