patrick05 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yep you can see the developing ring on both microwave and radar... should be soon within the next 12 hours. Its a shame it doesn't look binary interaction is in the cards for these two systems anymore since Talas is expected to re-curve before we have the chance. This would be a particularly interesting case since the much stronger super typhoon is much smaller than the large tropical storm. These type of interactions are the most unpredictable because you have no idea if the more potent systems wins or the larger circulation. thanks for the inputs, i hope it intensifies again tonight (WPAC time) so it can get to Cat 5 before the ERC begins.. btw JWC now up to 135kts still Cat 4 but forecast peak winds now up to 145kts in 12 hours... yeah i was very curious as the DCI's effects as well, prob wont happen anymore huh... but apparently AM19 doesnt like those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's how an ERC is done, gentlemen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 26, 2011 Author Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's how an ERC is done, gentlemen. Take some flipping notes, Irene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 JTWC is going to miss this, Nanmadol is going to make landfall as a strengthening Super Typhoon in northeastern Luzon... wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's how an ERC is done, gentlemen. wow...that was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 That's how an ERC is done, gentlemen. About as fluent as it gets, right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NW quad is seeing some warming cloud tops with land interaction, but this one of the most impressive cyclones I've seen come ashore. Between the stall before landfall, powering through the ERC, and the rather unexpected jog towards the NW...some very interesting stuff went on with this system over the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 NW quad is seeing some warming cloud tops with land interaction, but this one of the most impressive cyclones I've seen come ashore. Between the stall before landfall, powering through the ERC, and the rather unexpected jog towards the NW...some very interesting stuff went on with this system over the past 24 hours. Definitely a top-notch landfall. That region of Luzon gets the world's best landfalls. Megi last year was even nicer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 WTF... why was I tracking stupid Irene when this was here? What a beaut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 eye filling now as it tracks close to coast... although this could still re-intensify once it exits Luzon.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Patrick, where did you get the radar images? Also, the cold cloud tops over western Luzon may spell trouble... there are some serious mountains in western Luzon and the tropical moisture bumping up against them could spell tremendous rains and flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nanmadol is a good example of how frictional land effects of mountainous islands influence the track of strong tropical cyclones. Irene stayed just far enough away that the core never got close enough to Hispaniola even though it did bend slightly left around the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Patrick, where did you get the radar images? Also, the cold cloud tops over western Luzon may spell trouble... there are some serious mountains in western Luzon and the tropical moisture bumping up against them could spell tremendous rains and flooding. those were taken from PAGASA's facebook page: http://www.facebook.com/pages/Dost_pagasa/164659536930397 they are still in the process of revamping their website so live radar images are not yet posted on their official site... right now, they only post radar images if they feel like to... last image they posted was 15 hours ago but according to their tweet, at 5:30am (PhT) the eyewall is now brushing Cabutunan Point (in the northeastern coast of Luzon) kinda like the peninsula sticking out if you look at a map)... i will post here as soon as they tweet a pic or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 those were taken from PAGASA's facebook page: http://www.facebook....164659536930397 they are still in the process of revamping their website so live radar images are not yet posted on their official site... right now, they only post radar images if they feel like to... last image they posted was 15 hours ago but according to their tweet, at 5:30am (PhT) the eyewall is now brushing Cabutunan Point (in the northeastern coast of Luzon) kinda like the peninsula sticking out if you look at a map)... i will post here as soon as they tweet a pic or something Wow, the new images look pretty cool already. Thanks for the updates Patrick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 radar image taken 3 hours ago, pretty useless now as the eye is well north of the radar site... big limitations with the coverage due to the mountain range along the coast.. this is Taiwan Radar showing some outer bands now working their way north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 LOL at the JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 i know... they really kept on insisting it'll turn NE... anyway, never monitored its landfall but i saw some gusts of up to 160kph (100mph) this morning EDT, just before making landfall (radar image): i'm becoming quite concerned now with Talas.. computer models slowly shifting the track westward with some bringing it towards Kanto later this week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I'm rooting for Talas. Looks kinda funky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 30, 2011 Author Share Posted August 30, 2011 I'm rooting for Talas. Looks kinda funky. Surge threat to Tokyo... will be a quick mover, though, so not much overall impact to Japan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Surge threat to Tokyo... will be a quick mover, though, so not much overall impact to Japan I'm still wondering if its ever going to make it to full fledged typhoon status... its had a half eyewall for the better part of the last 4 days. These Monsoonal circulations take forever even in favorable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 31, 2011 Author Share Posted August 31, 2011 Good thing kush doesn't grade us on our WPAC forecasts. Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Good thing kush doesn't grade us on our WPAC forecasts. Sheesh. Everyone would be in the negatives Meanwhile Talas is still not a typhoon... although IR shows that it *might* be getting closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 216 mile wide eye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 is it really an eye?? that is huge!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 JWTC no longer intensifies it into a typhoon... what a lame monsoonal cyclone. Nothing like wasting a week or so of favorable conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 1, 2011 Author Share Posted September 1, 2011 JWTC no longer intensifies it into a typhoon... what a lame monsoonal cyclone. Nothing like wasting a week or so of favorable conditions. I was just about to post the same thing. Waste. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 about to make landfall now... very heavy rain across Shikoku and Kansai Region... level 2 tornado threat (5-10%) accdg to JMA... strongest wind gusts so far around 120-130kph.. although pressure reports actually rising in some areas after bottoming near 977mb... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Talas killed more than 50 people and dropped nearly 2000mm of rain in some parts... JMA actually created a page dedicated on Talas... http://www.jma.go.jp/jma/en/typhoon_Talas.html anyway, now we have TS Roke, another head-scratcher in the long-term... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 15, 2011 Author Share Posted September 15, 2011 anyway, now we have TS Roke, another head-scratcher in the long-term... Looks like another soaker from Roke in about a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted September 15, 2011 Share Posted September 15, 2011 Roke looks better than a couple of days ago, when it looked a whole lot like TS Maria on satellite. Sonca looks sad as well. Usually there is at least one basin in mid-September that gives good satellites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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