Tulip Trouncer Threat II - End of March/ Early April

[ORH_wxman]

That ought to produce an odd Bufkit map

With the low position, it will show a decent amount of snow in the elevated interior with very little on the CP.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd probably get an inch or two of slush.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'd rather the wave interference induced, strung out POS.

[TalcottWx]

Thats a 10-12" deal interior NNE, limited on coastline of NNE due to onshore winds... WAA protrusion before occlusion.... probs 5-10" just off coast

Interior SNE looks 4-8"... coast with a big drop off to 2-4" maybe with front end and postocclude snows combined

[OKpowdah]

looks good ... for now. Would like to see the vacillation between offshore and closer tracks continue though

[H2Otown_WX]

I wonder if the ensembles will still be well SE. Wish I could stay up to find out but I have Calculus at 8.

[CoastalWx]

It flies the DS pretty quickly in, so it's maybe a 3-5 hr QPF event for most, then followed by lighter precip. Hopefully the ensembles look better, but that solution is not a shock.

[ORH_wxman]

looks good ... for now. Would like to see the vacillation between offshore and closer tracks continue though

GFS ensembles at 18z well offshore, and now this run. NAM well offshore at 00z and now this run.

Its probably good we are seeing the middle ground still as a favorable spot. We've had a few OP runs go there. I'm definitely still worried more about a huge amped up solution versus a suppressed OTS solution.

[Ginx snewx]

SFZ and ORH soundings not good after a good thump

[H2Otown_WX]

http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2011&model_mm=03&model_dd=29&model_init_hh=00&fhour=102&parameter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Low-res. accumulation map from twisterdata.

[ORH_wxman]

SFZ and ORH soundings not good after a good thump

Those show how quickly the dryslot works in. When you have ML centers passing W, the dryslot works in very fast. Scott (coastalwx) and I were talking today about how we were surprised so many mets were going with huge totals in the Feb 1-2 storm this year with that type of setup.

We'd get a hell of a thump for about 3-5 hours on the GFS as a heavy wet snow, but then it would dryslot pretty quickly.

[CoastalWx]

Also notice how weak that lead wave is at hr 54. This helps keep the baroclinic zone tight and close to the coast, so the second low has all the fuel in the world. This is what I mean by a small margin of error, because if that lead wave is too strong..it could shove everything east.

[Arnold214]

Also notice how weak that lead wave is at hr 54. This helps keep the baroclinic zone tight and close to the coast, so the second low has all the fuel in the world. This is what I mean by a small margin of error, because if that lead wave is too strong..it could shove everything east.

It's a pretty touchy synoptic situation right now...and big run to run swings in the models can be expected for awhile. It's just nice to have something decent to track coming into april. As long as we dont get dicked over by some sort of suppressed deal in the end, most everyone should see some accumulating early april snow...with upside potential. Its amazing how much the wx can vary from year to year around apr 1st...you go from 2-3' snowstorm one year (97) to 80-90 degree wx the next (98). At this point I'm just glad the pattern isnt boring as it could be.

[ORH_wxman]

It's a pretty touchy synoptic situation right now...and big run to run swings in the models can be expected for awhile. It's just nice to have something decent to track coming into april. As long as we dont get dicked over by some sort of suppressed deal in the end, most everyone should see some accumulating early april snow...with upside potential. Its amazing how much the wx can vary from year to year around apr 1st...you go from 2-3' snowstorm one year (97) to 80-90 degree wx the next (98). At this point I'm just glad the pattern isnt boring as it could be.

I agree, the antecedent airmass is nice enough that we can actually try and 12/16/07 our way to a decent event even without the perfect track. Obviously probably not the same amounts (outside of places like N ORH cty, SW NH or Berks), but still get something out of it if the GFS played out (or something relatively similar...maybe slightly less bonkers on the low)

We don;t have a lot of wiggle room, but its amazing we have any at all considering the calendar. It's nice to track something regardless of the outcome. It will definitely be a tail pipe sucker if it shows a huge storm 60-72h out and then craps on us, but IMHO its better than tracking a 45F cutoff or crappy 50F overcast weather. But to each his own.

Funny you mention 1998...all time greatest March temp here of 84F. I had golf tryouts as a junior in HS during that heat wave. I made the team...then we had practice at the same Wachusett country club about a week later with flakes flying under heavy overcast.

[CoastalWx]

It's a pretty touchy synoptic situation right now...and big run to run swings in the models can be expected for awhile. It's just nice to have something decent to track coming into april. As long as we dont get dicked over by some sort of suppressed deal in the end, most everyone should see some accumulating early april snow...with upside potential. Its amazing how much the wx can vary from year to year around apr 1st...you go from 2-3' snowstorm one year (97) to 80-90 degree wx the next (98). At this point I'm just glad the pattern isnt boring as it could be.

Ensembles rolling out now..probably with another solution.

[ORH_wxman]

00z GFS ensembles are just a shade SE of the BM. Very close to it.

[CoastalWx]

Ensembles rolling out not..probably with another solution.

LOL about 300 miles ese of the op.

[Arnold214]

00z GFS ensembles are just a shade SE of the BM. Very close to it.

I wonder what the mslp spread there is at this point. Some of the ensemble members could still be keying on different short waves.

[ORH_wxman]

I wonder what the mslp spread there is at this point. Some of the ensemble members could still be keying on different short waves.

