am19psu Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 well 94W has dissipated according to JTWC update (2030z)... 97W medium while 96W remains low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 16, 2011 Share Posted June 16, 2011 lol you're so mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 16, 2011 Author Share Posted June 16, 2011 Looks like 97W won the battle between the competing centers. It will start to lift north today. Only a small window to develop, though. Once it gets north of Luzon, northerly shear will increase pretty rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 17, 2011 Author Share Posted June 17, 2011 Looks like 97W won the battle between the competing centers. It will start to lift north today. Only a small window to develop, though. Once it gets north of Luzon, northerly shear will increase pretty rapidly. Woo. TD 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 18, 2011 Share Posted June 18, 2011 having a hard time intensifying lol and have you guys noticed the data on the NRLMRY page are outdated?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 18, 2011 Author Share Posted June 18, 2011 having a hard time intensifying lol and have you guys noticed the data on the NRLMRY page are outdated?? Models have been keeping this system weak from the get go. No real surprise. On the bright side, SE China is fairly parched, so hopefully they can get some rain out of this. Yeah, NRL is working on it. Whomever is in charge of their IT department needs to be demoted. You can use the FNMOC page as a backup: https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/tcweb/cgi-bin/tc_home.cgi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 19, 2011 Share Posted June 19, 2011 Models have been keeping this system weak from the get go. No real surprise. On the bright side, SE China is fairly parched, so hopefully they can get some rain out of this. Yeah, NRL is working on it. Whomever is in charge of their IT department needs to be demoted. You can use the FNMOC page as a backup: https://www.fnmoc.na...bin/tc_home.cgi cool! thanks for the link... it sounds like you're also thinking it'll track across Luzon Strait instead of a more poleward movement?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 19, 2011 Author Share Posted June 19, 2011 cool! thanks for the link... it sounds like you're also thinking it'll track across Luzon Strait instead of a more poleward movement?? Yep. It's going to make a left here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 20, 2011 Author Share Posted June 20, 2011 A TCFA has been issued for 99W east of the Philippines. The large scale environment looks a bit more conducive this time around with stronger upper level divergence. Down the road, this will be a threat for Eastern China or Taiwan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 99W is going to take some time to consolidate into a strong inner core. I went for RI on Friday as a poleward outflow channel develops ahead of a shortwave, but that's obviously an uncertain forecast. Taiwan/NE China/Korea could all be affected by it Sunday/Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Winds are blowing at 35 kts SE of Hong Kong, so JMA reclassified TD Six as TS Haima. Rain still the main threat from this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Feel like a bit of a dick head.... but who the hell designates systems in the US... assuming 99W is the same system I have been rabbiting on about. The "invest" designation is a WMO standard. The BoM uses it as well (internally), with systems designated 9XP on the Pacific side and 9XS on the Indian Ocean side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Fair enough. I was pretty sure I picked this system prior to designation, but looking back at Rannb apparently no (bugger, i had determined not look at models or Raanb on this one.... seems both already had it). I was mentioning it to my clients last Thursday Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 What is set to make landfall is the equivalent to Anthony pre Yasi. Taiwan is going to get hammered. Wut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hello, random question for you guys-- I'm going to be in Taiwan and Hong Kong at the end of August, and I was just wondering what the climo likelihood of seeing a typhoon at that point would be? Browsing these threads over the years it seems like that's typically one of the most active periods with threats to Taiwan in particular occurring several times each month. Thanks bunches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hello, random question for you guys--I'm going to be in Taiwan and Hong Kong at the end of August, and I was just wondering what the climo likelihood of seeing a typhoon at that point would be? Browsing these threads over the years it seems like that's typically one of the most active periods with threats to Taiwan in particular occurring several times each month. Thanks bunches! Taiwan>hong kong. Taiwan averages like 5 brushes/hits a year and august is a good month for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Taiwan>hong kong. Taiwan averages like 5 brushes/hits a year and august is a good month for them. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Hello, random question for you guys-- I'm going to be in Taiwan and Hong Kong at the end of August, and I was just wondering what the climo likelihood of seeing a typhoon at that point would be? Browsing these threads over the years it seems like that's typically one of the most active periods with threats to Taiwan in particular occurring several times each month. Thanks bunches! Taiwan, 12 August NS landfalls from the period 1977-2009. 2 Majors, Talim 2005 and Sephat 2007 (Cat 3 equiv. hits) HK, 4 TS, no hurricanes same period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Great stuff WX, But would it be so hard for the world to come into line re category strength? The current situation is ridiculous. You need to stop harping on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 You need stop posting Fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 Nothing ever changes if nothing is ever challenged. You should know that... it's the essence of being American. Either way oooh, aaah Glen McGrath... W99 has potential. Nobody in the United States wants it changed. We've invested a lot of time and advertising so that our public is aware of what the different categories mean and how to respond to them. Drop the subject. Now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Great stuff WX, But would it be so hard for the world to come into line re category strength? The current situation is ridiculous. I agree with you-- it would be wonderful if everyone throughout the world just started using the SS scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 The authority in this thread has spoken. The topic is tiresome. Moving on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Boomer rolls over for a belly scratch... concedes that the entire world should go Saffir (for now on this forum). BTW... I hope you realise that boomer in Aussie terms does not relate to babies (or generations)... a boomer is a dominant male buck Kangaroo. Former Navy man. I thought a Boomer was a ballistic missile nuclear submarine. While we're hashing old tired topics, I know "hurricane" has North American indigenous origins, and later became incorporated into marine scales, ie, Beaufort, buf if BoM issues 'hurricane wind warnings' for TCs, wouldn't "hurricane" sound better than "severe tropical cyclone". Or, if one must be unique, call dust devils "dust devils" and use 'willy willy' for your hurricane force tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 21, 2011 Share Posted June 21, 2011 Boomer rolls over for a belly scratch... concedes that the entire world should go Saffir (for now on this forum). BTW... I hope you realise that boomer in Aussie terms does not relate to babies (or generations)... a boomer is a dominant male buck Kangaroo. Lets get back on topic shall we? 99W looks like it will be a big player in the next few days as a formidable cyclone... TD#6 continues to look meager in comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 99W looks like it will be a big player in the next few days as a formidable cyclone... TD#6 continues to look meager in comparison. Definitely. TS Haima will be nothing more than a rain event for SE China. 99W looks like the potential of a major typhoon heading right for the East China Sea/Yellow Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 21, 2011 Author Share Posted June 21, 2011 We have TD 7. I'd have gone much higher on the peak intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 Rotation isn't amazingly obvious in the IR loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I'm to the left of JTWC, for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 22, 2011 Share Posted June 22, 2011 I'm to the left of JTWC, for what it's worth. are you talking about the 00z track which is forecasting a landfall in Eastern Taiwan?? if so, is there a chance it'll clip NE Luzon?? yeah i'm also surprised at how "weak" they are forecasting this to become although the prognostic kinda sheds some light on the reasoning... from JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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