patrick05 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 well, my question is, when will it explode?? the northern half doesn't look too good imho.. JTWC lowered the peak intensity to 125kts, JMA also lowered to 100kts (from 105kts)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 They actually use 805mb relative vorticity as a proxy for max wind speed. I've never seen what the qualitative descriptions correspond to. Ok, thanks. It was an empiric observation, where I have seen the "Intense" remark being forecasted when other guidance has near hurricane force winds. But with the description you give, it would highly depend on the size of the cyclone, surface translation of the wind, etc., so it makes quite a vague label with a varying correspondance to 1-min winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 That seems odd that they even give text forecasts. I can still see UK Met SLP and 500 mb heights out to 120 hours for free on Alan's site, I can see that globally on AccuWeather, I'd assume NWS can see it in finer resolution than I can. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I think this one is just born to be ugly...like ed mahmoud or hurricane igor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I think this one is just born to be ugly...like ed mahmoud or hurricane igor Like you're male model material. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 14, 2011 Author Share Posted July 14, 2011 I think this one is just born to be ugly...like ed mahmoud or hurricane igor I'm wondering if this is the rare storm that hits Cat 4 without ever explosively intensifying (I know technically, it RI'd yesterday, but c'mon, that wasn't what any of us wanted to see) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I'm wondering if this is the rare storm that hits Cat 4 without ever explosively intensifying (I know technically, it RI'd yesterday, but c'mon, that wasn't what any of us wanted to see) That would be awfully boring. Anything below a cat 5 is unacceptable given that we are talking about the WPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 I still think we should see this storm get to super-typhoon status... its just taking its sweet time, because its inner core took longer to form due to its large overall size. That dry air to the north looks menacing, but the upper level flow really isn't letting that be advected into the circulation fully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Now I'm curious. At what level does Ma-On go from a cyclonic to anticyclonic circulation? I thought I had read somewhere that exceptionally strong cyclones can have a cyclonic circulation to a higher level (not sure if there is a corresponding increase in the height of the troposphere with that, or if a 'shorter' anticyclone just really cranks out the outflow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 14, 2011 Share Posted July 14, 2011 Starting to wrap up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 It'll probably rapidly unravel, just like cyclones usually do as they approach Japan. Meh... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Meh... #9's normally go nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 #9's normally go nuts. If it can shake that dry air to the N...the 'cape' doesn't seem to be an issue... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 uhm, okay we have JMA upgrading the invest in the Philippine Sea into a TS... TS Tokage.. TS 1107 (TOKAGE) Issued at 04:05 UTC, 15 July 2011<Analyses at 15/03 UTC>Scale-Intensity-Center positionN14°05'(14.1°) E132°55'(132.9°)Direction and speed of movementESE Slowly Central pressure1002hPaMaximum wind speed near the center18m/s(35kt)Maximum wind gust speed25m/s(50kt)Area of 30kt winds or moreS240km(130NM) N130km(70NM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 It's really hard for this to go RI given its large size... will probably reach Major status but w/o the RI stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 The JTWC is holding firm Re: a significant Japan threat. The latest forecast has it coming ashore on Shikoku with winds of ~110 kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 Tokage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Tokage It's getting fiona'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I'm getting weenie tingles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I'd want it to come a bit west of the JTWC forecast just so that we can get a look of it on radar down in the ryukyus. Anyways, looks like it's had some setbacks while I was asleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 tokage is getting absolutely devastated by ma-on's outflow http://www.goes.noaa.gov/guam/guamloops/guamwv.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I don't know if there has ever been a study to confirm this (I'm short for time now but will search later), but I'm under the impression that larger tropical cyclones are more susceptible to dry air intrusions, mainly because their larger size gives the system a chance to sample a larger portion of the atmosphere, some of which might be dry air. In the latest TPW image... its hard to argue otherwise that dry air is not contributing to the degraded appearance of the system on microwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 I got to read a UM Master's thesis, that theorized dry air did not substantially weaken well developed cyclones absent of shear. Of course, it was a master's thesis. http://scholarlyrepository.miami.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1089&context=oa_theses&sei-redir=1#search=%22derek%20ortt%20masters%20miami%22 Semi-slow to load. TC size and resistance to dry air, that sounds like something good for a graduate student to study... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 There's some northerly shear... weak to moderate maybe, but maybe just the kind that makes cyclones slowly intensify, or plateau when around major status... high end 4 or 5 requires almost perfect conditions. OTOH, if the upper ridge providing the shear moves little, then Ma-on would encounter less shear down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted July 15, 2011 Author Share Posted July 15, 2011 I got to read a UM Master's thesis, that theorized dry air did not substantially weaken well developed cyclones absent of shear. Of course, it was a master's thesis. http://scholarlyrepository.miami.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1089&context=oa_theses&sei-redir=1#search=%22derek%20ortt%20masters%20miami%22 Semi-slow to load. TC size and resistance to dry air, that sounds like something good for a graduate student to study... Jason Dunion has also done some confirmation work that dry air absent shear is not a detriment to tropical cyclones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Not looking good for people with earthquake, tsunami and nuclear disaster issues... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 KMA Regional Model valid 06Z Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 definitely organizing a little better now...still lopsided but not nearly as bad as earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 definitely organizing a little better now...still lopsided but not nearly as bad as earlier NW side has improved compared to yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matthewweatherwatcher Posted July 15, 2011 Share Posted July 15, 2011 Looks about katrina like size. Big cyclone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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