am19psu Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 Is anyone actually familiar with Japan? This looks like a worst case hydrological scenario for them, but I don't know how much they can hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Is anyone actually familiar with Japan? This looks like a worst case hydrological scenario for them, but I don't know how much they can hold. JMA The heavy rainfalls in association with Typhoon Talas caused huge sediment disasters in Nara and Wakayama Prefectures. In these areas, the risk of sediment disaster is higher than usual because the landslides still remain along the rivers or on the slopes in these areas and they could run off even by a little bit of rain. Considering this risk, JMA has been tentatively operating with lowered the criteria of soil water indexes for its heavy rain warning/advisory for some cities, towns and villages in Nara and Wakayama Prefectures ( When the risk of a sediment-related another disaster significantly increases, JMA issues Sediment Disaster Alert jointly with the sediment control department of Prefectural Governments and Local Meteorological Observatories. The criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert are also lowered in the same areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 JMA The heavy rainfalls in association with Typhoon Talas caused huge sediment disasters in Nara and Wakayama Prefectures. In these areas, the risk of sediment disaster is higher than usual because the landslides still remain along the rivers or on the slopes in these areas and they could run off even by a little bit of rain. Considering this risk, JMA has been tentatively operating with lowered the criteria of soil water indexes for its heavy rain warning/advisory for some cities, towns and villages in Nara and Wakayama Prefectures ( When the risk of a sediment-related another disaster significantly increases, JMA issues Sediment Disaster Alert jointly with the sediment control department of Prefectural Governments and Local Meteorological Observatories. The criteria for Sediment Disaster Alert are also lowered in the same areas. Not a good situation http://www.jma.go.jp/en/warn/351_table.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 16, 2011 Author Share Posted September 16, 2011 I won't be surprised if upslope areas pick >>25" over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 here's a rainfall map I made for September 2 to 4... based on JMA weather stations (I probably tallied more than 100 stations)... the legend I used only goes up to 600mm+ because reports beyond that amount are really few and far in between.. I fully agree though with the very heavy rain that Talas has dropped, particularly there in the Kii Peninsula (Nara, Wakayama, and Mie)... highest reports I've seen are around 1300mm in Miyagawa, 1000mm in Owase and Mihama, 1100mm in Kamikitayama, 800mm in Tenkawa, 700mm in Kayumi... 900mm in Yanase and Fukuhara-Asahi (Shikoku)... i probably missed those stations that reported the highest though... NHK mentions a 1800mm report in Nara, that's almost 6 feet!! those same areas will like get the heaviest rain again... particularly there in the Kii Peninsula... anyway, Sonca is looking good today!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Hadn't looked at Sonca today. Looks good above, near hurricane strength (I'm no Dvorak expert, but when I see an eyewall...), a lot better than it looks like on conventional IR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Roke and Sonca are great examples on why microwave imagery is absolutely critical to identifying TC intensification. From a courtesy glance on IR you would think Roke is the stronger tropical cyclone, but by looking at the microwave its obvious to see Sonca is at hurricane intensity while Roke is still struggling a bit. Not that a Washington politician would ever care, but if we lost our current POES system, tropical meteorology forecasting would take a major step backwards as well as numerical weather prediction in general. Roke: Sonca: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Josh would love these microcanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 they're cool but still kind of lame. this basin has been slacking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 wow, only 50kts from JTWC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 wow, only 50kts from JTWC... Yea and they don't even have it intensifying into a typhoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 well at least JTWC upped Sonca to 75kts... Roke remains at 60kts.. btw, max sustained so far is around 27m/s, max gust of 45m/s and a minimum pressure of 976, all in Minami-Daito... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 TS just east of Tokyo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 wow, still looking good even at 36N latitude.. just completed an ERC too it seems... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Sonca still lookin good at 40N: Roke is also looking good with a nice eye.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Meanwhile Roke is up to Cat 3 intensity, after the JWTC didn't forecast it to become a typhoon at 6z earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 Meanwhile Roke is up to Cat 3 intensity, after the JWTC didn't forecast it to become a typhoon at 6z earlier today Good work by them (though to be fair I only took it to Cat 1) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/wpac/flash-wv.html Stumbling around like a drunken bull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 it looks so pretty!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 it looks so pretty!!! Looks like problems for Tokyo. By the way, nice low level swirl in the Bay of Bengal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 well yeah.. and that stationary front is already bringing lots of heavy rain across much of Japan--it's like a double whammy... let's just hope it weakens considerably today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 up to 115kt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 The track is ominous as its center is heading just of the west of Tokyo and Fukushima. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 up to 115kt Without recon, I don't know what to believe. Satellite estimates are ranging from 90 kts to 125 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Without recon, I don't know what to believe. Satellite estimates are ranging from 90 kts to 125 kts. I'm unfamiliar with how Japan handles typhoons. They don't have recon missions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2011 Author Share Posted September 20, 2011 I'm unfamiliar with how Japan handles typhoons. They don't have recon missions? No. The US Navy discontinued operational recon in 1987. Since then, there have been some research missions and Taiwan will fly storms that might affect them, but otherwise, there is no recon in the basin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 No. The US Navy discontinued operational recon in 1987. Since then, there have been some research missions and Taiwan will fly storms that might affect them, but otherwise, there is no recon in the basin. Every military in the world (slight hyperbole) flies the C-130 Hercules. The Japanese economy has been off the century, but you'd still think the could have a recon system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 JMA is high end Cat 2. TY 1115 (ROKE)Issued at 15:50 UTC, 20 September 2011 <Analyses at 20/15 UTC>Scale-Intensity Very Strong Center positionN30°55'(30.9°)E134°05'(134.1°) Direction and speed of movement NE 25km/h(14kt) Central pressure 940hPa Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt) Maximum wind gust speed70m/s(135kt) Area of 50kt winds or more ALL150km(80NM) Area of 30kt winds or more SE520km(280NM)NW370km(200NM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovintheWhiteFluff Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 JMA is high end Cat 2. tracks are completely different too.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 JMA is high end Cat 2. Isn't that 10-min? That would be ~110kts 1-min. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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