CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:23 PM, litchfieldlibations said: Thanks Scooter, how much precip falls in sne on the 18z gfs ens? Looks like about 0.25" with maybe 0.5" on the Cape. Another possible solution if we have interference or a weak s/w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:27 PM, Arnold214 said: One of the other reasons why the GFS snow amt forecast may be "OK" verbatim is that that 700mb low tracks from BDL to BOS then offshore...so naturally the best snows would be a distance to the left of that track. Thx...that explains alot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:28 PM, OSUmetstud said: Ray, the 18z GFS BUFKIT for BED has 0.93"...all snow....but temps are 33-35F, verbatim. Yea, BL impedes accumulations to the tune of about half of what would be commensurate to that QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:27 PM, Arnold214 said: One of the other reasons why the GFS snow amt forecast may be "OK" verbatim is that that 700mb low tracks from BDL to BOS then offshore...so naturally the best snows would be a distance to the left of that track. It's basically a 6hr QPF bomb and then dryslots after 12z, but it looks pretty juicy during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:27 PM, Arnold214 said: One of the other reasons why the GFS snow amt forecast may be "OK" verbatim is that that 700mb low tracks from BDL to BOS then offshore...so naturally the best snows would be a distance to the left of that track. Shows mostly sleet .72 worth in my neck of the woods, good dynamics are needed. Not expecting much but it is close to being an isobomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, BL impedes accumulations to the tune of about half of what would be commensurate to that QPF. right...the good news is that sounding is cold...it's just a very tiny above freezing layer near the surface which should be able to overcome through heavy precipitation. The GFS has -15 to -20 omega through the snow crystal growth layer, which is pretty nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:17 PM, CoastalWx said: The soundings are pretty cold for you during most of the storm. That's more important to look at. The snow algorithms aren't always made to be taken verbatim..especially during anomalous events like this. I was also suprised to see max accumlations of like 8"...the way people were talking, I expected double that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:30 PM, CoastalWx said: It's basically a 6hr QPF bomb and then dryslots after 12z, but it looks pretty juicy during that time. This solution is going to change 22 times up until the event, so there's really no reason to hash out the details. Hell, there may not even be any reason to hash out any generalties at this point. Either way, this is probably going to put the 'ol rotten cherry on top of a tailpipe smokin' end to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:30 PM, CoastalWx said: It's basically a 6hr QPF bomb and then dryslots after 12z, but it looks pretty juicy during that time. Just to illustrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was also suprised to see max accumlations of like 8"...the way people were talking, I expected double that. This is what Scooter must have been alluding to with his progressive reference; hopefully that sw can avail of the additional energy rounding the nadir of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:34 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I was also suprised to see max accumlations of like 8"...the way people were talking, I expected double that. Take your 4" and like it. It is April 1st. (I understand what you were saying) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:35 PM, Arnold214 said: This solution is going to change 22 times up until the event, so there's really no reason to hash out the details. Hell, there may not even be any reason to hash out any generalties at this point. Either way, this is probably going to put the 'ol rotten cherry on top of a tailpipe smokin' end to winter LOL, but it's good to show people how to break down the solution I guess. Hopefully people understand the caveats of models this far out. Well everyone, but Kevin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:35 PM, Arnold214 said: This solution is going to change 22 times up until the event, so there's really no reason to hash out the details. Hell, there may not even be any reason to hash out any generalties at this point. Either way, this is probably going to put the 'ol rotten cherry on top of a tailpipe smokin' end to winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:30 PM, CoastalWx said: It's basically a 6hr QPF bomb and then dryslots after 12z, but it looks pretty juicy during that time. What do you think for the East Slope? Glad Ryan is expecting rain down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:37 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: This is what Scooter must have been alluding to with his progressive reference; hopefully that sw can avail of the additional energy rounding the nadir of the trough. Honestly....ignore the numbers for now, because as Mike said..it will likely change again.....and again. We're just having a little fun with the model disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:38 PM, weatherMA said: Take your 4" and like it. It is April 1st. (I understand what you were saying) I've said that I'm fine with 4-5" of pasts, but some seemed to be inferring that is was more is all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:28 PM, CoastalWx said: Looks like about 0.25" with maybe 0.5" on the Cape. Another possible solution if we have interference or a weak s/w. Thanks Scooter, I really appreciate it, purely from my work perspective...........seem like there is a lot to iron out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:38 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, but it's good to show people how to break down the solution I guess. Hopefully people understand the caveats of models this far out. Well everyone, but Kevin. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:41 PM, CoastalWx said: Honestly....ignore the numbers for now, because as Mike said..it will likely change again.....and again. We're just having a little fun with the model disco. Well, they are the only means by which to quantify the final outcome of a given soloution, which is crucial to discussing the run imo. I understand that it is highly unlikely to verify, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:41 PM, CoastalWx said: Honestly....ignore the numbers for now, because as Mike said..it will likely change again.....and again. We're just having a little fun with the model disco. This is what it's all about as a hobbyist I don't ever envy those of you who do this for a living...unless you get to meet Mish Michaels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:38 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL, but it's good to show people how to break down the solution I guess. Hopefully people understand the caveats of models this far out. Well everyone, but Kevin. Kevin already dropped trou and is currently atop the tallest tree in his yard awaiting the first snowflakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:39 PM, ski MRG said: What do you think for the East Slope? Glad Ryan is expecting rain down there. I don't know..we're pretty far out. So long as this doesn't cut through the Hudson, I'd say the risk is for some snow, but that's really all you can say at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:44 PM, Arnold214 said: Kevin already dropped trou and is currently atop the tallest tree in his yard awaiting the first snowflakes. Aren't you homeless right now?? Kevin's snowbanks finally melted. Are you in his shed where he hides icemelt from the wife?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:42 PM, CT Blizz said: What? Just kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Aren't you homeless right now?? Kevin's snowbanks finally melted. Are you in his shed where he hides icemelt from the wife?? I'm currently keeping warm underneath a pile of dead 'munks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:44 PM, CoastalWx said: I don't know..we're pretty far out. So long as this doesn't cut through the Hudson, I'd say the risk is for some snow, but that's really all you can say at this juncture. Well, astute posters like Kevin are conservatively tossing numbers like 18+" so I thought I'd give you a chance to out forecast him with a 24-36" snowfall but I guess you're going to take the wait and see approach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:43 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: Well, they are the only means by which to quantify the final outcome of a given soloution, which is crucial to discussing the run imo. I understand that it is highly unlikely to verify, though. Oh I know..you seemed a little concerned about the numbers being spit out...I just meant not to worry that much about it for now. I know you don't like to look at soundings much, but you can check them out on twisterdata. It's a nice reality check to everyone with 2m temp fetishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:48 PM, Arnold214 said: I'm currently keeping warm underneath a pile of dead 'munks. Food and shelter.Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 On 3/28/2011 at 11:50 PM, CoastalWx said: Oh I know..you seemed a little concerned about the numbers being spit out...I just meant not to worry that much about it for now. I know you don't like to look at soundings much, but you can check them out on twisterdata. It's a nice reality check to everyone with 2m temp fetishes. I was more concerned about the disconnect between the modeled reality and other folks apparent perceptions of\inferences regarding it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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