ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Not being a dic* to you, but those point-and-clicks simply defer to climo at this extended lead....which at this stage is rain for most of us. Even closer in, they are really generalized....blase product, if you ask me. I like the p/c for here. Didn't Turtle just suggest that the p/c were actually quite good? Thought I read that in the last 2 weeks. Thursday Night: A chance of snow after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I was molested by a naughty male school teacher Hence the conference suite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Will, Scooter.........do you guys put any faith whatsoever into the GFS, especially given its recent performance. I am sure you guys use it for some guidance, but do you look at that run, then see the ens and just laugh? I know the GFS put up a stinker in the last event, but it's done ok this winter. It's guidance, like anything else. I usually roll with ensembles at this range, but they too can change significantly from run to run. At this range, there's usually no pressure in trying to nail a forecast so all you can really do is analyze the runs and try to see what makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 There was an event before that, on Apr 4-5 I think. I had about 2.5" or something. It looked a lot better about 60 hours out and then trended NW and we got a lot more rain but it changed to snow and we picked up some accumulation...even your area probably got an inch or so. Yeah, that was it. 4 or 5'' of absolute paste here. Hoping for a repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Tax day...I got sh**. I still remember the weenie GFS runs..even 72 hrs out. They were crushing, only to be crushed by rain and wind. That was one hell of a storm, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I still remember the weenie GFS runs..even 72 hrs out. They were crushing, only to be crushed by rain and wind. That was one hell of a storm, though. Yeah I was kinda disappointed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 FWIW 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I like the p/c for here. Didn't Turtle just suggest that the p/c were actually quite good? Thought I read that in the last 2 weeks. Thursday Night: A chance of snow after 10pm. Cloudy, with a low around 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday: A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a high near 34. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Well, April climo for you is much different than climo for e MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I love how every time someone tells me how huge of a weenie soloution a run was for me, I see the clown map depict like 4" of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I love how every time someone tells me how huge of a weenie soloution a run was for me, I see the clown map depict like 4" of slop. That's b/c the GFS gets you up to 37F on Sat. FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 FWIW 18z GFS Plymouth snow hole FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Hence the conference suite? What is it with you can the term "conference suit"....that and the word "conundrum" are your new fetishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Yeah I was kinda disappointed lol How's DT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 That's b/c the GFS gets you up to 37F on Sat. FWIW. I just wish people would stop implying that it's a weenie run for most of sne, when it isn't. Portion of it, sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Will and Scooter always say the models are warming the ML too much so that 4 inches would be more like 14..and the jackpot would be 18+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Well, April climo for you is much different than climo for e MA. Hope you get nuked Ray. Hope all of SNE gets buried even though I'll have to view it from afar. Feeling pretty good about a decent thump up here. Hope there's snow when I get back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 That's b/c the GFS gets you up to 37F on Sat. FWIW. All the precip is over by Sat? Interesting Bufkit when this is IJD 87 Fri 04/01 09Z 34 ° 34 ° 33 ° 33 ° NE 18 E 54 0.21 0.00 542 543 -5 ° -17 ° 1002 100 % 90 Fri 04/01 12Z 33 ° 34 ° 32 ° 34 ° NE 20 E 56 0.52 0.00 541 541 -4 ° -20 ° 998 100 % 93 Fri 04/01 15Z 32 ° 33 ° 32 ° 32 ° NE 22 ESE 51 0.13 0.00 543 539 -1 ° -20 ° 995 100 % 96 Fri 04/01 18Z 33 ° 33 ° 32 ° 33 ° NNE 16 E 27 0.06 0.00 541 534 -1 ° -22 ° 991 100 % 99 Fri 04/01 21Z 33 ° 33 ° 33 ° 33 ° N 13 NE 18 0.04 0.00 539 531 -1 ° -22 ° 990 98 % 102 Sat 04/02 00Z 32 ° 33 ° 32 ° 33 ° NNW 11 NNE 25 0.03 0.00 535 529 -3 ° -23 ° 992 98 % 105 Sat 04/02 03Z 30 ° 32 ° 31 ° 31 ° WNW 11 NW 20 0.02 0.00 532 527 -4 ° -24 ° 994 91 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 What is it with you can the term "conference suit"....that and the word "conundrum" are your new fetishes. LOL, you must have missed some posts, you alter and then take offense? