CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Well, astute posters like Kevin are conservatively tossing numbers like 18+" so I thought I'd give you a chance to out forecast him with a 24-36" snowfall but I guess you're going to take the wait and see approach. I'd probably feel good for some measurable at 1400', but there are many questions out there. I think by 12z tomorrow, we'll narrow down the situation and have a better idea, but not all the questions will be answered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Also keep in mind about the GFS algorithms...they almost always over do sfc warming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Also keep in mind about the GFS algorithms...they almost always over do sfc warming. True. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I was more concerned about the disconnect between the modeled reality and other folks apparent perceptions of\inferences regarding it. It was a good hit for you, all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It was a good hit for you, all things considered. I agree.....the misundertsanding was partly my fault because when viewing those algorithms, I have to be honest and admit to forgetting that they sually run warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 At this point in the year...just be grateful if it snows..lol. We've been discussing all that energy hanging back, but I think models are slowly becoming a little more clearer and defined with everything. It seems like all that energy rounding the trough helps to slow down the low pressure and elongate it to the southwest, but we still aren't exactly clear how the s/w that ignites cyclogenesis and the extra energy rounding the trough will interact. We still could have crappy wave interference and a disorganized mess, but I think we have a good signal for some sort of East Coast low. I think what we have to wait and see, is how models battle out the role of these s/w's and which one becomes dominant. It seems like we might have to put all our eggs in one basket, with the s/w that develops the low pressure off of NC around hr 78-84. I think we have seen this theme over the last few months....will the trailing energy ignite or disrupt? We shall see either is possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I was more concerned about the disconnect between the modeled reality and other folks apparent perceptions of\inferences regarding it. This is something that I have started to grow accustomed to over the last year or so. When some of these numbers are posted, I used to take them as forecasts. 12"-18" incoming and all that. I think I know who is conservative and who is outtollandish in putting out numbers. We live in a land of what could be and not always what is likely to be. It is a fun hobby my wife doesn't get. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This is something that I have started to grow accustomed to over the last year or so. When some of these numbers are posted, I used to take them as forecasts. 12"-18" incoming and all that. I think I know who is conservative and who is outtollandish in putting out numbers. We live in a land of what could be and not always what is likely to be. It is a fun hobby my wife doesn't get. Who Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I think we have seen this theme over the last few months....will the trailing energy ignite or disrupt? We shall see either is possible Too many players shaking the ropes... I hope this doesn't have the confluence issues, the supression issues, or the PV issues of the last 6 or so threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Who Glad you caught that We all have rolls to play. He kicks the nests Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 1-3-03 is showing up as an analog on the 12z GFS at hr 96. Does any met. think that has validity? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 This is something that I have started to grow accustomed to over the last year or so. When some of these numbers are posted, I used to take them as forecasts. 12"-18" incoming and all that. I think I know who is conservative and who is outtollandish in putting out numbers. We live in a land of what could be and not always what is likely to be. It is a fun hobby my wife doesn't get. Those same algorithms also had ridiculous amounts during the second part of the early February storm and we know how that turned out. That's why Mike had the FWIW disclaimer. Just remember to treat them as such..especially 4 days out, but they do have some significance. I look at them all the time in the winter, but there are definitely situations where they are more useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 1-3-03 is showing up as an analog on the 12z GFS at hr 96. Does any met. think that has validity? Ugh. Ray will be happy, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Those same algorithms also had ridiculous amounts during the second part of the early February storm and we know how that turned out. That's why Mike had the FWIW disclaimer. Just remember to treat them as such..especially 4 days out, but they do have some significance. I look at them all the time in the winter, but there are definitely situations where they