am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 I'm to the left of JTWC, for what it's worth. Nice to see you posting in here, Greg. Don't be a stranger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 Exceptionally tight model track clustering for TS 7W. Getting the intensity will be the hard part of the forecast. Here are the ECMWF ensemble member tracks: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 As noted EC is predicting a Taiwan miss. GFS ensemble is agreeing. JTWC, in factoring NO Gaps is making a mistake if southern hemisphere predictions over the past few years are any guide. I'd be backing the former ensemble models (despite my idiotic rash of predictions of yesterday). I'm with you. GFS ops, GFS EnKF, ECMWF ops, UKMet ops, and ECMWF ensemble tracks are all in extremely good agreement this morning. The hard part of the forecast is when does the shear between 20-25N abate and, if it does in time, will RI occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 SSD page calls it Meari, but I don't know if that is official. Does look better, and -80ºC cloud tops always look impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Shear could well be an issue with an increasebetween 20…25 expected. PS: NO Gaps has close to zero credibility in the eyes of Australian weather watchers... it has been so incredibly wrong over the past few years compared with EC, Access R and GFS (most rate the premier models in that order until it gets close to the coat and Access rules). I don't think its the most popular model with a lot of people anywhere, but since it is a US Navy model, they seem to use it. IIRC, they even have a simplified version of the GFDL model that uses the Nogaps as the BC. I was commenting on a weird looking 18Z Nogaps run in the Atlantic thread, a storm the Nogaps developed seemed to create its own weakness in the big 500 mb ridge that allowed the storm to head NW right into the ridge, a solution supported by none of the other globals. I suspect the Navy doesn't have the budget to improve that model. It was probably one of the best back in the day, if I had to guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Not really impressed with the structure of Meari at this point. While convectively active, there appears to be multiple centers, with no real well defined llc. Its gonna take a little bit of time for this thing to consolidate. On the other hand, I'm thinking they might upgrade Haima back to a tropical storm. Sure its a lopsided tropical cyclone, but there are plenty of banding features to warrant TS strength, as well as a formative eyewall on the latest WinSat pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 are there any verification scores showing that this access model is better than the GFS...it sounds bootleg to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 are there any verification scores showing that this access model is better than the GFS...it sounds bootleg to me I've never heard of it in either the academic or professional circles (both of which have a lot of Aussies). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I've never heard of it in either the academic or professional circles (both of which have a lot of Aussies). yeah, i find it hard to believe that it could be superior to the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 are there any verification scores showing that this access model is better than the GFS...it sounds bootleg to me ACCESS-G is the new BoM global model, introduced Aug 17, 2010. I can't find more recent verification scores than Fall 2010, but, while better than the old GASP model, it's worse than the ECM, GFS, UKM, and even JMA. ACCESS-R sounds like a regional model, which if it's anything like the NAM or RGEM (and there's only so many way to configure a regional mesoscale model), it's most likely worthless for TC forecasting. http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2010/wu2.pdf http://www.bom.gov.au/amm/docs/2010/wu3_hres.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 ACCESS-G is the new BoM global model, introduced Aug 17, 2010. I can't find more recent verification scores than Fall 2010, but, while better than the old GASP model, it's worse than the ECM, GFS, UKM, and even JMA. ACCESS-R sounds like a regional model, which if it's anything like the NAM or RGEM (and there's only so many way to configure a regional mesoscale model), it's most likely worthless for TC forecasting. http://www.bom.gov.a...cs/2010/wu2.pdf http://www.bom.gov.a...10/wu3_hres.pdf ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 latest for Haima JMA: 40kt TS JTWC: 30kt TD what's with the disparity... imo, it does look better compared to yesterday, could be a TS to me, haha.... also, do you think the multiple LLCC will impact Meari's development...?? the storm looks so huge lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 22, 2011 Author Share Posted June 22, 2011 latest for Haima JMA: 40kt TS JTWC: 30kt TD what's with the disparity... imo, it does look better compared to yesterday, could be a TS to me, haha.... also, do you think the multiple LLCC will impact Meari's development...?? the storm looks so huge lol Seeing some of the wind reports come across twitter, I'd guess Haima is a 40-45 kt (10-min) TS. Not that it makes that big of a difference in terms of sensible weather. I think the multiple LLCCs will cause Meari to develop kinda slowly, but I'm not worried about the overall impact. If the shear relaxes north of Luzon by Friday, it should be plenty organized to go RI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 i'm looking at the shear too, looks like 20kts there... typhoon is likely imho; certainly gonna be interesting tracking this thing... i'm just wondering if it's possible we see two centers to detach completely and form different storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 Looks almost like two separate systems in a Fujiwara interaction. Having consumed soju in Pusan, RoK, I shall have to pay close attention, as this could be semi-personal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 I thought Meari would be better consolidated when I woke up this morning. It's still a broad storm with no well defined low level center. I backed off on my peak intensity forecast this morning. Still think it heads to the Yellow Sea on Sunday. Haima is an annoying waste of time that will probably hang around through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 23, 2011 Share Posted