CUmet Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 There's some northerly shear... weak to moderate maybe, but maybe just the kind that makes cyclones slowly intensify, or plateau when around major status... high end 4 or 5 requires almost perfect conditions. OTOH, if the upper ridge providing the shear moves little, then Ma-on would encounter less shear down the road. Agreed, the asymmetry of the convection in the earlier microwave passes, not only in the eyewall but in the inner/outer band regions, have the classic northerly-shear look. It's been enough to slow intensification, but it appears that the shear has begun to abate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 The latest JTWC forecast recurves the cyclone so sharply that it misses Japan altogether to the S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Can't tell if the eye is tightening or filling in. About the JTWC track, considering how little the Euro has varied, I'd say it landfalls in Japan... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 I'm getting weenie tingles. A coast hugger, worst possible track. Effects hundreds of miles of coastline instead of tens. Hopefully it goes 50 miles inland or 50 miles out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 16, 2011 Share Posted July 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 16, 2011 Author Share Posted July 16, 2011 Still like the Euro solutions, especially since there is almost no spread in the ensembles. Still thinking landfall will be in Kyushu as a 85-105 kt storm on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Surprised Joint Typhoon Warning Center is still forecasting Ma-on to intensify considering it is now crossing over lower SST's and has never overcome the presence of dry air to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 Surprised Joint Typhoon Warning Center is still forecasting Ma-on to intensify considering it is now crossing over lower SST's and has never overcome the presence of dry air to the north. 28C SSTs aren't exactly cool and if the stupid shear ever abates, everything else is still all systems go for intensification. They're surely basing it on the dynamical models showing further strengthening over the next 24-36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 17, 2011 Author Share Posted July 17, 2011 Well, that ERC basically put an end to any serious intensification. It is totally blown out now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Well, that ERC basically put an end to any serious intensification. It is totally blown out now. I'm more concerned about the outflow on the Western side. Starting to look pinched, and I also suspect it won't get too much further West. Its going to be kind of like New England or North Carolina, if it can just make it due North the coast comes out to meet it. The Euro hasn't varied much in about a week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Definitely starting to get the look of a tropical system entering the mid-latitudes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 Its a shame too, because its finally starting to attain a symmetrical outflow presentation. The dry air never really got mixed out of the system, and was likely the main determent preventing this storm from reaching STY intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 17, 2011 Share Posted July 17, 2011 It'll probably rapidly unravel, just like cyclones usually do as they approach Japan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 I still don't understand any reasoning the JTWC has for significant intensification of Ma-on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like crap, in my opinion. P.S. Did Scott get in touch with you? I told him to! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 It looks like crap, in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Score one for Josh... still going to be a formidable and large storm when it hits though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 If only we could forecast when eyewall replacement cycles are going to go bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 P.S. Did Scott get in touch with you? I told him to! Si Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Glass half full, probably a high end cat 1 or a Cat 2 on the home islands, and its a sprawling system with gales 200 miles from the center. /always look on the bright side of life... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 If only we could forecast when eyewall replacement cycles are going to go bad. Adam, has there been any published literature about susceptibility of a TC during a EWRC to close proximity dry air? I don't have computer access currently (on my phone) Could that be a primary reason why some EWRC end poorly for the storm in the absence of significant shear. I have noticed EWRC tend to be much more successful (completion results in intensification) for storms in the Caribbean as opposed to the Atlantic, although SSTs could also be a factor here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 Adam, has there been any published literature about susceptibility of a TC during a EWRC to close proximity dry air? I don't have computer access currently (on my phone) Could that be a primary reason why some EWRC end poorly for the storm in the absence of significant shear. I have noticed EWRC tend to be much more successful (completion results in intensification) for storms in the Caribbean as opposed to the Atlantic, although SSTs could also be a factor here. None to my knowledge. When I was in Tuscon last summer, I tried to go to all of the ERC talks, but there just wasn't a lot there with the internal dynamics. Shear tends to cause the ERCs to take longer to complete, but beyond that, I don't know of any literature on them. Sounds like a good Google Scholar project today, if I get time. I think your SST/dry air theory makes sense, though. The more thermodynamic instability available, the stronger the updrafts can become in the secondary wind max/rainband, and therefore the more quickly inflow can get cutoff to the inner eyewall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 None to my knowledge. When I was in Tuscon last summer, I tried to go to all of the ERC talks, but there just wasn't a lot there with the internal dynamics. Shear tends to cause the ERCs to take longer to complete, but beyond that, I don't know of any literature on them. Sounds like a good Google Scholar project today, if I get time. I think your SST/dry air theory makes sense, though. The more thermodynamic instability available, the stronger the updrafts can become in the secondary wind max/rainband, and therefore the more quickly inflow can get cutoff to the inner eyewall. Cool. If there is in fact no study, I've still got a masters thesis that hasn't been decided yet My hunch is that the size increase that occurs during EWRC may also help to ingest dry air that was previously outside of the of the dynamic environment that influenced the storm when it was a smaller radius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZkDf1he-ZQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow-- that is a really cool mid-latitude cyclone. Bet it'll bring some decent snow to Japan. Noice, dude!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Wow-- that is a really cool mid-latitude cyclone. Bet it'll bring some decent snow to Japan. Noice, dude!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Folks on the W side of the cyclone will need to apply sunblock (SPF >15) if they venture out during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 18, 2011 Author Share Posted July 18, 2011 Folks on the W side of the cyclone will need to apply sunblock (SPF >15) if they venture out during the storm. Gusting to 61 kts (10-min) at Miyazaki. I mean, it's not Cat 5, but that wind is higher than I was expecting from the IR presentation. http://weather.uwyo.edu/cgi-bin/wyowx.fcgi?TYPE=sflist&DATE=current&HOUR=current&UNITS=A&STATION=RJFM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 18, 2011 Share Posted July 18, 2011 Gusting to 61 kts (10-min) at Miyazaki. I mean, it's not Cat 5, but that wind is higher than I was expecting from the IR presentation. Is the 61 kt a gust value or a 10-min value? And how far is that location from the center? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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