40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 JUST inside BM....just about a perfect track for me....trend may not be done, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Will, this almost pulls a P007 from the 06z ensembles...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Easily biggest late season storm since 1997 on this run for all over the eastern half of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think this run will be good. F....T....W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This is going to be a huge hit...even for Ray. A bomb for SNE. In fact it might be Ray in the jackpot for this run. F-T-W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 F....T....W F-T-W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Man, I gotta wk tmw, but I really wanna see that algoweenie map....Ekster is only @ wk when it shows .5" of slush for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You're "it might be too much for here" tainted your prediction. I see all that is deleted, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That middle s/w just nukes out over SNE. It goes nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You're "it might be too much for here" tainted your prediction. I see all that is deleted, lol. Well, cmon' dude....it's tough to extrapolate to within 20 miles....I started guessing earlier than you. I thought it looked good, but thought it could get to like near the cape. It was one post...not "all that". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You're "it might be too much for here" tainted your prediction. I see all that is deleted, lol. A bombing low taking that track is perfect for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well, cmon' dude....it's tough to extrapolate to within 20 miles....I started guessing earlier than you. I thought it looked good, but thought it could get to like near the cape. All I had to do is look at the 850 low...it was constricting the the WAA to the Cape...you were good on that panel. It was a nuke once we got to 78-84h. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ugh..I hate seeing this almost 4 days out...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 All I had to do is look at the 850 low...it was constricting the the WAA to the Cape...you were good on that panel. It was a nuke once we got to 78-84h. Would have been nice if I had access to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 A bombing low taking that track is perfect for eastern areas. This run gives me about 14-18" of snow and I'm only mildly excited. So much time left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ugh..I hate seeing this almost 4 days out...lol. I know, we'll be hearing "this is nukes the interior" @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Would have been nice if I had access to that. Can't you see 850 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Would have been nice if I had access to that. You do, in a sense. You got 850 temps...you could see them tightening up S of the Cape at 84h compared to 78h..that was a clear signal that it was a monster hit. You cooled to like -5 or -6 in that time. No chance you were getting overwhelmed there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I know, we'll be hearing "this is nukes the interior" @ 12z. This would be crushing. Almost painful to see, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You do, in a sense. You got 850 temps...you could see them tightening up S of the Cape at 84h compared to 78h..that was a clear signal that it was a monster hit. You cooled to like -5 or -6 in that time. No chance you were getting overwhelmed there. That's what I could see happening if the 12z euro bombed out a little closer. 850 temps warmed, but no doubt it would have cooled if deeper lift moved in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The only bad thing about this run is it can only get worse from here on out. This is about as good as it gets in every single aspect from mid-levels to upper levels to sfc for SNE...esp eastern half of SNE. The only limiting factor is the April sun angle...but it pretty much will not get better than this in any model run from here on out. This is a KU for SNE in April....so do not get married to this solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Can't you see 850 temps? Yes, but not H85 pressure contours....so I was looking @ H5\SLP overlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You do, in a sense. You got 850 temps...you could see them tightening up S of the Cape at 84h compared to 78h..that was a clear signal that it was a monster hit. You cooled to like -5 or -6 in that time. No chance you were getting overwhelmed there. Yes, but not H85 pressure contours....so I was looking @ H5\SLP overlay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well that was fun. Hopefully tomorrow clears a few things up, but I anticipate a lot of questions still needing to be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That's what I could see happening if the 12z euro bombed out a little closer. 850 temps warmed, but no doubt it would have cooled if deeper lift moved in. We said that 850 junk was nonsense at 12z. And its nowhere to be found on this run. There's a reason we say not to get married to any run and this is true for this one as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Yes, but not H85 pressure contours....so I was looking @ H5\SLP overlay. I don't have contours either, but you can have a guess where the low is by the shape of the contours of the isotherms. Take a peak at how the 0C isotherm just stops and then we actually have 850 temps cool over ern mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just for the debbie downers who hate snow in this thread....do not worry, this is just one run of the Euro. Very unlikely to verify. The lesser snow solutions are certainly way more favored. Long way to go to trend this into a rainstorm or a whiff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 We said that 850 junk was nonsense at 12z. And its nowhere to be found on this run. There's a reason we say not to get married to any run and this is true for this one as well. I think that fact it didn't go nuts with the first wave, helped. That went to town on the 12z run despite weak forcing which seemed a little weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I don't have contours either, but you can have a guess where the low is by the shape of the contours of the isotherms. Take a peak at how the 0C isotherm just stops and then we actually have 850 temps cool over ern mass. I understand that, but again....I had the H5\SLP overlay for 12z and 00z up to compare; I didn't have the H85 temp image up. Will saw that because I guess he doesn't mind having 12 windows open, but I just guess from looking @ H5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I understand that, but again....I had the H5\SLP over lay for 12z and 00z up to compare, I didn't have the H85 temp image up. Will saw that because I guess he doesn't mind having 12 windows open, but I just guess from looking @ H5. LOL, I try to have surface, 850 if need be, and 500 all fired up. Sometimes, compared to the old runs. I just like to see the differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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