Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Isn't that 10-min? That would be ~110kts 1-min. I forget sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Doesn't exactly look like a major to me, honestly. But I'm no expert. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Doesn't exactly look like a major to me, honestly. But I'm no expert. Eye has been filling recently, it looked a lot better a few hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 Eye has been filling recently, it looked a lot better a few hours ago. Yep. The raw T-number is down to 4.7 (which of course doesn't mean anything). Westerly shear will pick up between now and landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The convective asymmetry in the inner band region has increased during the last few microwave scans, with very little convection now occurring in the western semicircle. The eyewall is still closed off, but it should open up over the next few hours (perhaps right now given the deteriorating IR appearance), and Roke should weaken pretty substantially before landfall in Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 No. The US Navy discontinued operational recon in 1987. Since then, there have been some research missions and Taiwan will fly storms that might affect them, but otherwise, there is no recon in the basin. A slight correction-the US AIR FORCE ended operational recon in 1987-the Navy ended theirs much, much sooner than that. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 The video synopsis on the Hurricane HD app by Robert Speta is very ominous and devastating to Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Nice discussion http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp1811prog.txt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 85 gust to120 25 inches of rain Radar http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Making landfall soon. Right eyewall is holding on, but SW side of the storm looks a little crappy. Still a solid CAT1 http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=210 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Making landfall soon. Right eyewall is holding on, but SW side of the storm looks a little crappy. Still a solid CAT1 http://www.jma.go.jp...ml?areaCode=210 definitely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 center has begun to fill on the radar... Hamamatsu, the likely landfall place, recorded a pressure drop from 973 to 952mb in an hour... i'm still not seeing typhoon-force sustained though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I believe the highest wind gust in Tokyo so far has been about 63 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I believe the highest wind gust in Tokyo so far has been about 63 mph. The highest sustained I found was Hamamatsu 35.5 m/s, about 79 MPH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I stumbled across this site the other day looking for Australian archived radar images and found this cool satellite loop of Typhoon Nanmadol on the weatherchaser website. Something to watch while we wait for the next WPAC system to eventuate: http://www.theweatherchaser.com/videos/201108-typhoon-nanmadol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 I stumbled across this site the other day looking for Australian archived radar images and found this cool satellite loop of Typhoon Nanmadol on the weatherchaser website. Something to watch while we wait for the next WPAC system to eventuate: http://www.theweathe...yphoon-nanmadol gotta laugh at Talas struggling to consolidate... anyway, the next system might not be far behind-just looking at 98W appearance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alby_14 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 gotta laugh at Talas struggling to consolidate... anyway, the next system might not be far behind-just looking at 98W appearance... Looks good on IR and is heading into an area of favourable conditions for strengthening. Quite a large system also, typical of the WPAC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 23, 2011 Author Share Posted September 23, 2011 Invest 98W will become a tropical storm today and head westward over the next ten days. Looks like it could be a significant threat to Luzon then SE China, possibly Hong Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 23, 2011 Share Posted September 23, 2011 JTWC very agressive with the intensity forecast for a change... 130G160 in 4 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 Sure looks like all systems go for Nesat, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 24, 2011 Share Posted September 24, 2011 wow, look at those cloud tops... you're right--it's just a wait and see at this point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Nesat facing mid-level dry air issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 Nice storm, Cat 4 landfall predicted for Luzon. Whats left of it, which is usually not much after it crosses Luzon, is supposed to hit Hong Kong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 25, 2011 Share Posted September 25, 2011 already a 75kt typhoon and still no eye?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Nesat has really been too big and bulky to rapidly intensify thus far, despite the Philippine Sea being a climatological RI hotspot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Nesat intensifying now before landfall... ADT values continue to climb.. too late now though for a Super Typhoon... this had so much potential... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted September 26, 2011 Share Posted September 26, 2011 Nesat now making landfall north of Baler which is reporting a 10 minute wind of 45 mph. Most of Luzon is getting some rain and flooding and landslides in northern Luzon will be the main problem. Since Manila, like Tucson and Phoenix, floods at the mere hint of rain, they will also have flooding there. The storm should coast out north of Poro Point near Laoag in about 12 hours. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Was really starting to get together at landfall... shame it took so long, but not surprising considering how large it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 a couple of radar images from PAGASA 18z 22z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted September 27, 2011 Share Posted September 27, 2011 Imagine if this thing had more time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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