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Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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Never heard that, although I think that logic holds true, partially for the snowmobile season ending in April out on the Tug Hill area of NYS.

Yeah it all depends on the conditions of the lease that ski areas make with the forest service, as 99% of ski areas in the U.S. are situated on state or federal land (state or national forests) and ski areas lease the land from the state parks or forest service. The lease usually gives dates that the ski area can operate between.

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Tell me something, how many of you could honestly say that you'd want the NAM crushing SNE right now....and you wouldn't be lamenting the fact that we had consensus over sne some 78 hrs out.

I honestly wouldn't mind if the NAM was crushing my backyard right now. I'd much rather see it having a huge 970mb bomb over KBOS right now haha.

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The 12z NAM is clearly demonstrating wave interference as it attempts at least excuse imaginable to hold onto the lead impuse, causing a big negative feed-back on what the 2ndary much more powerful S/W can do.

Again, cannot stress enough my feelings that this can be subject to change in particularly more over the next 24 hours than any time up to, and after this particular next 4 cycles of model runs.

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This is definitely the reason why most ski areas close down... take today up at Stowe for example. Its 12F at the top, 24F at the base, its been snowing steadily all morning, conditions are fantastic for mid-January and there's absolutely no one here. Snowfall doesn't even bring folks out anymore.

There are some ski areas though that are told by the forest service at the state or federal level that they need to close on a certain date for wildlife coming out of hibernation or migration patterns. This is much more common out west though.

Some areas close based on what type of insurance policy they have. The insurance requires opening and closing dates defined in a contract. This is and skier numbers are the big issues for the smaller ski areas.

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Never heard that, although I think that logic holds true, partially for the snowmobile season ending in April out on the Tug Hill area of NYS.

What usually kills sledding is water. Unless every little brook/wetland is bridged, they get real nasty even when the higher ground has great snow.

as 99% of ski areas in the U.S. are situated on state or federal land (state or national forests) and ski areas lease the land from the state parks or forest service.

PF: That's likely true, but not here in Maine. I don't think any of the state's downhill ski areas are on state/federal land (unless Saddleback includes some federal AT acres, which I doubt), though the fairly new huts/trails system includes some XC mileage on public land. Big Squaw, near Moosehead Lake and not open the past few years, was state-owned about 20 yr ago, but is all private now.

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What usually kills sledding is water. Unless every little brook/wetland is bridged, they get real nasty even when the higher ground has great snow.

What also kills it for the fair weather sledder is when grooming operations cease, Most projects at this time of year are out of money, Diehards will still ride off trail, But for the most, They move on to other things rather then have to travel to ride..

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Some areas close based on what type of insurance policy they have. The insurance requires opening and closing dates defined in a contract. This is and skier numbers are the big issues for the smaller ski areas.

Cool... I had not heard of that before but it makes sense. I'm sure insurance payments are made based on the number of operating days... but now we are getting waaaay OT.

24F

-SN/SN at times

dusting to 1" so far

upslope machine has been turned to the "on" position.

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Right, but if you were here....you'd want it whiffing.

I guess... but I'd still like to see it showing a solid storm. I've never really been a fan of the "being in the bullseye 4 days out is bad" camp.... I think you want to always be in the bullseye because the model is seeing something that will produce snow in your area. I'm not talking about weenie voo-doo superstitions but I bet those areas within the "target zone" on a model 3-4 days out, do end up getting more snow on average than those areas that are not in the bullseye at 3-4 days.

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I am wondering if this initial wave is pushing the baroclinic zone offshore and than the follow sw goes bonkers in it's wake.

It would have to be the 3rd one verbatium on the Nam, The second one gets absorbed by the 1st s/w, But i think we would want the 1st one to be the weaker s/w to give one of the next 2 more room to amplify..

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Our friend in Gray had to have written this discussion...

00Z MODEL SUITE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INTENSE LOWPRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEAST BY FRIDAY...BUT THESIMILARITIES STOP THERE! GFS KEEPS THE NOR`EASTER VERY CLOSE TO THECOAST...WITH STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW INLAND...ALLOWING STRONG WARMAIR ADVECTION TO QUICKLY CHANGE THE PCPN OVER TO RAIN OVER SOUTHERNAREAS. THIS SCENARIO WOULD LIKELY BRING THE DRY SLOT OVER SOUTHERNMAINE/NEW HAMPSHIRE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. EURO IS FURTHER OFFSHOREWITH THE SURFACE LOW DURING ITS ENTIRE TRACK...CRANKING UP A 976 MBLOW OVER CAPE COD BY FRIDAY EVENING -- WHILE THE CANADIAN GEM ISEVEN FURTHER OUT TO SEA. MEANWHILE...THE DGEX HALTS THE LOW SOUTH OFOUR LATITUDE AND DROPS PILES OF PCPN TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.HENCE...WITH THE DISCUSSION ABOVE...CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON CHAIN OFEVENTS IS LOW AT THIS TIME...BUT STARTING TO CLIMB. MODELS STILLSTRUGGLING WITH WHICH SHORT WAVE WILL BE TAPPED FOR THIS EVENT. ACOMPROMISE SOLN MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO RUN. IN THISCASE...SNOW WOULD BE THE PRIMARY PTYPE...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY MIXINGWITH RAIN ALONG THE COAST...BUT REMAINING ALL SNOW INLAND. 06Z GFSJUST CAME IN WITH A DREAM TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE 00Z EURO. WILL SEEIF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SETTLE DOWN TODAY AS -4 SD UCOMPONENT CROSSES OVER OUR AREA FRIDAY.

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Certainly no locks..but odds are def increasing exponentially of the possibility of significant snow falling Thurs nite-Sat

For people like me at 200 feet of elevation and most of populated SNE it's very unusual to get a blockbuster April storm. 1982, 1997, it's unusual. So we'll see.

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Yeah it all depends on the conditions of the lease that ski areas make with the forest service, as 99% of ski areas in the U.S. are situated on state or federal land (state or national forests) and ski areas lease the land from the state parks or forest service. The lease usually gives dates that the ski area can operate between.

Wachusett leases the land from Mass and I guess they have an agreement not to operate beyone the 15th (although they have other events during the summer, fall)

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Even for the hills it's relatively difficult..so again no locks..but my exciteent level is increasing/.

Yeah I'd certainly rather be at your elevation than mine.

Again anything less than 8" will do nothing for me. So if the outcome looks like 3-6 I'll probably lose interest fast.

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