matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks about 75-80 knots. Pin hole like eye developing with deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Okinawa prefecture is like S FL latitude wise... they can realistically get a 5. They have,in fact, realistically come very close to doing so. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 Looks about 75-80 knots. Pin hole like eye developing with deep convection. It doesn't look quite that small, but there is no doubt the eyewall is becoming better defined. Well on our way to at least 100 knots, and rapid intensification might be underway and there is a chance it can get to super typhoon status if it can do it in the next 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 here's a newer one... JMA though still classifying this as a STS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 24, 2011 Share Posted May 24, 2011 here's a newer one... JMA though still classifying this as a STS.. LOL well maybe I stand corrected... looks like a much smaller eye on that microwave scan. Either way, strengthening is imminent. Also the storm seems to be moving significantly more west that forecast, and that could have some interesting implications to the Philippians if this continues for much longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 95 knots??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 95 knots??? Maybe a little aggressive, but it is T5.0 and SATCON at 22z had 97 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 JMA upgrades to typhoon... puts it at 75kts... it does seem to be moving west at the moment, pretty scary for those in Eastern Luzon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 They have,in fact, realistically come very close to doing so. Steve Flo 1990, for example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 rapidly intensifying now, Dvorak up to 6.0... 06z JMA increased to 90kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Sweet microcane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Looks like concentric eyewalls forming on the MW, though. That should chill the intensification trend for a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Looks like concentric eyewalls forming on the MW, though. That should chill the intensification trend for a little bit. Just checking the loop. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/flash-rb.html Are you still expecting a Luzon sparing turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Are you still expecting a Luzon sparing turn? Yep. A slight shift left from where I was yesterday, but still only fringe effects for Luzon (and probably heavy rain from a PRE-type situation). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 That is a hawt microwave, with that little core. Yummy. Total waste over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 The eyewall is starting to break up a little bit. Not particularly surprising given the previous MW image. Considering the lack of shear, it could close off again pretty quickly, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Warm spot showing up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Nice pinhole eye and great moisture envelope. Impressive after days of struggling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 The eyewall is starting to break up a little bit. Not particularly surprising given the previous MW image. Considering the lack of shear, it could close off again pretty quickly, though. Should be at least T6.0 if not T6.5 at 18z. JTWC will probably put the intensity around 115-120kt or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 25, 2011 Author Share Posted May 25, 2011 Should be at least T6.0 if not T6.5 at 18z. JTWC will probably put the intensity around 115-120kt or so. Or not. T5.5 from JTWC. Easily the lowest rating I've seen from 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 Or not. T5.5 from JTWC. Easily the lowest rating I've seen from 18z. It does look better though. I see JMA has it @ 90kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 25, 2011 Share Posted May 25, 2011 could it reach 130 today..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 could it reach 130 today..?? Dvorak is around T6.5, ADT is at T6.8. No recent MW passes to get a SATCON estimate. I'd probably put it at 130 kts right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Dvorak is around T6.5, ADT is at T6.8. No recent MW passes to get a SATCON estimate. I'd probably put it at 130 kts right now. JTWC went with T6.0 at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 JTWC went with T6.0 at 0z. Kept it at 115kts for the 0z advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 115 kts?!?! but it looks really good on vis and IR?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 beautiful...! JMA up to 105kts btw, very strong, and i assume JTWC will increase on 6z as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 26, 2011 Author Share Posted May 26, 2011 Songda is up to 130 kts, but still looks likely to miss both Luzon and Taiwan. Still looking dicey for Kyushu, but it will only be a Cat 1 at best as it reaches that latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 If we can get the eye to warm and dry out, this could make a run at Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted May 26, 2011 Share Posted May 26, 2011 Songda is up to 130 kts, but still looks likely to miss both Luzon and Taiwan. Still looking dicey for Kyushu, but it will only be a Cat 1 at best as it reaches that latitude... ...with a RMW of 50 nmi. Hawt!!1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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