CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So when do I get a truck load of weenies to my front door, as I hit 10,000 posts? Time to slow that down a tad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yea.. the 6z gfs is essentially 1/12/11.. tracks over the cape giving everyone feet with dynamic cooling.. I'd rather have a little taint of rain tho than a boring whiff.. tracks west don't both me yet.. it can always come back east a little... The Nam showing nothing does kind of scare me Nam does not scare me at all, It has done this just about all winter being late to the party, It will come around at some point, Probably as soon as today if not by 12z tomorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So when do I get a truck load of weenies to my front door, as I hit 10,000 posts? Time to slow that down a tad. Yes, you really need to get out and enjoy a spirited match of frisbee golf more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The only bad thing about this run is it can only get worse from here on out. This is about as good as it gets in every single aspect from mid-levels to upper levels to sfc for SNE...esp eastern half of SNE. The only limiting factor is the April sun angle...but it pretty much will not get better than this in any model run from here on out. This is a KU for SNE in April....so do not get married to this solution. Married? That's crazy talk. But I'm sure you don't mind if I spend 15 minutes in the bathroom with it, do you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 So when do I get a truck load of weenies to my front door, as I hit 10,000 posts? Time to slow that down a tad. That should tell you one thing, You have no life outside of AmericanWX.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Nam does not scare me at all, It has done this just about all winter being late to the party, It will come around at some point, Probably as soon as today if not by 12z tomorow 100% agree. NAM is dead to me at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What is keeping the ens means se Scooter, lack of amplification due to too many S/w's in the flow? They seem to be perhaps weaker with the middle shortwave, but ensembles sometimes do this as the resolution perhaps isn't enough to truly depict the s/w intensity. I made a comment about the models coming to a compromise, but perhaps the op runs turn out to me more correct? Very dynamic time of year. HPC seemed to take a compromise of the GEFS and euro op, with a bit more weight to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That should tell you one thing, You have no life outside of AmericanWX.....lol LOL, I'm fine in that dept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 They seem to be perhaps weaker with the middle shortwave, but ensembles sometimes do thus as the resolution perhaps isn't enough to truly depict the s/w intensity. I made a comment about the models coming to a compromise, but perhaps the op runs turn out to me more correct? Very dynamic time of year. HPC seemed to take a compromise of the GEFS and euro op, with a bit more weight to the op. Thanks Scooter, I really appreciate your thoughts.........should be a fun couple days, and by tonight only 48 hours from potential start time down here, its really not that far off at all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I have to say, Bob gives good thread. Each one he starts is a winner. Almost lol'd as I admin MCAS... Geez this is enticing, but 72 hours out is scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Looks like Mr. Bastardi likes extreme nw ct the berks up into southern vt and nh and coastal maine for 6+ inches, 3-6 for the interior and 1-3 along the immediate coast of sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 BOX has been reading Blizz's posts: MAIN POINTS * HIGH PRES WITH COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL HOLD THRU THURSDAY * COASTAL STORM...PSBL NOR`EASTER...THURS NGT EXITING BY SAT MORN * RIDGE OF HIGH PRES SATURDAY INTO MONDAY * ANOTHER SYSTEM EXPECTED FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK OVERVIEW... INITIALLY 0Z GFS REMAINED A STRONG OUTLIER WITH REGARDS TO THE COASTAL STORM EXPECTED BY THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT NOW THE LATEST 0Z ECMWF HAS DEVELOPED A VERY SIMILAR STRONG SOLUTION...AND MUCH CLOSER TO THE NEW ENGLAND SHORELINE. CONSIDERED THE 12Z ECMWF/18Z GFS WITH THE LATEST FCST PACKAGE...BUT NOW FEEL A STRONGER OUTCOME IS QUITE POSSIBLE FOR OUR NEXT STORM. UNCERTAINTY STILL ABOUNDS...NAO/AO TELECONNECTIONS ARE FCST TO A NEUTRAL STATE BY THE TIME THE COASTAL STORM TAKES SHAPE LENDING TO A WEAKENED BLOCKING PATTERN AND LESS COLDER AIR ENTRENCHING INTO THE STORM. CHALLENGES WILL CONTINUE IN REGARDS TO BOTH SFC TEMPS AND WINDS PRIOR...DURING...AND AFTER THE STORM. DETAILS WILL LIKELY CHANGE. DETAILS... WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY... ARCTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BRINGING SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO THE RGN WILL RETAIN A STRONGHOLD ACROSS THE AREA. MID-LVLS WILL REMAIN BELOW FRZG AND EXCEPTIONALLY DRY. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SW AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE THRU THE LONGWAVE PATTERN TRANSLATES EWD THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC/SERN CONUS RGN. WILL RETAIN SLGT CHC POPS FOR THE EXTREME S/SW PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND FOR LIGHT RAIN/SNOW UNDER LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC WINDS. COASTAL STORM (THURSDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY)... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A H5 LONGWAVE TROF FRIDAY RESULTING IN THE TROF AMPLIFYING AND BECOMING POSITIVELY TILTED...POSSIBLY A CLOSED LOW...THRU THE NERN CONUS INTO SATURDAY. DISTURBANCES DO NOT APPEAR TO PHASE...AND THE STRENGTH/ AMPLIFICATION OF WHICH DIFFER AMONGST MDL SOLUTIONS RESULTING IN VARYING OUTCOMES OF UPR LVL DYNAMICS...ENHANCED LIFT...AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT/PLACEMENT. RATHER THAN GOING INTO A DEEPER DISCUSSION CONCERNING ALL THE VARIATION AND UNCERTAINTY...THERE ARE SOME MAIN HAZARDS THAT WILL REQUIRE ATTENTION. ONSHORE WINDS...THE LOCATION/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THE SFC LOW WILL LIKELY DICTATE SFC WINDS. A STRONG NE H925 LLJ UPWARDS OF 50KTS IS APPARENT BY MIDDAY FRIDAY PER LATEST 0Z ECMWF. WIND...ALONG WITH A DEEPENING LOW...WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS TO SHORELINE COMMUNITIES CONCERNING SURGE POTENTIAL. UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME IF WINDS WILL EXCEED WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER LAND. SNOW POTENTIAL...SIMILAR FACTORS CONCERNING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURE FIELDS. BOTH GFS/ECMWF HIGHLIGHT SFC WET BULB TEMPS BELOW FRZG FOR INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CT/MA/NH IN ADDITION TO SFC TEMPS BELOW FRZG FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. LITTLE CERTAINTY PRESENTLY ON DIURNAL TRENDS AND PRECIP TYPE...WILL HAVE A BETTER HANDLE AS WE GET CLOSER IN TIME. AS BOTH GFS/ECMWF PRESENT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS CONCERNING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT...MID- LVL FIELDS DIFFER WHICH IMPACT PRECIP OUTCOMES. ACCUMS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. And they mention another storm next week? But a warm front... