am19psu Posted June 4, 2011 Author Share Posted June 4, 2011 Starting to get nervous that your gusty call for 98A to become a monster won't pan out? Yes. If shear ever drops, a low level center forms, and WISHE starts, I've got no problem with my call. It'll be a Cat 4/5. But the Euro and now its ensemble are keeping shear high through the period. The MJO and Equatorial Rossby wave signatures remain strong, but for whatever reason the Euro's not developing it and you have to respect it. I dropped my genesis potential from "high" to "moderate" this morning, but kept the strong words about explosive intensification if it forms. It seems like an either/or scenario to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Holy ****, this is going to be my biggest bust since Colin last year. MJO/ER FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 It sucks because I had totally informed my Omani contacts that this was going to be the big one.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Holy ****, this is going to be my biggest bust since Colin last year. MJO/ER FTL. Sorry to hear. What exactly happened? Why didnt it develop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Sorry to hear. What exactly happened? Why didnt it develop? Well, it's not a given yet, but the models are losing it. I don't have a whole lot of resources for the IO, but my guess is that shear ends up being too strong. The QPF fields show a lot of precip, meaning there is clearly going to be a lot of convection coming out of 98A, so it's not dry air or upper divergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 Holy ****, this is going to be my biggest bust since Colin last year. MJO/ER FTL. Hmmm. Well, you can't get 'em all. It must be challenging to forecast in a region with so few resources. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 5, 2011 Author Share Posted June 5, 2011 Yes. If shear ever drops, a low level center forms, and WISHE starts, I've got no problem with my call. It'll be a Cat 4/5. But the Euro and now its ensemble are keeping shear high through the period. The MJO and Equatorial Rossby wave signatures remain strong, but for whatever reason the Euro's not developing it and you have to respect it. I dropped my genesis potential from "high" to "moderate" this morning, but kept the strong words about explosive intensification if it forms. It seems like an either/or scenario to me. I basically left this forecast unchanged. It's still there in the GFS and about 40% of European ensemble members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 5, 2011 Share Posted June 5, 2011 You can see Euro spaghetti? Anyplace where I can see it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Models are all over the place this morning. I'm just staying with continuity and forecasting an eventual big storm moving west this week. It's probably going to bust, but it's no more or less likely than any of the other solutions out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Models are all over the place this morning. I'm just staying with continuity and forecasting an eventual big storm moving west this week. It's probably going to bust, but it's no more or less likely than any of the other solutions out there. Are models more unruly over there because of less data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 Are models more unruly over there because of less data? It's an inherently tough basin to forecast in due to the monsoon trough to the south and the elevated heat source to the north. It's easy to get a lot of dynamical instability due to high speed flow, which causes the models all kinds of problems. Talk about famous last words... Everything still looks like all systems go in the Arabian Sea. Some of the Euro ensemble members are going nuts with this thing. For once in the NIO, the track forecast looks straightforward. North to start over the weekend, then turning westward and heading towards Oman next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 It's an inherently tough basin to forecast in due to the monsoon trough to the south and the elevated heat source to the north. It's easy to get a lot of dynamical instability due to high speed flow, which causes the models are kinds of problems. Talk about famous last words... It's a humbling business, that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted June 6, 2011 Share Posted June 6, 2011 Are models more unruly over there because of less data? In terms of observations, it is more or less like any other ocean basin (all of the most trusted obs [rawindsones] are over land, so it is very heavy on satellite based obs). This can be a problem in the tropics (true for all basins) since most of the observations come in terms of mass (temperature and pressure), and we get very little good wind information (and it's very difficult to translate good mass information to wind information in the tropics). There is a good bit of ship traffic and several buoys (some of which are NOAA sponsored), but that only helps for the near surface. This region is notoriously difficult to forecast because of the monsoon (this is true both on a weather prediction time scale, as well as weekly/seasonal time scale). I'm sure Adam or someone can probably elaborate..