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 FWIW 18z GFS I still get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I just wish people would stop implying that it's a weenie run for most of sne, when it isn't. Portion of it, sure. The soundings are pretty cold for you during most of the storm. That's more important to look at. The snow algorithms aren't always made to be taken verbatim..especially during anomalous events like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 How's DT? what, our conversation on fb? I respect DT but I feel like he sometimes goes out of his way to make arguments, even if he doesn't know what he's arguing about lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I just wish people would stop implying that it's a weenie run for most of sne, when it isn't. Portion of it, sure. You need to move someplace with elevation. You could be roomies with Kev on Weenie Ridge Our own odd couple. At least you get to be the Jack Klugman one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The soundings are pretty cold for you during most of the storm. That's more important to look at. The snow algorithms aren't always made to be taken verbatim..especially during anomalous events like this. It probably would end as a mix perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 All the precip is over by Sat? Interesting Bufkit when this is IJD 87 Fri 04/01 09Z 34 ° 34 ° 33 ° 33 ° NE 18 E 54 0.21 0.00 542 543 -5 ° -17 ° 1002 100 % 90 Fri 04/01 12Z 33 ° 34 ° 32 ° 34 ° NE 20 E 56 0.52 0.00 541 541 -4 ° -20 ° 998 100 % 93 Fri 04/01 15Z 32 ° 33 ° 32 ° 32 ° NE 22 ESE 51 0.13 0.00 543 539 -1 ° -20 ° 995 100 % 96 Fri 04/01 18Z 33 ° 33 ° 32 ° 33 ° NNE 16 E 27 0.06 0.00 541 534 -1 ° -22 ° 991 100 % 99 Fri 04/01 21Z 33 ° 33 ° 33 ° 33 ° N 13 NE 18 0.04 0.00 539 531 -1 ° -22 ° 990 98 % 102 Sat 04/02 00Z 32 ° 33 ° 32 ° 33 ° NNW 11 NNE 25 0.03 0.00 535 529 -3 ° -23 ° 992 98 % 105 Sat 04/02 03Z 30 ° 32 ° 31 ° 31 ° WNW 11 NW 20 0.02 0.00 532 527 -4 ° -24 ° 994 91 % True dat. Apon closer examination it's probably b/c thicknesses get above 540 and >0c 850 temps get up to BOS on friday. Like I said, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 what, our conversation on fb? I respect DT but I feel like he sometimes goes out of his way to make arguments, even if he doesn't know what he's arguing about lol Yup. Unending circle argument. Big big NNE storm incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I know the GFS put up a stinker in the last event, but it's done ok this winter. It's guidance, like anything else. I usually roll with ensembles at this range, but they too can change significantly from run to run. At this range, there's usually no pressure in trying to nail a forecast so all you can really do is analyze the runs and try to see what makes sense. Thanks Scooter, how much precip falls in sne on the 18z gfs ens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I'm still expecting mainly rain here. Way too much can go wrong in an April event. The odds of 6+ are still really really low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 One of the other reasons why the GFS snow amt forecast may be "OK" verbatim is that that 700mb low tracks from BDL to BOS then offshore...so naturally the best snows would be a distance to the left of that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 You need to move someplace with elevation. You could be roomies with Kev on Weenie Ridge Our own odd couple. At least you get to be the Jack Klugman one. Give me cold mid levels and I'll manage approximately 2\3 of what Will gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Ray, the 18z GFS BUFKIT for BED has 0.93"...all snow....but temps are 33-35F, verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.