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Nam does not scare me at all, It has done this just about all winter being late to the party, It will come around at some point, Probably as soon as today if not by 12z tomorow Problem is the NAM handed it to the GFS with that last storm that pretty much whiffed. GFS literally got owned during that storm as it was advertising warning criteria snow to the NH/MA border only 24 hours out... which ended up being 1-2" across far, far SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Problem is the NAM handed it to the GFS with that last storm that pretty much whiffed. GFS literally got owned during that storm as it was advertising warning criteria snow to the NH/MA border only 24 hours out... which ended up being 1-2" across far, far SNE. a valid fear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
klw Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Nam does not scare me at all, It has done this just about all winter being late to the party, It will come around at some point, Probably as soon as today if not by 12z tomorow And if I am remembering things correctly, when NAM does show the storm it will soon show twice the qpf of all the others and probably end up with the others chasing towards it at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This run destroys the areas from NJ (esp higher elevations) up through western mass. Perfect 700mb track for them. It also has a secondary QPF max area..perhaps CF or very strong low level frontogenesis related, over ern and se areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 It does appear that some snow is en route. It will be interesting to see what wins out: the melting of the remainder of my field or a replenishment of undetermined depth. I don't think a snow storm will sit well with my daughter's visit to Keene. She was there in the snow a month or so ago. I think she might find sitting in the stands watching Jay play at Towson a better climatological place. Meanwhile, looks like a relatively warm one today. Already up to 30.1/14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 This run destroys the areas from NJ (esp higher elevations) up through western mass. Perfect 700mb track for them. It also has a secondary QPF max area..perhaps CF or very strong low level frontogenesis related, over ern and se areas. Not bad for the TAN/OWD/GHG area eh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This run destroys the areas from NJ (esp higher elevations) up through western mass. Perfect 700mb track for them. It also has a secondary QPF max area..perhaps CF or very strong low level frontogenesis related, over ern and se areas. Which run, Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 a valid fear... The main difference though is that the EURO was showing a miss, too, with that storm. The GFS was literally on its own. For this one, the GFS has the ECMWF and other support for the bigger solution. The NAM seems to be on its own now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Not bad for the TAN/OWD/GHG area eh. It gets a little dicey from 800mb on down, but yes close to a blue bomb. A track just a little farther east would work out for many of us, and still allow MPM to satisfy his QPF fetish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Which run, Scott? 06z GFS OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 EC and 06z GFS ensembles are pretty far se, actually. However, eventually we have to start to move way from ensembles and start weighing in the op runs. EC ensembles are just about near or a hair se of the BM. That could be a good thing because perhaps we see some sort of a compromise, which could be good for a lot of us, but yes caution is to be observed since we have many more runs to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The main difference though is that the EURO was showing a miss, too, with that storm. The GFS was literally on its own. For this one, the GFS has the ECMWF and other support for the bigger solution. The NAM seems to be on its own now. Crazy Uncle Ukie still crazy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 06z GFS OP. 17 posts till you break the 10000 barrier. Make them good ones and you will be in weenie heaven This is a fun storm to watch from a model analysis/education view Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I personally think it's time to start getting serious about this storm..and not be cautious..this could be a life threatening situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Problem is the NAM handed it to the GFS with that last storm that pretty much whiffed. GFS literally got owned during that storm as it was advertising warning criteria snow to the NH/MA border only 24 hours out... which ended up being 1-2" across far, far SNE. I won't go out and say that its totally wrong here it would be a major coup if it trumped all the other guidance including the GFS, But thats the problem, The GFS lies within all the other guidance outside of the NAM, Right now, The Nam is the outlier as it lies the furthest east for the most part.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This run destroys the areas from NJ (esp higher elevations) up through western mass. Perfect 700mb track for them. It also has a secondary QPF max area..perhaps CF or very strong low level frontogenesis related, over ern and se areas. I get a foot of snow on the 6z gfs here in coastal NJ lol..Zone omega is even crazier. It really is perfect, and fun to look at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Quick word of caution - No model yet benefits from the denser sounding domain over land. The bulk...all actually, of the jet dynamics are over the NE Pacific as of 06z. One could argue that the 12z initializaiton this morning might get tickled, but really that is 00z onward tonight. As tempting as it may be to bite into a 06z GFS solution, there could be some significant adjustments by 12z Wednesday morning, despite the fact that we are only really 84-96 hours from whatever is going to unfold from this. Or not - often enough however we do see system mophology upon final relay over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 I personally think it's time to start getting serious about this storm..and not be cautious..this could be a life threatening situation I'd wait till 00z tomorrow morning. 12z runs today should get a handle on the s/w's and tonight a better idea of track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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