Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Gusting to Hurricane force now RODN 041538Z AUTO 04047G64KT 2400 R05/0650V1300 +RA BR OVC015 26/26 A2889 RMK AO2 PK WND 03065/1524 PRESFR SLP784 Wind from the NE (050 degrees) at 64 MPH (56 KT) gusting to 81 MPH (70 KT) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Most of the automated reporting has stopped, but its 54G81 mph at RODN. RODN 042132Z AUTO 03047G70KT 0400 FG VV003 RMK AO2 PK WND 04070/2126 SLPNO RVRNO PWINO PNO FZRANO TSNO VISNO RWY05 CHINO RWY05 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Naha reporting lighter winds but the pressure keeps on coming down... the eye is probably moving closer to the island now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 definitely near the eye now... Naha reporting 957hPa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 definitely near the eye now... Naha reporting 957hPa... And in the EPAC, that means a whopping Cat 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Surprised this isn't getting more media attention, since Shanghai is one of the world's largest cities and will be very close to getting a direct hit. Latest JTWC advisory has a 90kt cyclone just offshore on Sunday morning. However, their discussion also notes that the cyclone is expected to strengthen and that their track is to the right of model consensus: TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 45 NM SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A LARGE, RAGGED, AND CLOUD-FILLED EYE. A 050432Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SYMMETRICAL CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE MSI AND A RADAR FIX FROM JAPAN WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 80 TO 90 KNOTS AS WELL AS AN OBSERVATION FROM KADENA AB THAT INDICATES A PRESSURE OF 959 MB. TY 11W MAINTAINS GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL 05/00Z OBSERVATION FROM NAZE INDICATING EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 500 MB. TY MUIFA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AND TURN MORE POLEWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CHINA WEAKENS THE STEERING RIDGE. TY 11W IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS OUTFLOW IMPROVES INTO THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. IT SHOULD REACH A MAXIMUM INTENSITY JUST SOUTH OF SHANGHAI AND THEN BEGIN TO WEAKEN BECAUSE OF LAND INTERACTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DROP OFF IN THE GULF OF BOHAI AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER TAU 72, WHICH WILL CAUSE FURTHER WEAKENING. TY 11W WILL DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE INITIAL 72 HOURS AND THEN BEGIN TO SPREAD, ALTHOUGH ALL MODELS THEN TRACK THE SYSTEM INTO CHINA. THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE UKMO MODEL, WHICH IS THE OUTLIER TO WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 12W (MERBOK) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// GFS and CMC have a landfall near or south of Shanghai while EURO keeps the system just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 it's rapidly weakening though... i don't get why models and agencies were still optimistic of a slight re-intensification from Muifa, it's barely a typhoon now... btw, Muifa really stalled in Okinawa yesterday, some areas reporing as much as 1000mm or 40in of rain!!! strongest gust report i could find was around 170kph or 108mph in the NW part of the island... Kadena base reported around 97mph max gust... an islet that is very open stopped reporting Friday morning just when the strongest of winds were about to come, i'm guessing they had the stongest winds there... lowest pressure was around 952hPa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 it's rapidly weakening though... i don't get why models and agencies were still optimistic of a slight re-intensification from Muifa, it's barely a typhoon now... btw, Muifa really stalled in Okinawa yesterday, some areas reporing as much as 1000mm or 40in of rain!!! strongest gust report i could find was around 170kph or 108mph in the NW part of the island... Kadena base reported around 97mph max gust... an islet that is very open stopped reporting Friday morning just when the strongest of winds were about to come, i'm guessing they had the stongest winds there... lowest pressure was around 952hPa... sounds like they got a pretty solid hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 JTWC has downgraded to a TS, but it is maintaining a good core. JMA is still a 65 knot typhoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 7, 2011 Share Posted August 7, 2011 Doesn't look purely tropical anymore. But it was a heck of a ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 8, 2011 Author Share Posted August 8, 2011 50 kt Muifa is making landfall near the China/N Korea border. Merbok is fishing. Yawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Hey Eddie, Please remove the Merc advert. Shall do. It is past its due. A-Rod has a Mercedes dealership down here. http://arodmercedesbenz2.reachlocal.net/service_center.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 sheared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 When is the last time a tropical cyclone made landfall in North Korea? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 When is the last time a tropical cyclone made landfall in North Korea? looks like it happens fairly often...not gonna click them all to figure out which one is the most recent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 cool how did you do that?!? btw, Muifa left 4 people dead in SK and 10 in NK... rainfall amounts around 50-150mm in the region... 13W's a number waster... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 11, 2011 Author Share Posted August 11, 2011 sheared garbage from the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 garbage from the start Not surprised in this basin of the super-loose gradient, of the 950-mb tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 looks like it happens fairly often...not gonna click them all to figure out which one is the most recent Looks like a lot of depressions, storms, and post-tropical deals. A casual glance reveals only one real 'cane-- a Cat 1-- in that mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 my basin wants some lovin too... we have TD 14W: nothing too fancy, yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 22, 2011 Author Share Posted August 22, 2011 my basin wants some lovin too... we have TD 14W: nothing too fancy, yet I have zero time for your basin's binary interaction nonsense this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 22, 2011 Share Posted August 22, 2011 you don't like Fujiwhara's huh; shame on you... anyway, i'm curious to see if the Euro's solution will pan out; haven't seen this type of interaction in a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 I tell you the JTWC graphics are the worst. They have been the same since the late '90's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 23, 2011 Share Posted August 23, 2011 Nanmadol seems to be competing with Irene here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 the WPAC has been under the radar lately.. well here's some Typhoon-porn for Nanmadol, bound to be upgraded to a Cat 5 STY by the JTWC later today--the third this season IIRC... eye close up (VIS) radar from E Luzon as of 2230 UTC (630pm EST) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 nice porn patrick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Nice!! Makes Irene look like crap Now there's a bonafide super typhoon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yup! still Cat 4-130kts according to JTWC but they'll have their 06z advisory soon so we'll see if they increase the winds... such a shame really that this basin is not getting any attention.. i remember TWC's coverage of STY Megi last year and it was amazing... can't blame them though especially when you have a potential Cat 1 barreling towards the NYC area... anyway latest porno for Nanmadol: perhaps an EWRC soon?? what do you think guys?? latest close up VIS some cooling of the cloud tops again, especially on the western flank; perhaps induced by the topography of E Luzon?? and here's another Doppler Radar shot from PAGASA as of 2am EST (06z) and finally a wide VIS shot of the entire WPAC Basin... a Cat 4 STY and a tropical storm (TS Talas) that could develop into a typhoon next week (JTWC saying monsoon depression)... absolutely amazing...!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 yup! still Cat 4-130kts according to JTWC but they'll have their 06z advisory soon so we'll see if they increase the winds... such a shame really that this basin is not getting any attention.. i remember TWC's coverage of STY Megi last year and it was amazing... can't blame them though especially when you have a potential Cat 1 barreling towards the NYC area... anyway latest porno for Nanmadol: perhaps an EWRC soon?? what do you think guys?? yep you can see the developing ring on both microwave and radar... should be soon within the next 12 hours. and finally a wide VIS shot of the entire WPAC Basin... a Cat 4 STY and a tropical storm (TS Talas) that could develop into a typhoon next week (JTWC saying monsoon depression)... absolutely amazing...!!! Its a shame it doesn't look binary interaction is in the cards for these two systems anymore since Talas is expected to re-curve before we have the chance. This would be a particularly interesting case since the much stronger super typhoon is much smaller than the large tropical storm. These type of interactions are the most unpredictable because you have no idea if the more potent systems wins or the larger circulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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