patrick05 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 for red-taggers, what are the prospects for this storm re-intensifying over the SCS?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 This graph has some nice relative accuracy, you can see it underwent RI today, no questions asked. Image is a few hours old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 for red-taggers, what are the prospects for this storm re-intensifying over the SCS?? Depends upon the shear over the SCS. We are getting close to October which is when we start seeing shear there. At the moment JT is not going for much if any reintensification but depending upon what it looks like after coast out it could to some degree if all else is favorable. Meanwhile, the west coast of Luzon from Lingayen down to Manila is getting raked by strong winds in the monsoon flow feeding into the storm south of the center. Subic has recorded a gust to 64 mph with 45 mph 10 minute winds while Manila has gusted to 55 mph. This is very common with storms that follow a Baler to Poro Point track even if the actual bands don't come across because of the intensification of the monsoon flow caused by the passage of deep low pressure to the north. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 video from Manila Bay, jesus whole Roxas Boulevard is inundated... even the US Embassy is flooded and is closed until tomorrow... Credits to Paul Go anyway, nice little system popped up today... JTWC forecasting a strong typhoon by this weekend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 27, 2011 Author Share Posted September 27, 2011 No idea what to do with TD 22. Models barely even have it initialized. Looks like westerly shear will be the limiting factor in the short term. I took Nesat to Hainan as a Cat 3 then Vietnam as a Cat 2 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 I took Nesat to Hainan as a Cat 3 then Vietnam as a Cat 2 this morning. Meh... it looks like Nesat's inner core has been completely destroyed like most TC's do when they have a direct hit on Luzon. I'd say strong cat 1 at best (I know its at 75 knots now, but I'm gonna venture this is a high estimate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 Meh... it looks like Nesat's inner core has been completely destroyed like most TC's do when they have a direct hit on Luzon. I'd say strong cat 1 at best (I know its at 75 knots now, but I'm gonna venture this is a high estimate) Yeah, doesn't look likely to rebuild it at this time, but it seems to be about 50/50 whether these storms re-explode in the SCS. I don't know of a good way to forecast it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 Yeah, doesn't look likely to rebuild it at this time, but it seems to be about 50/50 whether these storms re-explode in the SCS. I don't know of a good way to forecast it. I think it's seasonally dependent. Later in the season conditions aren't as favorable in the SCS due to drier air from the mainland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 In other news, there is zero chance Nalgae is a 40 kt TS right now. SATCON was up to 70 kts at 4z and there is a clear microwave eye. This is going to be one of those midgets that goes asplode and JTWC will always be playing catch up to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 In other news, there is zero chance Nalgae is a 40 kt TS right now. SATCON was up to 70 kts at 4z and there is a clear microwave eye. This is going to be one of those midgets that goes asplode and JTWC will always be playing catch up to it. You have newer microwave than ~2000Z yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 In other news, there is zero chance Nalgae is a 40 kt TS right now. SATCON was up to 70 kts at 4z and there is a clear microwave eye. This is going to be one of those midgets that goes asplode and JTWC will always be playing catch up to it. To their credit they were rather bullish on the storm yesterday when it appeared to have westerly shear. They are way off with initial intensity now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 28, 2011 Author Share Posted September 28, 2011 You have newer microwave than ~2000Z yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 What am I doing wrong? I saw 2032Z...OK, that is an eye... if this is another clearing the cache deal I'm going to hold my breath until I turn blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 is it just my computer because every site i go to for sat images is stuck at 11:32 UTC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 28, 2011 Share Posted September 28, 2011 is it just my computer because every site i go to for sat images is stuck at 11:32 UTC... That number. 32. Everything I was looking at was 2032 yesterday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 29, 2011 Share Posted September 29, 2011 ^^ Nalgae: eye is now appearing on the VIS and JTWC is about to upgrade this to Typhoon...!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 really strong now and will likely peak a Cat 3 (110kts per JTWC).. to make landfall tomorrow morning (PhT) in NE. Luzon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Nalgae is now a cat 4 you really have to feel for those people on the other side of the world 2 majors in a week is insane! