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West Pacific Tropical Action 2011


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WTPN31 PGTW 221500

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 010

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

221200Z --- NEAR 10.3N 135.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 135.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

230000Z --- 10.8N 134.6E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

231200Z --- 11.2N 133.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

240000Z --- 11.7N 131.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

241200Z --- 12.2N 130.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

251200Z --- 13.7N 127.7E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

261200Z --- 15.9N 125.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

271200Z --- 18.9N 122.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

REMARKS:

221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.4N 135.6E.

TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTH-

NORTHEAST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 17

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//

NNNN

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WTPN31 PGTW 230300

MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 04W (SONGDA) WARNING NR 012

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

230000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 133.9E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 133.9E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

231200Z --- 11.5N 132.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

240000Z --- 12.1N 131.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

241200Z --- 12.5N 129.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

250000Z --- 13.2N 128.5E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

260000Z --- 15.4N 126.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY

NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

270000Z --- 18.1N 124.0E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

280000Z --- 21.8N 123.2E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

REMARKS:

230300Z POSITION NEAR 11.1N 133.6E.

TROPICAL STORM (TS) 04W (SONGDA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM

NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 230000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z,

232100Z AND 240300Z.//

NNNN

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Meh... looked impressive for a bit, but now seems to be struggling again due to northwesterly shear. We need to see that anticyclone continue to build on top of it. It looks like it might be feeling the effects of a weak upper level trough currently. The gfs shows this feature fading away beyond 24 hours, but in the immediate future the storm might intensify slower than expected.

2ikuntf.gif

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The forecast I put out this morning missed all land, but it was really just a consensus forecast. There's not a lot of spread in the models, but small changes will have big impacts on the forecast.

The intensity forecast is interesting. I took it to Cat 2 (1-min, S-S) by tomorrow, which might be aggressive, but I'm banking on eyewall formation to cause rapid intensification. I have Songda as a Cat 4 at peak intensity east of Luzon on Thursday morning, then weakening as it recurves and gets chewed up by the East Asian jet.

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STS Songda

This could end up being very bad for Japanese areas alreadyunder stress ( while undoubtedly not at its peak it will be over Sendai byMonday if models are correct… JTWC still gunning for 140knots and showing it likelystarting to head north)

EC ensemble for Monday (Aussie)

http://expert.weathe...053000_2218.gif

Latest track also shows a swing.

http://www.usno.navy...ings/wp0411.gif

Good news is that it'll have a ways of cooler water to pass.

2011141npsst.png

post-138-0-94646700-1306149265.gif

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JTWC seem convinced.

http://www.usno.navy...ings/wp0411.gif

GFS ensemble agrees

http://expert.weathe...052706_2306.gif

EC ensemble is however in your court

http://expert.weathe...052900_2300.gif

Computerised evidence or intellect? Which one does thelayperson believe (or is it like a patient diagnosing himself based on the webprior to seeing a doctor)?

For TCs, I would certainly trust the EC ensemble over the GEFS (at least in its current configuration)....especially in terms of development/decay/intensity (track is a different story depending on the type/size/strength of the system). There is a GEFS implementation on the schedule which will include a resolution increase (as well as upgrade to the model physics we implemented last summer).

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If convection continues to build in the southern eyewall, Songda is going to blow up.

20110523.0815.f17.x.91h_1deg.04WSONGDA.60kts-978mb-112N-1329E.74pc.jpg

Perhaps, although looks may be deceiving. The eye feature is almost certainly a mid-level eye, since the low clouds suggest the center displaced a little further west than the mid-level eye. Some northwesterly shear is still impacting the system, so I don't see this rapidly intensifying in the next 24 hours. However, just by looking at water vapor, the trough appears to be falling apart, so it won't be long until upper level outflow becomes well established over the system. I do think the system is destined to be become a significant typhoon, just not immediately until the low and mid level centers become better vertically stacked.

nlzv2q.gif

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In my opinion... microwave looks much better tonight (morning storm time) with the low and mid level centers more vertically stacked.

r7nj3r.jpg

CIMSS indicates shear has weakened over the system, and the beginning signs of a storm centered anticyclone are starting to form looking at the streamlines. In essence we should see a period of intensification the next few days.

v430nl.gif

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In my opinion... microwave looks much better tonight (morning storm time) with the low and mid level centers more vertically stacked.

CIMSS indicates shear has weakened over the system, and the beginning signs of a storm centered anticyclone are starting to form looking at the streamlines. In essence we should see a period of intensification the next few days.

Yep, good post, Phil. A legit microwave eye has formed this morning, so we should see a strong intensification rate today.

20110524.0723.f15.x.85h_1deg.04WSONGDA.60kts-979mb-124N-1302E.56pc.jpg

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I basically made a no change short term forecast today. Models shifted east towards the track I drew yesterday - east of the Philippines and Taiwan. Peak intensity should be Thursday or Friday as a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 (unless it goes through a prolonged period of RI).

The forecast for Japan is interesting. All of the models are plowing the system north or north-northeast instead of a full recurve. That would be Japan at risk for a landfalling, transitioning cyclone. It'd be like a Maritimes landfall in the Atlantic, but could still do some damage.

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I basically made a no change short term forecast today. Models shifted east towards the track I drew yesterday - east of the Philippines and Taiwan. Peak intensity should be Thursday or Friday as a high end Cat 3 or low end Cat 4 (unless it goes through a prolonged period of RI).

The forecast for Japan is interesting. All of the models are plowing the system north or north-northeast instead of a full recurve. That would be Japan at risk for a landfalling, transitioning cyclone. It'd be like a Maritimes landfall in the Atlantic, but could still do some damage.

Interesting. Does Japan ever get the really nice, pure-tropical type of cyclone-- or are they usually at least in the early stages of transition (i.e., widening wind field, weaker convection, etc.)? What is Japan equivalent to in the N Atlantic-- like the NC Outer Banks, perhaps?

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Pardon my well and truly established ignorancebut looking at mtsat west are we looking at a potential Fujiwara effect?

Not sure I follow. What are you suggesting it will Fujiwhara with?

Interesting. Does Japan ever get the really nice, pure-tropical type of cyclone-- or are they usually at least in the early stages of transition (i.e., widening wind field, weaker convection, etc.)? What is Japan equivalent to in the N Atlantic-- like the NC Outer Banks, perhaps?

Japan is at 30-40N, so you might think it is similar to the Outer Banks and the Mid-Atlantic States, but the tropics extend farther north in the West Pac, due to both higher SSTs and the thermal equator being farther north due the elevated heat source of the Himalayas. I'd say Kyushu is probably closer to N FL (like north of FLL or FMY) and Honshu is more like SC/NC. Still, they're not going to get a pure tropical landfall in late May.

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As dumb as it sounds this is what I was getting at. Degrees of separation.

It's been happening for some time. Two systems? Or when they get back together one very powerful one?

That's part of a feeder band from Songda, there 's no low level circulation there.

When two systems interact, they are not like Voltron and make a more powerful one once together, they are usually detrimental to each other (depends on size also), once one gets off the scene (by getting absorbed/shearing out/part ways), better conditions might arise, there might be some energy transfer, but if the surviving one strengthens it's mostly because it's not shearing out/competing with the other system.

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