am19psu Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 P.S. This illustrates how far right JTWC actually is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 12z GFS still showing a hit on Kyushu... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 12z GFS still showing a hit on Kyushu... Still a Cat 1 typhoon like earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Still a Cat 1 typhoon like earlier? That's still my forecast, but it's hard to tell from the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 27, 2011 Author Share Posted May 27, 2011 Sigh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 27, 2011 Share Posted May 27, 2011 in other news, PAGASA has released the loop from their doppler station in Baler, Aurora (Eastern Luzon)... they noted it has a blind spot to the west because of Sierra Madre mountains... first time seen by the public as their radars are not linked on their website... http://twitpic.com/533mcf here is CWB radar (Taiwan) latest: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/eng/index.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Songda will pass over or near Kasgoshima Prefecture in about 12-18 hours, likely as a 60-70 kt storm. There might be a hurricane gust or two in exposed areas, but mostly winds will remain below storm force. Heavy rain has been dumping over Japan and will continue through tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Pretty strong winds over Okinawa now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Tanegashima Airport (RJFG) will probably be the site in Kyushu that picks up the strongest winds. Here is the wunderground page: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/hdfForecast?query=RJFG%2C+Japan and the location: http://maps.google.com/maps?f=q&source=s_q&hl=en&geocode=&q=Tanegashima+Airport,+Japan&aq=1&sll=32.879587,132.659912&sspn=6.041389,11.634521&ie=UTF8&hq=Tanegashima+Airport,+Japan&ll=34.651285,133.571777&spn=11.827014,23.269043&z=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 For Josh, the core has completely fallen apart. I can't find it on radar. Regardless, strong winds will continue along coastal Kagoshima Prefecture for the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 For Josh, the core has completely fallen apart. I can't find it on radar. Regardless, strong winds will continue along coastal Kagoshima Prefecture for the next several hours. lolz Pretty sad. Out of morbid curiosity, can you post the latest radar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 lolz Pretty sad. Out of morbid curiosity, can you post the latest radar? Here is the national link: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/ Click to zoom in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Here is the national link: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/ Click to zoom in Wow-- yeah. I can't even make sense of that mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Strongest winds are still around Amami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 28, 2011 Share Posted May 28, 2011 Wow-- yeah. I can't even make sense of that mess. It seems like the last 5-10 frames the radar images are just a forecast of the current radar echo positions. In any event, the system is quickly losing tropical characteristics as the upper level circulation becomes detached from the surface circulation due to the powerful upper level jet with in in excess of 70 knots near the circulation at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 28, 2011 Author Share Posted May 28, 2011 Not even close to storm force yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 29, 2011 Share Posted May 29, 2011 a video by James Reynolds in Miyakojima, southwest of Okinawa...: meanwhile, Naha airport reported a wind gust of 156mph yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 2, 2011 Author Share Posted June 2, 2011 There's a mixed Rossby-gravity wave moving through the WPAC right now, but the MJO is mostly subsident. Should be enough to pop off convection, but nothing really jumps out at me as a candidate for genesis, despite the nice blob this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 7, 2011 Author Share Posted June 7, 2011 Keep an eye out on 153... 16 It's possible in about a week. By that time, the MJO may propagate eastward enough to help instigate development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 8, 2011 Share Posted June 8, 2011 This certainly looks like it will be our next system when it gets into the South China Sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Looking better today. Certainly worthy of the upgrade to 05W status... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 9, 2011 Share Posted June 9, 2011 Not going to have time to get too interesting. Trough to the North mentioned in JTWC disco still seems to be inhibiting convection to the North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 10, 2011 Share Posted June 10, 2011 fully exposed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 13, 2011 Author Share Posted June 13, 2011 Looks like something will try to get going east of the Philippines late in the week. It's got weak model support and the upper levels won't be great, but the MT looks to be fairly active, so level support should be strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 14, 2011 Author Share Posted June 14, 2011 Looks like something will try to get going east of the Philippines late in the week. It's got weak model support and the upper levels won't be great, but the MT looks to be fairly active, so level support should be strong. Still looking marginal. Even if something does form Thursday/Friday, I don't think it will be particularly strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 two invests in W. Pac who will emerge victorious?? the other one in SCS given a "medium" chance by JTWC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted June 15, 2011 Author Share Posted June 15, 2011 two invests in W. Pac who will emerge victorious?? the other one in SCS given a "medium" chance by JTWC... My money is on 96W. LOL at JTWC (as usual) for moderate on 94W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 LOL at JTWC (as usual) for moderate on 94W. Yea... I have no idea why 94W this is given the highest potential for TCG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 What's happening out around 170 may also be worth keeping an eye on (140 now has an invest on it also), having said that, both are equatorial. PS: Bloody freezing in Cairns... 13C minimum twice this week! Might be untrained eyes, but the area South of their Hong Kong area 'medium', between the Philippines and Viet Nam, looks better to me. BTW, soft in Australia. Here in Houston, we've already reached 41ºC and it isn't even Summer and a Winter night can go to -5º. Less than 30º from the Equator, and nothing between us and Siberia but barbed wire fences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted June 15, 2011 Share Posted June 15, 2011 well 94W has dissipated according to JTWC update (2030z)... 97W medium while 96W remains low... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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