patrick05 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 very interesting case with TS Nock-Ten, don't you think?? i thought it was suffering from land interaction as it moved north of Camarines, and it turns out it is now quickly intensifying moving NW-ward... looks to be an eyewall developing?? JTWC seems to be underestimating this storm to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 very interesting case with TS Nock-Ten, don't you think?? i thought it was suffering from land interaction as it moved north of Camarines, and it turns out it is now quickly intensifying moving NW-ward... looks to be an eyewall developing?? JTWC seems to be underestimating this storm to me... The vortex is still tilted to the east a bit due to the shear. Still, ADT and SSD are both T3.5, so JTWC is indeed underestimating it. The track forecast for TD 11 is still the lolz. I have no idea at which latitude the storm is going to make the left turn back west, if it does at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The vortex is still tilted to the east a bit due to the shear. Still, ADT and SSD are both T3.5, so JTWC is indeed underestimating it. The track forecast for TD 11 is still the lolz. I have no idea at which latitude the storm is going to make the left turn back west, if it does at all. How real do you think the other TC the GFS is trying to spin up on the southwesterly flank of TD 11? I find it really difficult to believe that another system might try to get going between Nock-Ten and TD 11. Without that disturbance, I think that TD11 is a lot more likely to take a further north track and not bend back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 How real do you think the other TC the GFS is trying to spin up on the southwesterly flank of TD 11? I find it really difficult to believe that another system might try to get going between Nock-Ten and TD 11. Without that disturbance, I think that TD11 is a lot more likely to take a further north track and not bend back west. That ridge really builds in after Day 5 to the east. It looks so... weird. With the MJO in the right spot, I could see one of those Rossby wave train-type TCs spin up in the wake of TD 11, but the wavelengths are usually longer than what the GFS is showing. IOW, I don't have a clue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 How real do you think the other TC the GFS is trying to spin up on the southwesterly flank of TD 11? I find it really difficult to believe that another system might try to get going between Nock-Ten and TD 11. Without that disturbance, I think that TD11 is a lot more likely to take a further north track and not bend back west. That ridge really builds in after Day 5 to the east. It looks so... weird. With the MJO in the right spot, I could see one of those Rossby wave train-type TCs spin up in the wake of TD 11, but the wavelengths are usually longer than what the GFS is showing. IOW, I don't have a clue 12z Euro shows no binary interaction, just the ridge building in really strongly to the east and turns TD 11 back towards the Ryukyus. Such an oddball solution, but it's been that way for the last 3 days of runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 12z Euro shows no binary interaction, just the ridge building in really strongly to the east and turns TD 11 back towards the Ryukyus. Such an oddball solution, but it's been that way for the last 3 days of runs. Ahh I see that now... Although at this point I'm still going to be in the camp that it ends up moving more poleward than the global models suggest. The GFS's 270 degree storm motion at one point seems to at least be partly due to the binary interaction, and the ECWMF seems a lot more reasonable. Unfortunately, it looks like Japan may be under the gun again in another week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Nock-Ten is in a nice pocket of low shear with some warm SST's. In hindsight, I think I over-estimated land interaction inhibiting development. North side still is very ragged though. South China Sea looks favorable for re-strenghtening if it can exit Luzon in good shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 37Ghz from AMSRE (17z).... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 running out of time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Pretty clear to me that Nock-Ten is a typhoon right now. I'm sure JTWC will upgrade for the next advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 indeed, their latest Dvorak is now at 4.5 that would mean, i presume, it'll exit Luzon as a stronger system than previously thought... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aslkahuna Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 indeed, their latest Dvorak is now at 4.5 that would mean, i presume, it'll exit Luzon as a stronger system than previously thought... Not necessarily, studies show that the stronger the storm the more it gets knocked flat by passage over Luzon.. The storm is folowwing the traditional Baler-Poro Point across Luson which means that it will encounter some rugged terrain-particualrly around Baguio City. Steve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Not necessarily, studies show that the stronger the storm the more it gets knocked flat by passage over Luzon.. The storm is folowwing the traditional Baler-Poro Point across Luson which means that it will encounter some rugged terrain-particualrly around Baguio City. Steve ahh okay thanks for that; kinda like Megi last year when it passed through the Cordilleras (?) haven't seen you here in a while hhaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 first video from the Aurora area.. this is Casiguran, about 40km east northeast of the eye when it made landfall earlier this morning (Philippine Time)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 TD 11 is the lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 TD 11 is the lolz FWIW I like the 06z GFS solution a lot better than what it was spitting out yesterday. I always thought that 95W would have a significant influence on TD#11's track and initial strength for the next few days, and the GFS finally acknowledges the interaction between the two systems. It also seems like the pretty pronounced westward turn yesterday is being discarded more in favor for a NW track which would slam it into Japan pretty good. Bottom line, I think TD#11 will eventually develop into a formidable typhoon, but not until it completes the interaction with 95W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Muifa is still a ridiculously hard forecast. I'm still taking it NW through the Ryukus, but the model charts look like a bowl of spaghetti exploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Muifa is still a ridiculously hard forecast. I'm still taking it NW through the Ryukus, but the model charts look like a bowl of spaghetti exploded. I flat out said this morning that there is low confidence in forecasts being put out right now. Nock-Ten has been easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 I flat out said this morning that there is low confidence in forecasts being put out right now. Nock-Ten has been easier. Actual quote from my forecast this morning: Beyond that time, solutions diverge wildly, both between different operational centers and between successive runs of the same model. The intensity forecast remains a crap shoot. With poor track guidance, intensity forecasting is nearly impossible. The forecast follows climatology. Nock-Ten has been a breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 I should have just put this for my forecast: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I should have just put this for my forecast: And that's the most reasonable thing to do at this point. There is literally no consensus to be found. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 haha "Forecast follows climatology"! wish you could just say that every storm and not look at the models... what do you guys think about the Euro solutions though, taking it towards Northern Taiwan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Muifa has had some incredibly cold cloud tops as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Actual quote from my forecast this morning: Agree that is a very difficult forecast, but I'd suggest that as long as 96W stays intact as a system, that will disrupt the inflow and create shear over Muifa which will likely slow the intensification. In fact, I think its unlikely Muifa will become a typhoon before the merger is complete. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 Haikou reporting gusts of up to 80kph from NE... also pressures around 984mb image from CMA (posted in another forum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 seems to be on RI... 1.5/6hr in latest Dvorak from JTWC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Already well off the JTWC forecast track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 haha i know, and it's looking good too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 The 00z EURO is infuriating... I get into Beijing the 10th and Shanghai the 14th, if this typhoon comes in right before I arrive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 30, 2011 Share Posted July 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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