am19psu Posted March 28, 2011 Share Posted March 28, 2011 Invest 93B is up to T1.5 and looking better organized this morning. Shear is low, SSTs are warm and divergence aloft is strong. It's a monsoon low, so it will take time to organize, but there is a decent chance of development if it can stay south of 12N. Use this thread to discuss tropical cyclone development in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 29, 2011 Author Share Posted March 29, 2011 Very rare to get a TC in the NIO in March (climo says 0). April sees about 0.2 TCs in the NIO on an annual basis. Steve Thanks for the climo numbers, Steve. It's looking less likely this morning, due to interaction with the Malay Peninsula. Frankly, I was surprised when I started looking at this potential. The WPAC monsoon trough is extending in the BoB, which has to be a fairly rare event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted March 29, 2011 Share Posted March 29, 2011 March 2000 is the only recorded TS in the NIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted March 30, 2011 Author Share Posted March 30, 2011 If 93B had ejected out into the BoB, it would have near perfect conditions for genesis and intensification right now. And if my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 26, 2011 Author Share Posted April 26, 2011 There is small chance of something forming in the Bay of Bengal Friday-Sunday. Doesn't look like much yet, but something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted April 28, 2011 Author Share Posted April 28, 2011 There is small chance of something forming in the Bay of Bengal Friday-Sunday. Doesn't look like much yet, but something to keep an eye on. Basically no change to this. I went moderate chance of development today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 Things are about to get real in the Arabian Sea. The MJO is about to pop over 60-75E and sit there for about 10 days. Model tracks take the low that spins up Friday/Saturday westward towards Oman in the medium range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 Hey, cool thread. I didn't even know about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2011 Share Posted May 31, 2011 When is the last significant cyclone to strike Oman/Arabian Pensinsula? OT- I've been to Oman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 31, 2011 Author Share Posted May 31, 2011 When is the last significant cyclone to strike Oman/Arabian Pensinsula? OT- I've been to Oman. Gonu in 2007 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 Everything still looks like all systems go in the Arabian Sea. Some of the Euro ensemble members are going nuts with this thing. For once in the NIO, the track forecast looks straightforward. North to start over the weekend, then turning westward and heading towards Oman next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 I can't help feeling a tad skeptical. It's something about the region. How strong a system are you expecting, Adam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 1, 2011 Author Share Posted June 1, 2011 I can't help feeling a tad skeptical. It's something about the region. How strong a system are you expecting, Adam? At peak? Cat 4/5. By the time it reaches Oman? Probably Cat 1 or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 1, 2011 Share Posted June 1, 2011 Interesting eye candy in the next few days, I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 I'm going to talk to myself in this thread for a while. Looks like genesis will be Sunday or Monday west of Mumbai, then the storm will turn to the west and intensify, likely rapidly. Expected DOA in Oman is around June 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 Hey, I'm here. I'll follow this one, so you won't be alone. Are you still expecting it to fall apart prior to reaching Oman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 I'm here as well, Adam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 Hey, I'm here. I'll follow this one, so you won't be alone. Are you still expecting it to fall apart prior to reaching Oman? Yeah, but I'm only basing that on climo. Models are not getting that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 2, 2011 Share Posted June 2, 2011 What is the deal with the expanded 850 mb winds well SW of the center on the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 What is the deal with the expanded 850 mb winds well SW of the center on the Euro? That's the monsoon trough/Somali easterly jet. It always sets up this time of year through summer (and why the NIO doesn't see TCs Jul-Sep). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 So what's going on with this one? I checked the latest imagery and it's kind of blah out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 So what's going on with this one? I checked the latest imagery and it's kind of blah out there. It's going to be blah until Sunday/Monday. The real action won't get going until after Wednesday next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 It's going to be blah until Sunday/Monday. The real action won't get going until after Wednesday next week. Ah, OK. I didn't read carefully and didn't realize we were talking so far in the future. I'll hush up a couple of days, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Looking at the records for the Arabian Sea, I'm surprised how few 65-kt landfalls there have been in the last 20 yrs: just Phet 2010 in Oman, Gonu 2007 in Oman (Cat 2), an apparent Cat 4 near the India/Pakistan border in 1999, and some Cat 1 in India in 1996. Re: Phet, I'm seeing conflicting info Re: the landfall intensity in Oman, but it was most certainly a 'cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Looking at the records for the Arabian Sea, I'm surprised how few 65-kt landfalls there have been in the last 20 yrs: just Phet 2010 in Oman, Gonu 2007 in Oman (Cat 2), an apparent Cat 4 near the India/Pakistan border in 1999, and some Cat 1 in India in 1996. Re: Phet, I'm seeing conflicting info Re: the landfall intensity in Oman, but it was most certainly a 'cane. Totally forgot about Phet last year. This thing should do something similar - explode over the extremely warm Arabian Sea waters, then weaken rapidly once it starts ingesting desert air from the Arabian Peninsula. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Thanks for this thread, I thought I was one of the only people in the world who actually tracked NIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 3, 2011 Author Share Posted June 3, 2011 Two runs in a row now with nothing in the Euro ops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 Two runs in a row now with nothing in the Euro ops... Starting to get nervous that your gusty call for 98A to become a monster won't pan out? On second thought... looks a bit more interesting on IR in the last few frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 3, 2011 Share Posted June 3, 2011 So what's cookin' with this baby? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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