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Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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That's cold, bro. Pure evil.

Of course, he doesn't care if it snows on his sand spit or not, so it's all good.

Haha there's a whole list of posters that before this storm came up, have been saying that snow in their front yards does them absolutely no good this time of year...keep it in ski country and let SNE enjoy spring, etc. Now all the sudden everyone is finding ways for feet of snow to fall in their yards.

Funny how that happens.

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The scene on Saturday all across New England, particularly near Mt Tolland.

DSC_0504.JPG

What ... 2" of snow over a rusted out neglected public play-ground facilitiy where crack dealers hang around and crime is only temporarly held in check because the weather is a minor inconvenience???

J/K

Btw, the 12z GGEM has a more compact system that pretty much whiffs SE. Just FYI

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Kevs not here so I should take the reigns and spread the warnings.

Clean out and fill your bath tubs with water. Make sure your chimneys are clean. If you don't have a chimney please build one or consider buying a three megawatt generator. Buy plenty of canned goods particularly beefarino which can be used in a pinch to feed your horses. Secure your basketball hoops by anchoring them to your foot. In cases like this I run a string from my front door to the nearest 7-11 in case I need supplies.

Buy at least three forms of backup communication. 2 way radios, a sat phone and some type of signaling device like a flare gun. Fill your gas tank and consider filling your back seat and trunk with sand in case you get stuck. Hire a team of laborers to shovel your roof as the snow falls. If this is not possible you may want to cut holes in your roof to reduce the accumulation of snow.

This is a life threatening situation.

Nice looking solutions. Let's hope post full typhoon tip sample nothing changes tonight. As my own observations, the jconsor paper and other papers have previously noted the 72 hr barrier tends to be a big one for accuracy with sparse data with the next coming 36-42.

Let's make it through the first one tonight.

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Flag?

I'm not invested in this at all and wouldn't be until inside of 24h. I give up on the models. That said looking at the 12z so far we have the atrocious gfs with a perfect hit, the slightly less terrible Uk way west again, the ggem a miss, the nam mostly a miss and the gfs ensembles east.

IMO very iffy situation. The nam got RIPPED here prior to the last event about being se and it turned out to be pretty good. If the euro goes se huge flag IMO

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I'm not invested in this at all and wouldn't be until inside of 24h. I give up on the models. That said looking at the 12z so far we have the atrocious gfs with a perfect hit, the slightly less terrible Uk way west again, the ggem a miss, the nam mostly a miss and the gfs ensembles east.

IMO very iffy situation. The nam got RIPPED here prior to the last event about being se and it turned out to be pretty good. If the euro goes se huge flag IMO

Agree..

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It looks weird on the ensembles. In comparing the 500 height progs, this trough is actually sharper and would argue for a low somewhat west of the 00z run, yet it's east on the 12z run. If I had to guess, they might be a little too far east, but we are still in that shaky period where models shift around.

Canadian is back nw of 00z.

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There are three GEFS members that make the third s/w dominant, and thus #2 is kicked eastward (somewhat like the NAM). So that will certainly skew the mean.

Looking at the spread, at hr78 there are two maxes: one in the central MS river valley, and the other off the NC coast. At first glance it might look like it's associated with the phase of the longwave but actually it's with the amplitude of s/w3 and s/w2 within the l/w.

The more energy focused in #2 the better.

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There are three GEFS members that make the third s/w dominant, and thus #2 is kicked eastward (somewhat like the NAM). So that will certainly skew the mean.

Looking at the spread, at hr78 there are two maxes: one in the central MS river valley, and the other off the NC coast. At first glance it might look like it's associated with the phase of the longwave but actually it's with the amplitude of s/w3 and s/w2 within the l/w.

The more energy focused in #2 the better.

I actually thought it looked better at 500 so a few members might be skewing it. I was just a little surprised.

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