CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Weren't the 12z GEFS good for us, too... Yeah they were se, as usual. Ensembles are se more often than not..thanks to the resolution. We'll see what the rest of the guidance does as it doesn't mean they are wrong. Eventually you transition from weighing the ensembles to weighing the op runs in the 72-96 hr timeframe, but the setup can dictate how quickly you want to transition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Great to be back with something to track... Haven't contributed much through a useless March, but I lurk regularly and enjoy your discussions! The op 0Z GFS looking uncomfortably close to this, April 16 2007: Of course that was a much warmer setup too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just to expand on this...this is actually probably something I'll never see again in my life time.....ORH was 28/22 on Mar 22, 1998 with a powdery snow, then a little over a week later it was 84/60. Just try and fathom that for a second. You have a hi of 28 and low of 22 with a dry powdery snow falling and then just over a week later its 84 with a low of 60. That was just one weird winter. So many coastals with no cold air to work with. I've never seen so many lows coming up the coast with 540 to 546 thicknesses out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ukie has a pretty big storm over the BM at 96h. Its actually a bit E of the BM but has a very strong inverted trough extending back well W. I'd have to think think that is a good hit for E SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That was just one weird winter. So many coastals with no cold air to work with. I've never seen so many lows coming up the coast with 540 to 546 thicknesses out ahead of it. The april '82 storm comes to my mind as something i probably wont ever see again...ie...blowing and drifting powdery snow...even down on long island. Not only that...had highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for 2 or 3 days after the storm. I think one night may have even been in the upper teens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The april '82 storm comes to my mind as something i probably wont ever see again...ie...blowing and drifting powdery snow...even down on long island. Not only that...had highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for 2 or 3 days after the storm. I think one night may have even been in the upper teens. The day after the April '82 blizzard under full sunshine (and fresh snowpack which helps)...ORH had a high of 21F. That is almost impossible to have as a high temp in April under full bright sunshine...even at 1000 feet like ORH is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The april '82 storm comes to my mind as something i probably wont ever see again...ie...blowing and drifting powdery snow...even down on long island. Not only that...had highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for 2 or 3 days after the storm. I think one night may have even been in the upper teens. That storm had -8C to -10C 850 temps, that's incredible for the time of year. I think the pic that really said a lot for that storm, was the famous pic from NYC of a woman who must have slipped and fell on the sidewalk, with the scroll warning of heavy snow, in Times Square. It's in the Kocin book. The snow didn't have that wet look..it actually looked like it was blowing and drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The day after the April '82 blizzard under full sunshine (and fresh snowpack which helps)...ORH had a high of 21F. That is almost impossible to have as a high temp in April under full bright sunshine...even at 1000 feet like ORH is. Highs in the lower 20s in april...that is amazing. Thats below normal even in feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 That storm had -8C to -10C 850 temps, that's incredible for the time of year. I think the pic that really said a lot for that storm, was the famous pic from NYC of a woman who must have slipped and fell on the sidewalk, with the scroll warning of heavy snow, in Times Square. It's in the Kocin book. The snow didn't have that wet look..it actually looked like it was blowing and drifting. Yeah LGA had some great obs that day...hard to fathom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Highs in the lower 20s in april...that is amazing. Thats below normal even in feb. Its a -10F departure at the coldest climo of the year. Coldest climo for ORH is 31F high for about 2 weeks in January. The 11F low they recorded that day is even still 4F below climo for the coldest low climo of 15F in mid January. I believe the high was like a -30 or 31F departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Canadian looks like it passes very close to the BM, but just grazes southeast areas to the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Canadian looks like it passes very close to the BM, but just grazes southeast areas to the Pike. Where is Phil...that is a Phil special in April, lol. Outer half of the cape looks like it gets smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ukie has a pretty big storm over the BM at 96h. Its actually a bit E of the BM but has a very strong inverted trough extending back well W. I'd have to think think that is a good hit for E SNE. LOL BTV-KBEV-CC-se of BM Is there a se trend on the UK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The day after the April '82 blizzard under