patrick05 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 yikes! but that should bring some relief... it's so warm there right now, the hottest day of the year was recorded yesterday--36.5C... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Looping the satellite, the circulation is pretty poorly organized, and it might be coming onshore now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Looping the satellite, the circulation is pretty poorly organized, and it might be coming onshore now. The center is around 11N 127E or so. It's still pretty far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 The center is around 11N 127E or so. It's still pretty far offshore. If that is the case, it is pretty disorganized looking. It sure looked like some kind of circulation is moving inland on the satellite loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Disorganized indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 what do you think about the second system for next week... looks more interesting to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 what do you think about the second system for next week... looks more interesting to me... Well, the GFS is taking a typhoon into Tokyo, so yeah, more interesting. I've got genesis timed for May 12 and a WNW track to start (not exactly a big leap). Beyond that, I'm not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Well, the GFS is taking a typhoon into Tokyo, so yeah, more interesting. I've got genesis timed for May 12 and a WNW track to start (not exactly a big leap). Beyond that, I'm not sure. You're not really kidding. Of course, oceanic heat content may be an issue in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Well, the GFS is taking a typhoon into Tokyo, so yeah, more interesting. I've got genesis timed for May 12 and a WNW track to start (not exactly a big leap). Beyond that, I'm not sure. and now the EURO is picking up on it as well.. not that strong compared to GFS but it's there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Yeah, that's a good point, Steve. I'd imagine the topography of Luzon enhances that effect. Most definitely, but the Visayas (Central Islands) aren't exactly flat either. Early May through early June is the hottest time of the year in Central Luzon being the time of the intense heating prior to the onset of the monsoon. Temperatures actually exceed 38C (100F) in places during that period. The thunderstorms that occur can rival the most intense the US has to offer with damaging winds, large damaging surface hail, and, yes, even tornadoes. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 eerie forecast from the EURO tonight regarding invest 94W (new one)... a strong TS heading towards Visayas... yikes! still more than a week away though, i hope it recurves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Hotlink, and attached, for before, during and after comparisons... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 TD 03W forecast from JTWC; our first TS of the season?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 6, 2011 Share Posted May 6, 2011 Looks like the circulation has become a bit better defined on microwave... although most of the convection is on the west side of the circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 JTWC upgraded it to a TS... JMA not yet, maybe by 06z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 7, 2011 Author Share Posted May 7, 2011 Looks like the circulation has become a bit better defined on microwave... although most of the convection is on the west side of the circulation. Sorry, Phil, just saw this now. That MW is waaaay better than it was at 8z Friday. Convection is still meh, but it's obviously slowly intensifying. It's still only going to be a 50 kt TS at best, but at least it is getting better organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Looking a bit better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Looking a bit better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 The Japanese have it as a 40 knot storm, that might be a tad conservative from the recent satellite. Cold tops... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Looking better by the hour. ADT has it at 53 kts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted May 7, 2011 Share Posted May 7, 2011 Imo about 50 knots. The innercore is broad based on h85 above, but coming together. I expect this to strengthen to around 60-65 knots within the next 24 hours before landfalll as the "innercore" structure shouldn't allow for much more, but the outflow on the south and east side is quite good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 Aere was looking pretty impressive for a time during the diurnal max, but then convection temporarily collapsed due to some land interaction. We have some convection redeveloping now, but It likely will be too late to give it any hope of attaining hurricane status before it heads into Luzon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 8, 2011 Share Posted May 8, 2011 it's about to make landfall soon... winds still at 50kts accdg to JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 Aere has made landfall in the Philippines and will begin recurving today. The track will go east of Taiwan. Invest 94W is looking better this morning and could develop later in the week. Interestingly, the GFS remains the only deterministic model showing development. About 20-30% of the Euro ENS members are showing development. The track forecast is all over the place still, from the South China Sea to recurving east of Japan. The Euro ENS likes a track similar to Aere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 9, 2011 Share Posted May 9, 2011 Aere has made landfall in the Philippines and will begin recurving today. The track will go east of Taiwan. Invest 94W is looking better this morning and could develop later in the week. Interestingly, the GFS remains the only deterministic model showing development. About 20-30% of the Euro ENS members are showing development. The track forecast is all over the place still, from the South China Sea to recurving east of Japan. The Euro ENS likes a track similar to Aere. hello! i have a question.... on Sunday, just before Aere made landfall, many were forecasting it to move NW-ward inland... obviously it didn't and instead moved north, parallel to the coast... is it because of topography or the STR?? thanks anyway as for Invest 94W, the ECMWF (12z) is showing it as well now... JTWC giving it a "poor" forecast currently... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 9, 2011 Author Share Posted May 9, 2011 hello! i have a question.... on Sunday, just before Aere made landfall, many were forecasting it to move NW-ward inland... obviously it didn't and instead moved north, parallel to the coast... is it because of topography or the STR?? thanks I haven't done an in-depth analysis of the synoptics, but my guess is that that models were slightly too strong with Aere, which would have lead to more latent heat release and would have slowed the s/w trough moving through China (which is what is ultimately causing recurvature). The convection has really fallen apart over the last 24-36 hours, which wasn't modeled particularly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 10, 2011 Author Share Posted May 10, 2011 Aere is going to start ET today. It will come close to Japan as an XT on Thursday, but shouldn't cause more than a few squalls. 94W will take a while to develop. I'm not expecting anything until Friday at the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted May 18, 2011 Author Share Posted May 18, 2011 A rather blah invest is about 1000 mi east of the Philippines. It might develop over the weekend or early next week, but it looks lame as hell right now. Unfortunately, it's the only thing going on around the globe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 You're right about the blah globe. What piques my interest is that usually we start to see evidence of the Summer monsoon developing SW of India but as of yesterday there was little or nothing in the way of activity there. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted May 18, 2011 Share Posted May 18, 2011 good agreement on models though about a storm in 2-3 days... btw, the "cylcone tracks page" at NCEP isn't updating?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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