are more useful. Yup 12-18" with lollis to 24" incoming. I'd be happy with 1-3 with lollis to 5", but heck, it might be rain for all I know This is the best free education I have received in a long time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ugh. Ray will be happy, however. Pete might think it is ok, too: ...HAMPSHIRE... CHESTERFIELD 24.0 145 PM 01/04 WORTHINGTON 24.0 145 PM 01/04 GOSHEN 17.0 106 PM 01/04 FINAL HADLEY 13.0 950 AM 01/04 AMHERST - NORTH 12.0 1128 AM 01/04 WESTHAMPTON 11.0 750 AM 01/04 NORTHAMPTON 11.0 620 AM 01/04 WARE 9.0 957 AM 01/04 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Too many players shaking the ropes... I hope this doesn't have the confluence issues, the supression issues, or the PV issues of the last 6 or so threats All is on the table. Models sometimes are too quick to bring the nao towards neutral. Not saying that's the case just that nothing is out yet. Conservatively I'd forecast 1-3 feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 All is on the table. Models sometimes are too quick to bring the nao towards neutral. Not saying that's the case just that nothing is out yet. Conservatively I'd forecast 1-3 feet wave height on long beach? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 All is on the table. Models sometimes are too quick to bring the nao towards neutral. Not saying that's the case just that nothing is out yet. Conservatively I'd forecast 1-3 feet You never answered my question about where you were living during 4/1/97. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Ugh. Ray will be happy, however. Was that elevation dependent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Pete might think it is ok, too: ...HAMPSHIRE... CHESTERFIELD 24.0 145 PM 01/04 WORTHINGTON 24.0 145 PM 01/04 GOSHEN 17.0 106 PM 01/04 FINAL HADLEY 13.0 950 AM 01/04 AMHERST - NORTH 12.0 1128 AM 01/04 WESTHAMPTON 11.0 750 AM 01/04 NORTHAMPTON 11.0 620 AM 01/04 WARE 9.0 957 AM 01/04 Same time...same exact total..almost 1' higher then the others...hmm sounds like Pete submitted them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Was that elevation dependent? It screwed the coast. This is a different time of year, and those analogs look at 500mb, but I personally hated that storm. That year screwed me until 2/7/03...the famous snow event that had the megaband of 3-4" per hour snows. I loved that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 You never answered my question about where you were living during 4/1/97. Cobbs corner area but I actually spent the night of the storm a few miles south in the woods of borderland. Came across a guy that looked like gimly from the lord of the rings turned out to be ski mrg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Pete might think it is ok, too: ...HAMPSHIRE... CHESTERFIELD 24.0 145 PM 01/04 WORTHINGTON 24.0 145 PM 01/04 GOSHEN 17.0 106 PM 01/04 FINAL HADLEY 13.0 950 AM 01/04 AMHERST - NORTH 12.0 1128 AM 01/04 WESTHAMPTON 11.0 750 AM 01/04 NORTHAMPTON 11.0 620 AM 01/04 WARE 9.0 957 AM 01/04 Lol. What a surprise, Chesterfield and Worthington getting more than double the valley floor. Can't say I remember that one specifically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Same time...same exact total..almost 1' higher then the others...hmm sounds like Pete submitted them. I believe those are both coop totals. Worthington coop is still around, but that was the final winter for the Chesterfield coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Cobbs corner area but I actually spent the night of the storm a few miles south in the woods of borderland. Came across a guy that looked like gimly from the lord of the rings turned out to be ski mrg. Oh ok. Canton then. I wasn't sure when you transcended down to PYM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Same time...same exact total..almost 1' higher then the others...hmm sounds like Pete submitted them. LOL, Never even bothered to measure back then. Also, with only dial-up available I didn't spend much time on the internet. BTW the others are 1000+' lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I believe those are both coop totals. Worthington coop is still around, but that was the final winter for the Chesterfield coop. LOL, Never even bothered to measure back then. Also, with only dial-up available I didn't spend much time on the internet. BTW the others are 1000+' lower. Just bustin. I'm sure you were to busy to measure anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 I believe those are both coop totals. Worthington coop is still around, but that was the final winter for the Chesterfield coop. I love how you doubt me yet there is overwhelming evidence from multiple sources that this specific area wrings out the snow. Geez. Jealousy I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Oh ok. Canton then. I wasn't sure when you transcended down to PYM. Technically stoughton they all come together right there. Spent the night at girlfriends place a mile or so se of borderland. Mucho snow in Easton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Just bustin. I'm sure you were to busy to measure anyway. Isn't it past your bedtime. It is a school night afterall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.