full sunshine (and fresh snowpack which helps)...ORH had a high of 21F. That is almost impossible to have as a high temp in April under full bright sunshine...even at 1000 feet like ORH is. Hi of 21 low of 11, 4 nights in a row with low in the teens. Because the sun is so strong 15 inches melted in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm encouraged to see the UK and GEM se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I'm encouraged to see the UK and GEM se. Certainly not a bad thing. Dr no should have an answer..or should I say opinion..in about 15 min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hi of 21 low of 11, 4 nights in a row with low in the teens. Because the sun is so strong 15 inches melted in 5 days. Well I think temps were back in the 50s within 4 days. It doesn't take long to melt April snow once you get back over 40F. I do remember my family telling me that the snow piles lasted quite a long time. Which is typical for a big April snow. The piles from April 1997 lasted well into May. Its surprising how fast it melts once you get 70F temps and sunny. But if you have one of those ugly 55F Aprils with a lot of cutoffs, then those snow piles will rot for a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Certainly not a bad thing. Dr no should have an answer..or should I say opinion..in about 15 min. More like it with the swings we will see in this event. I will say the one encouraging thing is we keep seeing the consensus hang near the BM despite the swings in each individual model. This time we have the GFS OP well west and the NAM well east..the ensembles are good...the Canadian is slightly east...and the Ukie is near the mean of all of them over the BM....we don't seem to have a consensus shifting well east or west of the BM which is good IMHO....obviously that doesn't mean a whole lot yet, but its a much better thing than having it shift well east or well west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Well I think temps were back in the 50s within 4 days. It doesn't take long to melt April snow once you get back over 40F. I do remember my family telling me that the snow piles lasted quite a long time. Which is typical for a big April snow. The piles from April 1997 lasted well into May. Its surprising how fast it melts once you get 70F temps and sunny. But if you have one of those ugly 55F Aprils with a lot of cutoffs, then those snow piles will rot for a long time. Yeah, it was 21,32,40,47 then 50, even that 32 degree day must have melted quite a bit, it was nice and icy at night and early morning. Im old enough to remember that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think this will continue the trend of increasingly amped EURO runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think this run will be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Hopefully we can get enough snow here so I can eclipse the 70'' mark and BDL can eclipse the 90'' mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The equinox storm on Mar 21-22, 1998 gets forgotten too because of the massive heat wave. We actually had a cold powdery 5" of snow in that storm. It was really cold. Then we are above July 20th climo a week later, lol. That was a crazy few weeks there. I think that was the only snowfall we had all year outside a few coatings, down here in NYC metro. 97-98 was about to set the futility record for Central Park, which is 2.8" in 72-73, and then 3/22 saved the day and we ended up with 5" on the season. Ironic to think the snowfall that saved us came after spring had begun officially. That was just one weird winter. So many coastals with no cold air to work with. I've never seen so many lows coming up the coast with 540 to 546 thicknesses out ahead of it. 97-98 was just cut-off after cut-off in the southern stream, such a weird pattern. I know places like UNV and the VA Apps did really well, as did Northern VT and Southern Quebec, since they can snow with the most putrid of airmasses in January/February, I think a lot of the storms were coastal huggers, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 984 over bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This is going to be a huge hit...even for Ray. A bomb for SNE. In fact it might be Ray in the jackpot for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Lock this in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 The april '82 storm comes to my mind as something i probably wont ever see again...ie...blowing and drifting powdery snow...even down on long island. Not only that...had highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s for 2 or 3 days after the storm. I think one night may have even been in the upper teens. 510m thicknesses entered NY State on April 7, 1982: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This is going to be a huge hit...even for Ray. A bomb for SNE. In fact it might be Ray in the jackpot for this run. It's got an absolute death comma head over us at hr 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Gotta love that pool of -25C 850s over SLK on 4/7/82. Where the heck did that come from in April? I know there was a double block (-EPO/-NAO), but that's a brutal airmass for mid-January, not just spring... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 What's the timing on the euro? Saturday AM? Friday into Saturday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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