patrick05 Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 anyway... it's starting to develop now... JTWC upgraded to Fair... ECMWF forecasting a strong system... NRLMRY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 anyway... it's starting to develop now... JTWC upgraded to Fair... ECMWF forecasting a strong system... NRLMRY Yeah, it's looking like some time late Saturday or Sunday for genesis. I took it towards the Philippines (instead of Okinawa like the GFS) as a TS this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I miss the old days when IR Channel 2 worked fairly well as a 'night visible'. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/flash-ir2.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 Not too shabby... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 It appears to have rotation on IR, but no clue whether that has worked to the surface yet, that looks like it is in good position to be ventilated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 It appears to have rotation on IR, but no clue whether that has worked to the surface yet, that looks like it is in good position to be ventilated. No, it's not to the surface yet, judging by MW imagery, but an upper anticyclone developed over it last night. It's only a matter of time now, assuming the low shear forecasts are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 19, 2011 Share Posted May 19, 2011 I can tell low level rotation on visible imagery (I use a latitude line as a fix so I don't get confused by relative motion), I used to have a halfway decent knack at seeing it at night before they messed up IR Channel 2, but how does microwave imagery tell if there is a low level center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 19, 2011 Author Share Posted May 19, 2011 I can tell low level rotation on visible imagery (I use a latitude line as a fix so I don't get confused by relative motion), I used to have a halfway decent knack at seeing it at night before they messed up IR Channel 2, but how does microwave imagery tell if there is a low level center? The very dark blue on MW images shows surface moisture convergence and you can infer the near surface streamlines from them. Once the circulation reaches the surface, you'll see dark blue "spiral arms" from the center. If you look at the MW Steve posted, it looks like there is strong cyclonic turning in the NW quadrant, but the rest of the circulation is kinda meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 The very dark blue on MW images shows surface moisture convergence and you can infer the near surface streamlines from them. Once the circulation reaches the surface, you'll see dark blue "spiral arms" from the center. If you look at the MW Steve posted, it looks like there is strong cyclonic turning in the NW quadrant, but the rest of the circulation is kinda meh. Just looking at morning visible, it likely won't be long till this thing has a closed surface circulation, with strong easterlies north and obvious westerly flow to the south of the MCV. It might not be particularly well defined yet, but I'm thinking 98W is on the threshold of TD status. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Just looking at morning visible, it likely won't be long till this thing has a closed surface circulation, with strong easterlies north and obvious westerly flow to the south of the MCV. It might not be particularly well defined yet, but I'm thinking 98W is on the threshold of TD status. It'll get there eventually, but it usually takes a bit longer for these disturbances that come out of the monsoon trough to develop a fully independent closed circulation. Unlike the Atlantic, where you are usually waiting for westerlies on the southern side, in the monsoon trough, you're usually waiting for northerlies on the west side and southerlies on east side for it to be classified as a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 It'll get there eventually, but it usually takes a bit longer for these disturbances that come out of the monsoon trough to develop a fully independent closed circulation. Unlike the Atlantic, where you are usually waiting for westerlies on the southern side, in the monsoon trough, you're usually waiting for northerlies on the west side and southerlies on east side for it to be classified as a TD. Ahh ok gotcha, although I still think I see a hint of some southerly motion on visible on the outer periphery of the convective shield to the east. Latest microwave still looks rather impressive with the MCV, although still no obvious signs of a surface circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Ahh ok gotcha, although I still think I see a hint of some southerly motion on visible on the outer periphery of the convective shield to the east. Latest microwave still looks rather impressive with the MCV, although still no obvious signs of a surface circulation. Yeah, you can even see it weakly at 7N 145E on that MW image. It's more impressive right now than I thought it would look at this time, so it's entirely possible it will beat the models to a closed circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 Yeah, you can even see it weakly at 7N 145E on that MW image. It's more impressive right now than I thought it would look at this time, so it's entirely possible it will beat the models to a closed circulation. And on that note... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 And on that note... Here is to hoping for classification by the end of the day (using Guam time) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 The very dark blue on MW images shows surface moisture convergence and you can infer the near surface streamlines from them. Once the circulation reaches the surface, you'll see dark blue "spiral arms" from the center. If you look at the MW Steve posted, it looks like there is strong cyclonic turning in the NW quadrant, but the rest of the circulation is kinda meh. is this the kind of blue spiral arms you're talking about?? taken from TS Aere: Looks like the circulation has become a bit better defined on microwave... although most of the convection is on the west side of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 20, 2011 Author Share Posted May 20, 2011 is this the kind of blue spiral arms you're talking about?? taken from TS Aere: Yep. Imagine the streamlines flowing parallel to the dark blue convergent areas and you can envision the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 TD 04W... could it be our first Typhoon?? JTWC NRLMRY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 TD 04W... could it be our first Typhoon?? NRLMRY ECMWF is a little west of the official track with more significant strengthening towards the end of the period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Not official, yet. Well, assuming JMA doesn't need no stinking tropical depressions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Hmmm… it will most definitely be a typhoon methinks Yap will get a high Aussie Cat 2 before this thing seriously heats up to cat 4 plus / hurricane http://www.prh.noaa....am/frTrack1.jpg Latest sat http://www.jma.go.jp...ment=0&mode=UTC Welcome back. Unrelated, saw a sad story from Australia, world's tallest former female professional basketball player, in a coma after a heart attack while she was pregnant. 7'2". I'll bet she could dunk. Any chance of doing some West Pac typhoon chasing during the Australian winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Some improvement overnight, but still lacking convection over the northern semicircle. I suspect another 24 hours will be needed, but the 00Z Euro was encouraging regarding development... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Looking better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Looking better... Not really super impressed with the convective signature right now... the circulation is on the every edge of the deep convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Upgraded to Tropical Storm 04W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 20, 2011 Share Posted May 20, 2011 Convection trying to form in the northern simi circle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 this one's struggling as hell right now, wth!? NRLMRY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 this one's struggling as hell right now, wth!? I think its just taking its time... there doesn't seem to be much in the way of a dry air intrusion, and shear appears to be low, although its on the northern side of an anticyclone, so even some weak westerlies might have a more significant impact on the developing circulation. However, with the deeper convection starting to concentrate near the center, I think we are one diurnal max away from getting this system back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 TD 04W struggling this morning with an exposed circulation and lack of deep convection. Not sure if this one will make it back to TS strength as some models suggest in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 Glass half full, last couple of frames, taking us to within the last hour, suggests the beginning of a comeback! Convection closer to the center, and -80º tops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 21, 2011 Share Posted May 21, 2011 TD 04W struggling this morning with an exposed circulation and lack of deep convection. Not sure if this one will make it back to TS strength as some models suggest in 24 hours. JTWC upgrades back to TS. JMA still a TD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.