phil882 Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 Any reason why the JTWC isn't naming this system? Pressures have been down to 1001mb with it, it has enough deep convection and evidence of a well defined llc on microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted November 1, 2011 Share Posted November 1, 2011 JTWC has a formation alert on the Arabian Sea system. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Invest 92B could be a big deal for Chennai Wednesday/Thursday. I don't have much time to post, but model guidance is showing intensification through the week with some potential for RI before landfall near or south of Chennai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 Invest 92B could be a big deal for Chennai Wednesday/Thursday. I don't have much time to post, but model guidance is showing intensification through the week with some potential for RI before landfall near or south of Chennai. Wow-- cool. Details, pls. I see the JTWC has a Formation Alert for this feature now. P.S. I actually opened this thread just to drop a lolz. But then I realized there might be somethin' interestin' to discuss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calamity Posted December 25, 2011 Share Posted December 25, 2011 It's a large system, and it also looks like there's a twin cyclone attempting to develop from the same monsoonal trough in the South Indian Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The JTWC is issuing warnings on what's now TC 6. It does, indeed, look like Chennai is threatened, as the latest warning brings the center ashore close to the city "as a significant tropical cyclone". Current forecast landfall intensity is 60 kt, but I'm wondering if they might get more bullish in upcoming warnings. Curious to hear da fozziecast on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 I took a strengthening Cat 2 into Chennai this morning. I followed the Euro solution more closely than the GFS or UKMet, which is a nice compromise on track. I don't see any reason to keep it weak, either, given the environmental conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 I took a strengthening Cat 2 into Chennai this morning. I followed the Euro solution more closely than the GFS or UKMet, which is a nice compromise on track. I don't see any reason to keep it weak, either, given the environmental conditions. Oh, interesting. A 85-kt right into a city of 4 million people should provide some conversation around here. This isn't one of "my basins", but I'll definitely keep an eye on it. I notice the JTWC is really blah about it-- maxing it out at 55 kt and actually weakening it before landfall. Is that the GFS solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Oh, interesting. A 85-kt right into a city of 4 million people should provide some conversation around here. This isn't one of "my basins", but I'll definitely keep an eye on it. I notice the JTWC is really blah about it-- maxing it out at 55 kt and actually weakening it before landfall. Is that the GFS solution? The Euro is by far the most bullish model, but I can't see a reason not to be bullish. Rain bands are already starting to wrap towards the center, the environment is conducive, what's going to stop it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 By the way... The last hurricane-strength cyclone to hit Chennai directly was a Cat 1 in Oct 1994. An extremely intense cyclone passed just offshore in May 1990, weakening a bit before it made landfall much further N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 The Euro is by far the most bullish model, but I can't see a reason not to be bullish. Rain bands are already starting to wrap towards the center, the environment is conducive, what's going to stop it? Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 At least in the short term it is hard to see any reason why this won't continue to get better organized. Latest satellite shows a curved band becoming increasingly wrapped in the western semi-circle and overall conditions look quite favorable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Invest 92B could be a big deal for Chennai Wednesday/Thursday. I don't have much time to post, but model guidance is showing intensification through the week with some potential for RI before landfall near or south of Chennai. Yeah, I'm pretty wary of this one as well. The Euro has been super bullish on almost everything tropical so far this year, but a quick look at fairly weak shear (for now) and SST's support intensification over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 JTWC mentions unfavorable shear for anything but modest intensification. Might be a tad West of being perfectly situated, per CIMMS, but the shear doesn't look unfavorable at all. Close to forming an eye, just West of the warmer cloud tops, judging from IR loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Wow-- yeah. The Euro ain't messin' around. At 72 hr: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 And the 12Z sticks to its guns: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Wow, this must be very anomalous, we're only a few days past the solstice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The JTWC intensity is now up to 55 kt, and the latest warning now shows it reaching 'cane status. However, they still forecast weakening prior to landfall, and I'm getting the same vibe from the 00Z Euro, which seems to now also show a little bit of filling at the very end. By the way, the cyclone is named Thane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 The JTWC intensity is now up to 55 kt, and the latest warning now shows it reaching 'cane status. However, they still forecast weakening prior to landfall, and I'm getting the same vibe from the 00Z Euro, which seems to now also show a little bit of filling at the very end. By the way, the cyclone is named Thane. Yeah, the Euro and GFS both show shear increasing before landfall. I still took it to Cat 2 at peak intensity, but weakened it to a TS before landfall in Chennai on Friday night/Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Yeah, the Euro and GFS both show shear increasing before landfall. I still took it to Cat 2 at peak intensity, but weakened it to a TS before landfall in Chennai on Friday night/Saturday. Oh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 The new JTWC warning is out, and it shows remarkable continuity with previous warnings, bringing a 55-kt cyclone ashore near Chennai in a couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Looks a lot like yesterday's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Thane is now up to 60 kt, as per the JTWC. The forecast remains the same: after briefly hitting 'cane status, it should weaken to ~50 kt at landfall near Chennai. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Wow, this must be very anomalous, we're only a few days past the solstice! Not really, storms in December may be infrequent but not rare in the NIO which has an oddball distribution of cyclones. When dealing with WPAC/NIO/SIO/SPAC, one has to forget somewhat about the usual distribution of storms that we see in the ATL and EPAC. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 27, 2011 Share Posted December 27, 2011 Seems to be doing pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arizonasooner Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Hey this could be some nice rain for southern India during the off-season. I was in Bangalore a couple of years ago in December/March and boy they could have used some rain to wash away all the dust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 Thane is now a 65-kt cyclone. You can see a distinct eye in microwave imagery. The models are nearly unanimous now that this will move straight W into India-- the GFS is now on board-- and the JTWC's forecast reflects this. While they have it strengthening a little more in the short-term, they still show that weakening to below hurricane force prior to landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 28, 2011 Author Share Posted December 28, 2011 Thane is now a 65-kt cyclone. You can see a distinct eye in microwave imagery. The models are nearly unanimous now that this will move straight W into India-- the GFS is now on board-- and the JTWC's forecast reflects this. While they have it strengthening a little more in the short-term, they still show that weakening to below hurricane force prior to landfall. The storm looks pretty good right now... it should be interesting to see how much stronger it can get before easterly shear kicks in later. I'd guess 75-85 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 The storm looks pretty good right now... it should be interesting to see how much stronger it can get before easterly shear kicks in later. I'd guess 75-85 kts. Oh. You. It does look pretty good. The microwave images surprised me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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