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Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April


Baroclinic Zone

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GFS is focusing the storm on that lead s/w that the NAM had near the SC coast at 84h...its actually a pretty big hit for a chunk of SNE at 90-96h. But I'm not sure it plays out that way given the strength of the main s/w digging in the south.

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GFS is focusing the storm on that lead s/w that the NAM had near the SC coast at 84h...its actually a pretty big hit for a chunk of SNE at 90-96h. But I'm not sure it plays out that way given the strength of the main s/w digging in the south.

Which Is more likely to happen IYO? Or would they sort of combine around NC/VA area?

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The main s/w is trying to take over by 108h and producing another storm climbing the coast. Its a bit warmer though because of the first one pushing some decent WAA (which did cause a decent snowstorm)....but it does look like some snow from that one too after starting as rain.

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The main s/w is trying to take over by 108h and producing another storm climbing the coast. Its a bit warmer though because of the first one pushing some decent WAA (which did cause a decent snowstorm)....but it does look like some snow from that one too after starting as rain.

Plausible solution.

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Confluence isn't the issue here, as the E. Canada trough is forecast to lift out rapidly late this week. If the Fri storm is out to sea, it would be because the shortwaves can't consolidate, not because of confluence.

Also, the NAO is forecast to rise to around neutral by Fri.

post-88-0-78605200-1301329011.gif

Too much Neg NAO, confluence.

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Confluence isn't the issue here, as the E. Canada trough is forecast to lift out rapidly late this week. If the Fri storm is out to sea, it would be because the shortwaves can't consolidate, not because of confluence.

Also, the NAO is forecast to rise to around neutral by Fri.

post-88-0-78605200-1301329011.gif

Agreed, suppression hasn't been my worry with this one...I think we'd have to get a perfect storm of screwed up s/w interference to fail to get latitude gain in this system. My bigger worry is a phased bomb up the Hudson Valley or something.

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Yes, the 12z GFS might have produced that Hudson Valley bomb solution if it didn't have the lead s/w out ahead that drags the baroclinic zone eastward and prevents a full phase.

Agreed, suppression hasn't been my worry with this one...I think we'd have to get a perfect storm of screwed up s/w interference to fail to get latitude gain in this system. My bigger worry is a phased bomb up the Hudson Valley or something.

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