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Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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Agreed, suppression hasn't been my worry with this one...I think we'd have to get a perfect storm of screwed up s/w interference to fail to get latitude gain in this system. My bigger worry is a phased bomb up the Hudson Valley or something.

Couple of things, oh ****e, memories of the VMAX that screwed us last year, model waffling run to run, hope you guys are right in your assessment confluence is lifting out, runs on Sat had no heavy winds today.

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At least it is something to watch...

Soon it will just be some mundane rain and 49F under overcast...

Ugggh.

I know some people just want to get on with Spring, but I am one of those who loves to see snow in April, and even May. It just says so much about the range of weather that can be experienced in the Northeast.

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As usual,

Too early to say, could be a phased bomb into the Hudson Valley, unphased POS slides underneath us, CC canal megabomb nail interior folks or Multiple storms with snow to the coast round one, KU interior. I like the second scenario.

I'm going w the idea that the majority of the region, including the cp, sees one more significant event.

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Confluence isn't the issue here, as the E. Canada trough is forecast to lift out rapidly late this week. If the Fri storm is out to sea, it would be because the shortwaves can't consolidate, not because of confluence.

Also, the NAO is forecast to rise to around neutral by Fri.

...

Agreed ....

Folks, the only thing stopping 120 hours from being a blizzard is the wetness of the snow keeping visibility slightly elevated... Massive hit for the interior, dynamically assisted -

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GFS ensembles are still messing around with the idea of a lead wave (not the same one that was shown in previous days that is now off the coast 500 mi E of VA/DE)...but it definitely looks a bit more focused toward the main show...and it has it over the BM at 120h which is noticeably slower than the OP run which has it in the Gulf of Maine by 120h.

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Yes probably. Though you might not have to go that far to see a decent storm. W MD or interior PA could still see a pretty good system.

What about for here, Will? I'm seeing a few of our local forecasts mention a chance of snow and wind Friday into Saturday.

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12Z GFS a fantastic run for the snow weenies here in the Berks. GFS suggests a nice moderate snowfall for Thursday night and Friday morning before the main show comes in Friday night and Saturday morning with a wind whipped blue snow bomb. A track just inside the BM or over CC is ideal for this area to be right in the comma head deformation zone.

Best case scenario for this area would be a 3-6 or 4-8 deal with storm #1 and a slow moving April version of the 1/12/11 event for storm #2.

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