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 6, 2011 Author Share Posted June 6, 2011 GFS is holding serve. Euro develops 98A, keeps it stationary, probably gets to Cat 1/2, then upwells cooler water and kills it in place in 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Nothing agrees anything. Slowed it down and called for genesis Friday or Saturday now. I'm sure that will be wrong too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 TCFA issued for 98A. GFS remains the only model going for it, but it takes a major into Iran/Pakistan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 TCFA issued for 98A. GFS remains the only model going for it, but it takes a major into Iran/Pakistan Oh, wow-- a major? Interesting that it's so bullish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Oh, wow-- a major? Interesting that it's so bullish. I'd bet nobody chases in Baluchistan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Pretty sure there has never been a major into Pakistan or Iran. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Pretty sure there has never been a major into Pakistan or Iran. An apparent Cat 4 came ashore near the India/Pakistan border in 1999. Lord knows how accurate those data are-- but that's how it's shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Bumping this post, which lists all the 65-kt+ landfalls in the Arabian Sea in the last two decades. Not too much: Looking at the records for the Arabian Sea, I'm surprised how few 65-kt landfalls there have been in the last 20 yrs: just Phet 2010 in Oman, Gonu 2007 in Oman (Cat 2), an apparent Cat 4 near the India/Pakistan border in 1999, and some Cat 1 in India in 1996. Re: Phet, I'm seeing conflicting info Re: the landfall intensity in Oman, but it was most certainly a 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 An apparent Cat 4 came ashore near the India/Pakistan border in 1999. Lord knows how accurate those data are-- but that's how it's shown. Forgot about that one, but.....meh. doesn't meet the cat 4 eye test for sure. Iran is definitely majorless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Forgot about that one, but.....meh. doesn't meet the cat 4 eye test for sure. Iran is definitely majorless Ooooh, nice find!! I agree, it doesn't look like a Cat 4. But I could see a solid, Wilma-in-FL-esque Cat 3 (with that big, fat eye). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Where did you get the cat 4 claim from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Where did you get the cat 4 claim from? The official data. I use Jorge's site, which pulls the official (and/or JTWC) data for each basin: http://db.hellohelp.net/hurdat_storms/storm_search.php#map_top Unlike Unisys, Jorge keeps his data current (mostly ), and you can zoom in, etc., since the tracks are plotted using a Google API. Great research tool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 9, 2011 Author Share Posted June 9, 2011 The official data. I use Jorge's site, which pulls the official (and/or JTWC) data for each basin: http://db.hellohelp.net/hurdat_storms/storm_search.php#map_top Unlike Unisys, Jorge keeps his data current (mostly ), and you can zoom in, etc., since the tracks are plotted using a Google API. Great research tool! Jorge, if you're around, are you using the IBTrACS data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Jorge, if you're around, are you using the IBTrACS data? Yes, I am. For the basins in charge of the NHC I also use the hurdata directly from them ( if you specify Atlantic basin, the data is from the NHC directly, for example, if the search is multibasin, then I use IBTrACS ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 The official data. I use Jorge's site, which pulls the official (and/or JTWC) data for each basin: http://db.hellohelp....rch.php#map_top Unlike Unisys, Jorge keeps his data current (mostly ), and you can zoom in, etc., since the tracks are plotted using a Google API. Great research tool! I am looking around the web and I don't see any other reference to it being a cat 4...that's why I was confused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 I am looking around the web and I don't see any other reference to it being a cat 4...that's why I was confused It won't be referred to that way in any regional documentation, since they don't use the SS scale, and the JTWC doesn't specifically reference the SS scale, either-- and probably no American institutions that use the SS scale have issued any literature on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 It won't be referred to that way in any regional documentation, since they don't use the SS scale, and the JTWC doesn't specifically reference the SS scale, either-- and probably no American institutions that use the SS scale have issued any literature on it. It may be a result of wikipedia influencing web sites, but I havent seen anyone but jorge list it above 125 mph...not saying jorge's excellent site is wrong, just that i'm a little suspicious given the satellite presentation at landfall+the lack of corroborating documentation anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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