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Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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6z GFS bufkit is downright sick for HFD/BDL...thermal profile is certainly cold enough for snow, although the temps down towards the sfc are slightly above freezing given the dynamics aloft and the intensity of the precip it would remain all snow.

Lol, BUFKIT is hilarious. It has CAN getting 29.6". :lmao:

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Its going to be enjoyable to watch this play out........nam looks nothing like the gfs, and as we ALL know GFS is "garbage in>garbage out"..........lot of shortwaves on the map, that being said I think a 3-6 inch snowfall above 1.5k in the berks, greens and whites is certainly on the table, and so is a complete whiff, timing must be absolutely perfect for the CP to see any accumulating snow, especially with blocking breaking down and the NAO heading towards nuetral later this week.

Good luck to all!!

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Well, I don't know if the models can get better today, I think we see some more waffling, I would rather see them go a little east, The stronger s/w 2 gets, The further west it will want to track and we don't really need it any further west but we will see..

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EC and 06z GFS ensembles are pretty far se, actually. However, eventually we have to start to move way from ensembles and start weighing in the op runs. EC ensembles are just about near or a hair se of the BM. That could be a good thing because perhaps we see some sort of a compromise, which could be good for a lot of us, but yes caution is to be observed since we have many more runs to come.

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Well, I don't know if the models can get better today, I think we see some more waffling, I would rather see them go a little east, The stronger s/w 2 gets, The further west it will want to track and we don't really need it any further west but we will see..

Yea.. the 6z gfs is essentially 1/12/11.. tracks over the cape giving everyone feet with dynamic cooling.. I'd rather have a little taint of rain tho than a boring whiff.. tracks west don't both me yet.. it can always come back east a little...

The Nam showing nothing does kind of scare me

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EC and 06z GFS ensembles are pretty far se, actually. However, eventually we have to start to move way from ensembles and start weighing in the op runs. EC ensembles are just about near or a hair se of the BM. That could be a good thing because perhaps we see some sort of a compromise, which could be good for a lot of us, but yes caution is to be observed since we have many more runs to come.

What is keeping the ens means se Scooter, lack of amplification due to too many S/w's in the flow?

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