HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 It's up to 75 kt now. The JTWC maxes it out at 80 kt and brings it ashore in 36 hr well S of Chennai, at just under hurricane strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 It's up to 75 kt now. The JTWC maxes it out at 80 kt and brings it ashore in 36 hr well S of Chennai, at just under hurricane strength. C'moooooon 10 more knots. Verify my forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 C'moooooon 10 more knots. Verify my forecast! Did you make a forecast today? If so, how strong do you bring it ashore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Did you make a forecast today? If so, how strong do you bring it ashore? No, I'm off today. But from what little I looked at, I would have kept my forecast from yesterday... Cat 2 at peak intensity, then weakening to TS or even weak Cat 1 at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/blog/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/111225-28_thane_mimic_tpw_anim.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 http://cimss.ssec.wi...ic_tpw_anim.gif Wow-- looks like a huge trochoidal wobble there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Goofy question, when did they start naming BoB cyclones? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The latest JTWC warning now brings Thane ashore as a 65-kt Cat 1 very close to Puducherry (Pondicherry), a population center S of Chennai. Should be interesting to watch this unfold. It's not like Western Australia, where we're talking about towns of 400 people. This region has over 1 million people: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It looks like the easterly shear is already on the increase given the flattening of the outflow on the eastern quadrant. Given the amount of dry air starting to surround the system, I think the system is at peak intensity and slow weakening should commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It looks like the easterly shear is already on the increase given the flattening of the outflow on the eastern quadrant. Given the amount of dry air starting to surround the system, I think the system is at peak intensity and slow weakening should commence. Well, it got a little stronger over night-- now up to 80 kt-- and they now bring it ashore as a solid, 70-kt hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 You can see an eye poking through on the visible: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 I checked Weather Underground and there doesn't seem to be a weather station anywhere near Puducherry/Pondicherry, which strikes me as mega-lame, given the fact that this is a population center. They have an airport (PNY), but I'm not sure it's actually operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Closing in... The center will make landfall very near Puducherry: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 The new JTWC warning has it down to 75 kt-- so I guess the weakening process has begun. They have it ashore in 12 hr with winds of 60 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Radar shot of the approaching cyclone. Yeah, looks like a Cat 1: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 It's still offshore and it's weakened to 60 kt, as per the new JTWC warning. Blah-- I don't care about it anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Interestingly, Thane is making landfall as a 65-kt hurricane. I guess the intensity bumped back up. The new JTWC warning has it at the coast, near the town of Cuddalore, with winds of 65 kt: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 A friend shared these surface obs with me-- from two towns near the landfall point: PUDUCHERRY (43331) REPORTED MSLP OF 991.7 HPA AND WIND 020/68 KNOTS AND CUDDALORE (43329) REPORTED LOWEST MSLP 997.6 HPA, WIND 340/62 KNOTS. If those obs are legit and those are 10-min-average winds, then Thane was a bit stronger than the operationally assessed 65 kt (1-min). But I'm not sure I buy those wind obs, honestly. They seem rather robust, given the cyclone's so-so satellite and radar presentations. Also, these pressures don't make a whole lot of sense: the center crossed the coast near or just S of Cuddalore-- so Cuddalore should have had a lower pressure than Puducherry, which is a good 10 mi further N. I'm trying to find out more Re: these readings (for my own benefit, since obviously no one else cares about this one-- not even the thread starter ). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 To continue this lonely conversation with myself... It looks like the JTWC might have underestimated the cyclone a bit. The first video (from 28storms) shows the IR and radar imagery up to landfall, and they seem to suggest at least a solid mid-range Cat 1-- perhaps stronger. And for what it's worth, India's IMD apparently estimated it much stronger-- at 75 kt (10-min). The second video is a newscast showing the moderate damage caused by the cyclone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 A friend shared these surface obs with me-- from two towns near the landfall point: PUDUCHERRY (43331) REPORTED MSLP OF 991.7 HPA AND WIND 020/68 KNOTS AND CUDDALORE (43329) REPORTED LOWEST MSLP 997.6 HPA, WIND 340/62 KNOTS. If those obs are legit and those are 10-min-average winds, then Thane was a bit stronger than the operationally assessed 65 kt (1-min). But I'm not sure I buy those wind obs, honestly. They seem rather robust, given the cyclone's so-so satellite and radar presentations. Also, these pressures don't make a whole lot of sense: the center crossed the coast near or just S of Cuddalore-- so Cuddalore should have had a lower pressure than Puducherry, which is a good 10 mi further N. I'm trying to find out more Re: these readings (for my own benefit, since obviously no one else cares about this one-- not even the thread starter ). Beats Irene with a 991mb pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Benilde looking more impressive by the hour. Unfortunately, the satellite image from the SSD website looks like it was sent from a dial-up modem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 31, 2011 Share Posted December 31, 2011 42 reported dead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted January 1, 2012 Share Posted January 1, 2012 I haven't seen any footage yet that suggests a 75-kt (10-min) cyclone-- which would be ~85 kt (1-min). Has anyone seen any good wind footage out of this? Wind footage aside, I have to say, the radar looked good at landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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