Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Time for a new thread as the last one is getting long and the 12z model runs are rolling out. Threat(s)is still there on all the globals as of 00z this AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Still don't think we resolve anything for this next event other then monitoring trends on this one for a few more days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted March 28, 2011 Author Share Posted March 28, 2011 Still don't think we resolve anything for this next event other then monitoring trends on this one for a few more days By Wednesday 00z we should have a pretty good handle on all the s/w's involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 When in doubt, go with the ensembles ... looks good to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 By Wednesday 00z we should have a pretty good handle on all the s/w's involved. That was my thinking, With multiple waves involved we are still going to have multiple solutions until closer in, Hopefully its the second wave that becomes the dominant one as the 1st one washes out or we may see nothing at all as they all end up to far east to effect anyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The more shortwaves that get caught up in this flow, the less likely it seems that we get hit with any storm at all. I don't think this is how it'll ultimately play out, but I could definitely see a scenario where all 3 short-waves coming one after another ignite low pressure systems that all track waay too far east for much impact in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 When in doubt, go with the ensembles ... looks good to me Some real consensus there...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The more shortwaves that get caught up in this flow, the less likely it seems that we get hit with any storm at all. I don't think this is how it'll ultimately play out, but I could definitely see a scenario where all 3 short-waves coming one after another ignite low pressure systems that all track waay too far east for much impact in the interior. With the lack of a lot of spacing between all of them it just complicates the matter if we get the wrong one to amplify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 First system less diggy, 2nd looks a little less diggy too but that may just may be my eyes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The more shortwaves that get caught up in this flow, the less likely it seems that we get hit with any storm at all. I don't think this is how it'll ultimately play out, but I could definitely see a scenario where all 3 short-waves coming one after another ignite low pressure systems that all track waay too far east for much impact in the interior. Definitely possible, but I don't think that will be the case. The modality shift of the NAO acts to sort of filter for the fastest growing wavelengths. More often than not in these cases, we see one coherent s/w take over in the flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Wont bother putting too much time into this yet. Its laid out pretty well. Too many s/w's, we wont know for another 40-50 hrs of our solution of choice it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Def coming in at a flatter angle in WA than the 0z run....good or bad who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 6z gfs was a snowlovers dream, cold and snowstorm after snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Some real consensus there...... Actually yeah. That's not bad at all IMO. Especially the GFS and ECM ensembles. The GGEM is a little off, but it has also been very consistent so I'm throwing them in there too. A consensus of the three seems pretty good ... and that just happens to give us a sizable snow storm too ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Actually yeah. That's not bad at all IMO. Especially the GFS and ECM ensembles. The GGEM is a little off, but it has also been very consistent so I'm throwing them in there too. A consensus of the three seems pretty good ... and that just happens to give us a sizable snow storm too ... yeah that was my take. it's 5+ days out...6 if you consider those are 00z runs. who knows how that plays out but can't argue those aren't close to each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Again, why can't we just get a bowling ball... All of these shortwaves must make pro-forecasters hit the bottle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 yeah that was my take. it's 5+ days out...6 if you consider those are 00z runs. who knows how that plays out but can't argue those aren't close to each other. The euro ensemble spaghetti plots at 850mb don't necessarily show that third low on the euro op. There are actually a few really wound up members that bring a 10C isotherm at 850, into SNE with the second low. The 0C 850 isotherm on the mean is se of the Cape, but they have a decent signal for the second low. The fact that the euro ensembles depict it as a relatively weak low, may still be due to the large spread on the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It seems the 49 or whatever pages of this thread disappeared?? anyway, the 66 hour 12z NAM has a powerful looking jet max with embedded 4 or 5 sub-set vortmaxes on the negative aspect of the emerging eastern trough (positive aspect of the emerging western ridge). Usually v-maxes damp in that L/W position, so that could be an impressive signal for what this run is going to do in these final 3 panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 It seems the 49 or whatever pages of this thread disappeared?? anyway, the 66 hour 12z NAM has a powerful looking jet max with embedded 4 or 5 sub-set vortmaxes on the negative aspect of the emerging eastern trough (positive aspect of the emerging western ridge). Usually v-maxes damp in that L/W position, so that could be an impressive signal for what this run is going to do in these final 3 panels. This is thread II Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 This