phil882 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 RIP pinhole eye. You were beautiful at your peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 ^ still a pretty impressive storm IMO...when this is like post peak is like you know you had something special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 ^ still a pretty impressive storm IMO...when this is like post peak is like you know you had something special yay for concentric eyewalls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 latest microwave: do you think it'll still re-intensify?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 This Muifa forecast is still the lulz. GFS takes it to Kyushu, Euro takes it to Shanghai. I'm taking it to Seoul. So confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 This Muifa forecast is still the lulz. GFS takes it to Kyushu, Euro takes it to Shanghai. I'm taking it to Seoul. So confusing. Cat 3 in Okinawa (JTWC) with US airman with cameras and cell phones could provide some good bendy plam U-Tubes, if the USAF doesn't force people into shelters. I know Okinawa is poor compared to the home islands, but I still think we get some major hurricane U-Tube footage. Not sure what the deal is with the -80ºC blob actually increasing its distance from Muifa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 1, 2011 Author Share Posted August 1, 2011 Cat 3 in Okinawa (JTWC) with US airman with cameras and cell phones could provide some good bendy plam U-Tubes, if the USAF doesn't force people into shelters. I know Okinawa is poor compared to the home islands, but I still think we get some major hurricane U-Tube footage. Not sure what the deal is with the -80ºC blob actually increasing its distance from Muifa. Right entrance region of a jet streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Under typhoon conditions, generally all non essential personnel are confined to quarters which would be barracks for single personnel, base housing for married personnel on base and at home in town for married and single personnel living off base. Essential personnel generally include Command Post and Operatons, Communications, Civil Engineers, Security Police, Fire and Medical personnel and Met people in the weather stattion. AFRTS people are part of the Communications. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 just reiterating Steve's post, taken from Kadena Forces Support TCCOR 1 Caution: Destructive winds of 50 knots or greater are anticipated within 12 hours. Actual winds are 34-49 knots. All nonessential personnel will be released to their quarters at this time. DoDDS schools will close at this time. Staff and teachers return home or remain home. Base exchange, shops, Commissary, Shoppettes, Gas Station, Services facilities, Clubs, Restaurants, Recreational Facilities and Post Office will close. Movement about the base should be kept to a minimum. SFS will enforce "essential vehicles only"policy.(Reference Base O-Plan 32-1 "Base Disaster Operations Plan) TCCOR 1 Emergency: Actual winds of 50 knots or greater. All outside activity is prohibited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 You know it's a perfect ERC when you can track it on visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 UKM to Taiwan, ECM south of Shanghai, GFS to freaking Nagasaki. Whatevs. I'm tired of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 just reiterating Steve's post, taken from Kadena Forces Support TCCOR 1 Caution: Destructive winds of 50 knots or greater are anticipated within 12 hours. Actual winds are 34-49 knots. All nonessential personnel will be released to their quarters at this time. DoDDS schools will close at this time. Staff and teachers return home or remain home. Base exchange, shops, Commissary, Shoppettes, Gas Station, Services facilities, Clubs, Restaurants, Recreational Facilities and Post Office will close. Movement about the base should be kept to a minimum. SFS will enforce "essential vehicles only"policy.(Reference Base O-Plan 32-1 "Base Disaster Operations Plan) TCCOR 1 Emergency: Actual winds of 50 knots or greater. All outside activity is prohibited. http://www.kadena.af.mil/news/story.asp?id=123266284 TCCOR 3 now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 RI looks likely today with Muifa. Strong poleward outflow channel has developed and the ring pattern is almost there on microwave. Should be more satellite pr0n by tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 RI looks likely today with Muifa. Strong poleward outflow channel has developed and the ring pattern is almost there on microwave. Should be more satellite pr0n by tonight. Softcore already. Eye is starting to warm nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 RI looks likely today with Muifa. Strong poleward outflow channel has developed and the ring pattern is almost there on microwave. Should be more satellite pr0n by tonight. Textbook finish to an ERC..eye constricts again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 1004 mb already at Kadena AB. I hope they have something like ASOS. Doubt their gear would survive a direct hit from a high end Cat 3. http://weather.noaa....rrent/RODN.html http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/ROAH.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 RI looks likely today with Muifa. Strong poleward outflow channel has developed and the ring pattern is almost there on microwave. Should be more satellite pr0n by tonight. Looks like another ERWC has already started Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 2, 2011 Author Share Posted August 2, 2011 Looks like another ERWC has already started I love that ERCs and RI cycles have the exact same signatures. It makes forecasting so much fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 hmm, it seems like it... i like the subtitle, "will hit somewhere in Asia" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Cloud tops hae warmed and the eyewall looks like its eroding. IIRC, JTWC forecast was actually slight strengthening before landfall/near miss of Okinawa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 3 systems being monitored by JMA, lol what the heck?!?! and on Muifa, inner wall gone: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I think Muifa is strengthening again based on IR temps and appearance. It looked sickly for a while. Kadena-RODN 032055Z AUTO 03024G34KT 9999 FEW022 SCT041 27/25 A2931 RMK AO2 PK WND 02034/2050 RAB2008E2041 SLP924 P0000 60002 T02730255 56020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 991 mb at Kadena, and sustained winds are almost (not quite) TS force. http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/RODN.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 wind reports from JMA http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas/217.html?elementCode=1 strongest still in Daitojima, eastern side of the storm, around 70kph... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Still a big fight with the GFS and the EUro. Eurpo makes landfall in mailand China. GFS landfall much further Northeast in S Korea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted August 4, 2011 Author Share Posted August 4, 2011 And that somewhere in Asia is... the worldwide tropical cyclone landfall hotspot of NE China? At least there is model agreement today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 I saw an SR-71 Blackbear from the window of a MAC chartered lying Tigers 747 in March, 1985 at Kadena. Personal interest in a cyclone always adds to the enjoyment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Almost gusting to hurricane force at Kadena AFB, and yowza on that pressure. RODN 041355Z AUTO 03046G62KT 4800 R05/1100V1200 +RA BR OVC022 26/25 A2896 RMK AO2 PK WND 03069/1305 SLP806 P0116 T02620255 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted August 4, 2011 Share Posted August 4, 2011 Gusting to Hurricane force now RODN 041538Z AUTO 04047G64KT 2400 R05/0650V1300 +RA BR OVC015 26/26 A2889 RMK AO2 PK WND 03065/1524 PRESFR SLP784 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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