am19psu Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 Is the 61 kt a gust value or a 10-min value? And how far is that location from the center? Duh, it's a gust. I'm wrong. Miyazaki is on the east coast of Kyushu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 respekt the eyewalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Duh, it's a gust. I'm wrong. Miyazaki is on the east coast of Kyushu. OK. As a gust value, it seems about right. I'll bet the wind field is rather flat at this point-- meaning the swath of max winds is huge, and as you get closer to the center, the winds don't get much higher. respekt the eyewalls Wow-- I'm actually surprised at this. The radar structure is kind of beautiful-- all the components are there, it's just that the convection is weak. But there is an obvious and almost (~90%) closed inner eyewall still! I never would have guessed that based on the sad IR imagery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah, I was kind of shocked when I wandered on over to the JMA page and found such a (relatively) good radar presentation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Yeah, I was kind of shocked when I wandered on over to the JMA page and found such a (relatively) good radar presentation. Yeah. Here it is again, as an attachment, for posterity. It's interesting and surprising enough to save: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This just goes to show that IR imagery is not the best way for picking out structural/core details-- it's just too coarse. I mean, we all knew this, but this is a particularly stark example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 This just goes to show that IR imagery is not the best way for picking out structural/core details-- it's just too coarse. I mean, we all knew this, but this is a particularly stark example. Microwave does a pretty decent job at picking out the inner core features as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Should bring some good rains/winds to the Fukushima area. I wouldn't be surprised if radiation levels spiked in groundwater and coastal waters from runoff, but in the end this should clean things up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 look at the bright side, at least it won't be that bad for Japan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Ma-on will make landfall over the next several hours east of Kochi and is dropping prodigious amounts of rain across Shikoku. Yanase, in the mountains of course, has already received 29" of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Ma-on will make landfall over the next several hours east of Kochi and is dropping prodigious amounts of rain across Shikoku. Yanase, in the mountains of course, has already received 29" of rain. No doubt, insane rain rates with this one. Anybody know if any Category 4 or 5 typhoons ever made landfall in Japan? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Looping it, I think it was going to redevelop a semi-clear eye until some land interaction. I would not be surprised if there is an overcast but fairly calm center still. Looks like it skims the coast for a while, not sure it ever makes solid landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 I think these are sustained winds, but I'm not 100% sure. If they are sustained, I'm actually surprised we're getting 10-min averaged hurricane force sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 19, 2011 Author Share Posted July 19, 2011 Obs from Muroto: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-74372.html?groupCode=56&areaCode=213 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 19, 2011 Share Posted July 19, 2011 Obs from Muroto: http://www.jma.go.jp/en/amedas_h/today-74372.html?groupCode=56&areaCode=213 Pretty cool obs. The location was apparently in the eye, as the lowest pressure (963 mb) coincides with a short lull and directional shift in the winds at 21:00. Interesting that the highest winds (and hurricane winds) occurred immediately following the lull, on the backside. They're almost too textbook, these obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 20, 2011 Author Share Posted July 20, 2011 The next 3-4 days will be interesting from a scientific perspective. Ma-on appears to be nearly extratropical right now, both from satellite presentation and CPS parameters, but models unanimously start tropical transition later today as Ma-on separates from the mid-latitude flow. It is forecast to restrengthen tomorrow then undergo ET again over the weekend. Might make a nice case study for a Masters thesis some day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 20, 2011 Share Posted July 20, 2011 The next 3-4 days will be interesting from a scientific perspective. Ma-on appears to be nearly extratropical right now, both from satellite presentation and CPS parameters, but models unanimously start tropical transition later today as Ma-on separates from the mid-latitude flow. It is forecast to restrengthen tomorrow then undergo ET again over the weekend. Might make a nice case study for a Masters thesis some day. Yep, pretty interesting case. Kinda reminds me of Alberto (2000) Atlantic side when it nearly became extratropical, only to redevelop into a cat 2 storm as it dropped back south while executing a large cyclonic loop across the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 21, 2011 Author Share Posted July 21, 2011 Monsoon trough looks like it might get active this weekend. Euro and GFS are both showing a system lifting out early next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 System not far from the equator southeast of Guam has good rotation on the early morning visible. 00Z ECMWF has near Guam in about two days. Always nice to track those via their radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 also a TCFA posted for that invest (93W) just east of the Philippines... doesn't look like it'll get very strong although will certainly bring heavy rain to Luzon... just a question for 94W, is its proximity to the equator inhibiting the development?? i read that it has to be at least 5 degree latitude away from equator, but you're right it does look good on IR and VIS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 24, 2011 Share Posted July 24, 2011 also a TCFA posted for that invest (93W) just east of the Philippines... doesn't look like it'll get very strong although will certainly bring heavy rain to Luzon... just a question for 94W, is its proximity to the equator inhibiting the development?? i read that it has to be at least 5 degree latitude away from equator, but you're right it does look good on IR and VIS... Usually three degrees latitude is the cutoff point. They have a knack for developing closer to the equator in the WPAC than in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 TCFA issued for system south of Guam. Early morning visible shows an increase in organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 TCFA issued for system south of Guam. Early morning visible shows an increase in organization. TD 10 has also been declared. Looks like JTWC prefers the Euro over the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 Wanna see a wild track? Check out the 25/0z GFS and Euro for 94W in the 7-10 day period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 12z GFS is showing some sort of binary interaction between TD 11 and the wave currently off to its southeast. This is not going to be a fun forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 12z GFS is showing some sort of binary interaction between TD 11 and the wave currently off to its southeast. This is not going to be a fun forecast. I always feel sorry for the JTWC forecasters, they have an unenviable job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 25, 2011 Share Posted July 25, 2011 haha, talk about model consensus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 25, 2011 Author Share Posted July 25, 2011 haha, talk about model consensus.... My god, if the 12z Euro track for TD 11 was forecast for the Atlantic, the DC weenies would go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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