June 23, 2011 I thought Meari would be better consolidated when I woke up this morning. It's still a broad storm with no well defined low level center. I backed off on my peak intensity forecast this morning. Still think it heads to the Yellow Sea on Sunday. Haima is an annoying waste of time that will probably hang around through the weekend. In the WPAC? I don't believe it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 The best hope for Meari is that these southern rain bands continue to encircle the storm and eventually wrap into the center. It's hard to get any sense from the IR whether is happening or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 23, 2011 Author Share Posted June 23, 2011 JTWC have dropped it altogether They're just having website issues. Here is the 15z advisory: SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 008 WTPN32 PGTW 231500 1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEARI) WARNING NR 008 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 231200Z --- NEAR 18.0N 125.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 125.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 20.4N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 241200Z --- 23.1N 124.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 250000Z --- 26.0N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 251200Z --- 28.9N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 35.1N 124.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 18 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 41.8N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 TS Haima making 2nd landfall in NE Vietnam radar: http://www.nchmf.gov.vn/web/en-US/73/Default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 What a disappointment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 See, I can be a hater on chinacanes too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 See, I can be a hater on chinacanes too From the JTWC's discussion: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED. DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AND CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE LLCC, YET THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPANSIVE, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SIGNATURE, WITH SMALL-SCALE VORTICES ROTATING AROUND AND THEN MERGING WITH THE LLCC. A 240054Z ASCAT PASS PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF THE BREADTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE 35 KNOT RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARDS YET AGAIN. Sorry, but this baby is structurally challenged! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 From the JTWC's discussion: THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLCC) IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND ELONGATED. DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS CONVECTION HAS INTENSIFIED AND CONSOLIDATED CLOSER TO THE LLCC, YET THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HAVE AN EXPANSIVE, MONSOON DEPRESSION-LIKE SIGNATURE, WITH SMALL-SCALE VORTICES ROTATING AROUND AND THEN MERGING WITH THE LLCC. A 240054Z ASCAT PASS PROVIDES AN EXCELLENT DEPICTION OF THE BREADTH OF THE SYSTEM, AND THE 35 KNOT RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARDS YET AGAIN. Sorry, but this baby is structurally challenged! It'll probably reach typhoon status today as a poleward outflow channel develops... just in time to run into <26C water in the East China Sea tomorrow morning (EDT). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 24, 2011 Share Posted June 24, 2011 Tornadoes occurred in Quezon City and Iloilo yesterday causing EF0-EF1 damage. The Quezon City tornado hit in a well built affluent subdivision. Meanwhile heavy rains caused by the enhanced monsoon flow SW of Meari is causing widespread flooding in Manila and much of Luzon-this BTW is the most common effect a TC has on the Philippines. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 24, 2011 Author Share Posted June 24, 2011 Tornadoes occurred in Quezon City and Iloilo yesterday causing EF0-EF1 damage. The Quezon City tornado hit in a well built affluent subdivision. Meanwhile heavy rains caused by the enhanced monsoon flow SW of Meari is causing widespread flooding in Manila and much of Luzon-this BTW is the most common effect a TC has on the Philippines. Steve Good stuff. Thanks for posting, Steve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 the area isn't really "affluent".. although, yeah seen the damage pics it looks like EF0, big trees and roofs.. the one in Iloilo seemed weaker; an infant said to have been thrown by the wind for a few metres but survived... would've loved to see the radar images of those although PAGASA is not making them public... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Dading Cojuangco's home was damaged by the tornado. Considering their financial status, any development where the Cojuangco's live is affluent by Philippine standards. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 25, 2011 Share Posted June 25, 2011 Danding Cojuangco's home was damaged by the tornado. Considering their financial status, any development where the Cojuangco's live is affluent by Philippine standards. Steve Unless one mentions Corazon Aquino's maiden name and lineage, the Cojuanco name won't mean much to most forum readers. (UPDATE 4 - 8:20 p.m.) MANILA, Philippines - At least one person was hurt and five structures including the house of businessman Eduardo "Danding" Cojuangco, uncle of President Benigno Aquino III, were damaged after a so-called small tornado struck the New Manila area in Quezon City on Friday afternoon.Power lines and trees were also downed, while roofs were ripped off and vehicles were damaged along Poinsettia, Hemady, Ilang-Ilang, and Betty Go-Belmonte streets due to the strong wind. Cojuangco was not in his house when the "tornado" hit the area. Meanwhile, another weather disturbance also believed to be a tornado destroyed 24 houses and damaged 25 others in Barangay Guintas, Barotac Nuevo town in Iloilo early Friday afternoon. No one was reported hurt in the incident. Most of the children were in school while their parents were at work when the incident took place. State weather forecasters are still determining whether the weather disturbance that battered structures in New Manila was indeed a tornado Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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