is thread II lol - a smart man might have suspected that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 New nam has at least three main shortwaves with one trying to lift up at 84 but may get the boot. Very convoluted situation which I don't like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Again, why can't we just get a bowling ball... All of these shortwaves must make pro-forecasters hit the bottle This has a broad-based but easy conceptual explanation. We have a strongly negative NAO right now, and that suppresses the latitude of the jet down into where normally past the Equinox we have seasonal heights/thicknesses trying to surge up the coast with seasonal change. That causes the flow to speed up - in other word, not shortening long wave, wave lengths, but keeping them somewhat anomalously long. This is going to be true any year we have a spiked(ing) PNA with a tandemized -NAO. Normally, these indexes are relaxing (or rather - won't be concurrently sending cold signals at this time of year). That combination is causing the faster than normal flow over all (because of increased gradient), which is akin to having longer, long wave wave lengths. In order to get the bowling balls you really want a more neutralized mass field over all, such that as the polar mean jet is retreating it can, Ooops, strand a piece of cold mid level heights to wobble in the field beneath. It is one reason why this time of year (as Scott identified correclty yesterday) can be the more prolific as far as single event quantitative moisture, because if you have a resident cold mid level anomaly (bowling ball) that then gets a secondary insert of fresh DPVA, the result surface low will tend to be exotically deep, and consequentially proficient at heavy fall rates, due to huge thermal gradients. That was 1997 April 1 incarnate. You get these superior elevated frontal slopes along the thermal interfaces for nearly upright lift that taps into difluent jet structures and all hell breaks lose. This time, again ... with the PNA and NAO sending cold we are not in that kind of bowling ball prone arena. This really all is quite winter-like as a pattern, period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 New nam has at least three main shortwaves with one trying to lift up at 84 but may get the boot. Very convoluted situation which I don't like. Interesting - I don't see it that way... The NAM is noisy as a tool in any event, because of it's native finite grid. So - and I am not sure specificcally what you are looking at - it may be easy to focus on the wrong entity in the flow. From here, however, I am seeing one pig S/W over NE TX, with a lot of potential sped maxes preparing to phase in coming down the slop of the burgeoning western ridge.... Of course, lol - we're a couple of dorks for talking about the 84 hour NAM like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Interesting - I don't see it that way... The NAM is noisy as a tool in any event, because of it's native finite grid. So - and I am not sure specificcally what you are looking at - it may be easy to focus on the wrong entity in the flow. From here, however, I am seeing one pig S/W over NE TX, with a lot of potential sped maxes preparing to phase in coming down the slop of the burgeoning western ridge.... Of course, lol - we're a couple of dorks for talking about the 84 hour NAM like this. The NAM looks quite amplified to me at 84h....I see the separate s/ws but the system is already gaining latitude along the coast and that monster vortmax in NE TX would likely force this more north than anything.. However, as you said, 84h NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Be fun to see the first system deliver a swath of snows along and south of I-70 to the M.A. before kicking out east to the fishes and then have #2 bomb up the coast. Between the two, the weenie fantasy of seeing spring snow cover from the Mason Dixon line to Maine might be possible for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 The NAM looks quite amplified to me at 84h....I see the separate s/ws but the system is already gaining latitude along the coast and that monster vortmax in NE TX would likely force this more north than anything.. However, as you said, 84h NAM. haha , yeah, "84 hour NAM" aside, completely agree... This looks like a lead wave capture scenario that is probably - extrapolating - going to explode like no one's business when the nose of all that difluence punches overtop the on-going lead wave. Could almost envision that almost having to slow down, too, given to the wind dynamics playing catch-up, feeding in, and more than less tugging a backward exertion on the deep layer vortex until said feed ceases... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 haha , yeah, "84 hour NAM" aside, completely agree... This looks like a lead wave capture scenario that is probably - extrapolating - going to explode like no one's business when the nose of all that difluence punches overtop the on-going lead wave. Could almost envision that almost having to slow down, too, given to the wind dynamics playing catch-up, feeding in, and more than less tugging a backward exertion on the deep layer vortex until said feed ceases... even though he doesn't want 12+ of paste.. I can can tell deep down tip is getting excited which should excite everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Welp, GFS rollin rollin rollin, man my ass is swollen, what a pain in the butt coming in now so we'll see if it hits on that 18z-like solution from yesterday. It would actually be a nice extrapolation for the la-la range NAM solutionl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I need Jerry to give a play by play of the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 I need Jerry to give a play by play of the GFS It will be interesting to see who stays in the game and who doesn't, although I don't give much hope for my area being too deep in the snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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