They actually don't look obscenely spread at first glance on the mean....but its always hard to tell with timing issues. But in terms of a huge inverted trough back into central PA or something, it doesn't really show that. It seems most of the spread is back toward the coastline and the interior is very diffuse which tells me the OP has very little support of a solution that far west....I could be wrong, we'll see when the individual members come out.

Regardless, as you said, this synoptic setup is conductive large swings, so it probably really doesn't matter what the mean says right now. The 18z mean was 200-300 miles SE of the BM.

[CoastalWx]

I wonder what the mslp spread there is at this point. Some of the ensemble members could still be keying on different short waves.

There is spread, but it looks like the ensembles are weaker with the s/w that the op run tries to go bonkers with. Probably not a surprise given the resolution, but perhaps it also means the op run is too amped up. It reminds me of a scenario where both are on the extreme side of things and eventually find a middle point, but the question is..which model succumbs the most.

[Arnold214]

I agree, the antecedent airmass is nice enough that we can actually try and 12/16/07 our way to a decent event even without the perfect track. Obviously probably not the same amounts (outside of places like N ORH cty, SW NH or Berks), but still get something out of it if the GFS played out (or something relatively similar...maybe slightly less bonkers on the low)

We don;t have a lot of wiggle room, but its amazing we have any at all considering the calendar. It's nice to track something regardless of the outcome. It will definitely be a tail pipe sucker if it shows a huge storm 60-72h out and then craps on us, but IMHO its better than tracking a 45F cutoff or crappy 50F overcast weather. But to each his own.

Funny you mention 1998...all time greatest March temp here of 84F. I had golf tryouts as a junior in HS during that heat wave. I made the team...then we had practice at the same Wachusett country club about a week later with flakes flying under heavy overcast.

We made it into the mid 80s at LSC the last day of march...with 70s the day before that. Pretty much unheard of up there. I left for daytona a couple days later and it was snowing. I also remember playing in an intramural softball tournament in early may that year and snow was sticking to the grass on the infield. I'm pretty sure that was '98 but it could have been '97

[Arnold214]

They actually don't look obscenely spread at first glance on the mean....but its always hard to tell with timing issues. But in terms of a huge inverted trough back into central PA or something, it doesn't really show that. It seems most of the spread is back toward the coastline and the interior is very diffuse which tells me the OP has very little support of a solution that far west....I could be wrong, we'll see when the individual members come out.

Regardless, as you said, this synoptic setup is conductive large swings, so it probably really doesn't matter what the mean says right now. The 18z mean was 200-300 miles SE of the BM.

yeah the op may have not much support from the ensembles but ive seen that to be the case lots of times...and in the end the op wins anyway.

[ORH_wxman]

We made it into the mid 80s at LSC the last day of march...with 70s the day before that. Pretty much unheard of up there. I left for daytona a couple days later and it was snowing. I also remember playing in an intramural softball tournament in early may that year and snow was sticking to the grass on the infield. I'm pretty sure that was '98 but it could have been '97

The equinox storm on Mar 21-22, 1998 gets forgotten too because of the massive heat wave. We actually had a cold powdery 5" of snow in that storm. It was really cold. Then we are above July 20th climo a week later, lol.

That was a crazy few weeks there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

yeah the op may have not much support from the ensembles but ive seen that to be the case lots of times...and in the end the op wins anyway.

I was just thinking the same thing; VD storm was a perfect illustration of that.

[ORH_wxman]

I was just thinking the same thing; VD storm was a perfect illustration of that.

Well I think we need to see what other non-GFS guidance has to say as well. The GFS ensembles in Vday were keeping it way S, but the ECMWF said they were all full of horse sh**. So many of us never really believed the GFS or its ensembles in that one.

[CoastalWx]

The ensembles are pretty juicy for ern mass. That would make many happy..even up into Ekster's area.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well I think we need to see what other non-GFS guidance has to say as well. The GFS ensembles in Vday were keeping it way S, but the ECMWF said they were all full of horse sh**. So many of us never really believed the GFS or its ensembles in that one.

Right.....I was just speaking soley to his point RE the GEFS.

I don't think we have enough consistency from any model to be able to do that just yet, though.

[40/70 Benchmark]

The ensembles are pretty juicy for ern mass. That would make many happy..even up into Ekster's area.

Weren't the 12z GEFS good for us, too...

[ORH_wxman]

The equinox storm on Mar 21-22, 1998 gets forgotten too because of the massive heat wave. We actually had a cold powdery 5" of snow in that storm. It was really cold. Then we are above July 20th climo a week later, lol.

That was a crazy few weeks there.

Just to expand on this...this is actually probably something I'll never see again in my life time.....ORH was 28/22 on Mar 22, 1998 with a powdery snow, then a little over a week later it was 84/60.

Just try and fathom that for a second. You have a hi of 28 and low of 22 with a dry powdery snow falling and then just over a week later its 84 with a low of 60.

[Arnold214]

Well I think we need to see what other non-GFS guidance has to say as well. The GFS ensembles in Vday were keeping it way S, but the ECMWF said they were all full of horse sh**. So many of us never really believed the GFS or its ensembles in that one.

Remember that crazy map that guy will from northern maine drew up for the vd storm several days in advance when most of the guidance showed a whiff? Lol...it basically verified to a t.