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 This will be a strengthening 4 at landfall..very close to where Nesat came ashore last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 Nalgae is now a cat 4 you really have to feel for those people on the other side of the world 2 majors in a week is insane! You should see it when the Philippines gets REALLY active. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Why isn't JTWC classifying this as a STY when it's already at 130kt??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Why isn't JTWC classifying this as a STY when it's already at 130kt??? They are.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 The Philippine Inquirer had an Opinion piece discussing the reasons why Filipinos do not heed evacuation or don't launch fishing boat orders in Typhoon and flood situations. Among the reasons given were-have to protect my home from looters, it's not going to hit here and if it does it won't be that bad, the authorities are over reacting, and finally there's plenty of time to go. For the fishermen, it's more simple-if they don't go out they earn no money. Sound familiar? Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 The Philippine Inquirer had an Opinion piece discussing the reasons why Filipinos do not heed evacuation or don't launch fishing boat orders in Typhoon and flood situations. Among the reasons given were-have to protect my home from looters, it's not going to hit here and if it does it won't be that bad, the authorities are over reacting, and finally there's plenty of time to go. For the fishermen, it's more simple-if they don't go out they earn no money. Sound familiar? Steve How many people live right along the coastline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 The Philippine Inquirer had an Opinion piece discussing the reasons why Filipinos do not heed evacuation or don't launch fishing boat orders in Typhoon and flood situations. Among the reasons given were-have to protect my home from looters, it's not going to hit here and if it does it won't be that bad, the authorities are over reacting, and finally there's plenty of time to go. For the fishermen, it's more simple-if they don't go out they earn no money. Sound familiar? Steve Unfortunately they live in the most popular tourist destination of major tropical cyclones on the planet. I guess these people quickly forget what happened last year and the year before that and the year before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 How many people live right along the coastline? Millions and Manila is the New Orleans of Asia-except that it gets hit more often. I've seen the Central Valley turned into an Inland Sea by flooding due to typhoons and lowland flooding is a major threat in the Philippines. In the mountains there is the problem of landslides (one of the worst TC disasters was a midslide that buried a town which was triggered by heavy rains from a Tropical Storm). Although it's been 20 years, there's still the threat of occasional Lahars from Pinatubo. The Philippines gets it all from typhoons so the coastal population is not all important. Storm surges do occur but the offshore waters along the eastern side become very deep very fast so shoaling is not as much as factor as it is in the GOM. Surges in Manila Bay usually occur when the storm passes to the north with onshore flow developing as it did with Nesat. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 today is the 13th anniversary of zeb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted October 14, 2011 Author Share Posted October 14, 2011 This has been a craptastic season. Too much troughing over Kamchatka, imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 This has been a craptastic season. Too much troughing over Kamchatka, imo. persistent kamchatka trough + a heat wave over the pacific garbage patch + a crappy mekong delta signal IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Millions and Manila is the New Orleans of Asia-except that it gets hit more often. I've seen the Central Valley turned into an Inland Sea by flooding due to typhoons and lowland flooding is a major threat in the Philippines. In the mountains there is the problem of landslides (one of the worst TC disasters was a midslide that buried a town which was triggered by heavy rains from a Tropical Storm). Although it's been 20 years, there's still the threat of occasional Lahars from Pinatubo. The Philippines gets it all from typhoons so the coastal population is not all important. Storm surges do occur but the offshore waters along the eastern side become very deep very fast so shoaling is not as much as factor as it is in the GOM. Surges in Manila Bay usually occur when the storm passes to the north with onshore flow developing as it did with Nesat. Steve I'd think Manila would be semi-protected because most storms would be coming from the East, and would have crossed the Sierra before the winds were directly into Manila Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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